Make or Break for Ishiba (PART TWO)
Japan Goes to the Polls for a new Election - Districts Analysis
On the 20th of July, Japan goes to the polls once again to vote for a new half-renewal of the House of Councillors, and it comes at a moment of extreme weakness for Prime Minister Ishiba and his minority coalition government with Komeito.
Both ruling parties, the LDP and Komeito, arrive at this election with only one goal in mind: to win enough seats to retain their majority in the Upper House and, at least, avoid losing total control of the Diet, something that could throw Ishiba’s government into complete disarray.
But first of all, thank you so much for your support with the launch of the Nihonpolitics Premium version! It’s been amazing.
You can read PART ONE of the preview, published last week, below:
For a complete reading of this long, detailed preview, click the button below (if you are not already a premium user, or in the free trial offered last week)!
Before starting, I also want here to recommend two other newsletters I have been following for some time.
City Game Pop by my Spanish friend Ivan about Japanese music and videogames! Amazing.
Hidden Japan by Leon, about little-known foods, forgotten locations and all things about Japan from a non-political, non-tourist perspective.
Please check them out!
Back to the election…
To sum up the numbers behind it: the Japanese House of Councillors has a total of 248 seats, with 125 needed for a majority.
The ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito already controls 75 non-contested seats, meaning they must secure at least 50 seats in this election to retain their majority.
Given that the coalition is defending 66 contested seats, losing more than 16 would put their majority at risk.
There are 75 seats up for grabs in this election:
Among these seats, 32 are single-member districts. The remaining seats are in more populated prefectures like Tokyo or Kanagawa, where multiple seats are contested.
Traditionally, the LDP has been strong in district races, especially in the single-member districts. Just take a look at past election results in these districts: this is how the LDP has consistently cemented its victories in the Shinzo Abe era, with overwhelming force in rural and small prefectures around the country.
Just a data point: since 2016, only three (single-member) prefectures have consistently elected non-LDP opposition candidates: Okinawa, Yamagata and Nagano1.
However, this year could be different, according to polls. An effective coalition of opposition parties, especially the CDPJ and JCP, after unifying plenty of their candidates, as well as the presence of Sanseito, the hard-right upstart party running in every single district (prefecture) this election, which is damaging the LDP and eating into its conservative wing's vote share, might be the difference between the Ishiba government retaining their majority in the Upper chamber or not.
Just to start things off, here are five prefectures I'm keeping a close eye on this year:
Kyoto
Tokyo
Kagoshima
Hyogo
Toyama
Let’s go to the seats, race by race, district by district, prefecture by prefecture. You can use it as a guide until election day!
🗾 HOKKAIDO – 3 SEATS
Incumbents:
Takahashi Harumi (LDP) – Up for reelection
Katsube Kenji (CDPJ) - Up for reelection
Iwamoto Tsuyohito (LDP) – Up for re-election
What’s at stake:
Hokkaido has traditionally been very fertile ground for opposition forces, and ideologically, it's a prefecture almost tailor-made for the CDP. This year, I’ll be watching closely to see if the LDP manages to hold on to both of its seats, but it’s going to be tough.
With a DPFP candidate in the mix, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Tamaki’s party manages to capture the third seat, potentially depriving the LDP of securing two. Since Hokkaido regained its third seat in 2016, only once has the opposition taken two out of three seats: that was in 2016, with the old Minshinto. In both 2019 and 2022, the LDP barely managed to retain two seats. In fact, in 2022, a second CDPJ candidate was just 20,000 votes away from winning the final seat.
Amid the LDP’s national struggles in 2024, Hokkaido stood out as one of the few prefectures where the CDPJ won, by a margin of two points in the Lower House election.
Takahashi Harumi – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Katsube Kenji – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Iwamoto Tsuyohito – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Suzuki Masaki – DPFP
Tanaka Yoshihito – Sanseito
Miyauchi Shiori – JCP
Okada Miwako – Ishin
Race outlook:
LDP’s Takahashi and CDPJ’s Katsube have their seats almost assured, but the real fight is for the third seat among the LDP’s second candidate, the DPPF and Sanseito, which has surged to this fight in the last days.
🗾 AOMORI – 1 SEAT
Incumbents:
Takisawa Motome (LDP) – Up for reelection
What’s at stake:
Aomori leans LDP, and its current candidate Takisawa won a second term back in 2019 by less than 10 points. In the most recent race in 2022, the CDPJ incumbent secured re-election. As a result, Aomori’s delegation in the Upper House is currently split: two seats for the LDP and one for the CDPJ.
Despite the prefecture’s conservative leanings, the opposition has remained competitive in Upper House races over the past decades, while in the Lower House, the CDPJ currently holds one of the three single-member districts.
Takisawa Motome – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Fukushi Masumi – CDPJ
Katō Tsutomu – Sanseito
Ogino Yuko – JCP
Race outlook:
Aomori is a very competitive race! In the latest polls, CDPJ’s Fukushi seems to be ahead, but it’s very narrow. Taking the LDP’s incumbent down in Aomori would be a step in the CDPJ’s quest for a complete LDP wipeout in Tohoku.
🗾 IWATE – 1 SEAT
Incumbents:
Yokosawa Takanori (CDPJ) – Up for reelection
What’s at stake:
Historically, Iwate Prefecture has been one of the most opposition-leaning areas in the entire country. That’s why it made national headlines in 2022 when the LDP, with Hirose Megumi, won a seat in Iwate in the House of Councillors, their first since 1992. It didn’t last long, however: after her resignation, a 2024 special election brought the seat back to the CDPJ.
This July, the CDPJ aims to maintain both seats. Up for re-election is Yokosawa Takanori, who won by a slim margin back in 2019. But this year, he starts from a stronger position, especially after the doubts and internal divisions that plagued the local CDP delegation in recent years2.
Yokosawa Takanori – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Oikawa Taisuke – Sansei
Hirano Tatsuo – LDP
Race outlook:
In this environment, Yokosawa is favored for re-election and to retain the seat for the CDPJ as an official party candidate, but he faces a very strong challenger. The LDP candidate is Hirano Tatsuo, a former member of the Democratic Party of Japan who has drifted to the right in recent years and is now running as the official LDP candidate. (He was part of the DPJ government back in 2012!) But not only that, Hirano actually held this seat from 2001 to 2019, as a member of various opposition parties.
There’s also a Sanseito candidate in the race who could bleed votes from the LDP’s right flank, potentially easing the CDPJ’s path to re-election.
In 2025, the CDPJ should easily keep Iwate blue.
🗾 MIYAGI – 1 SEAT
Incumbents:
Ishigaki Noriko (CDPJ) – Up for reelection
What’s at stake:
In Miyagi (capital, Sendai), we find one of the most vulnerable CDPJ incumbents in the entire country, in a year where the LDP shouldn’t really be on offense, but this race felt a little different. Back in 2019, Ishigaki Noriko pulled off a miracle, defeating a three-term LDP incumbent by fewer than 10,000 votes in what was actually a good year nationally for the LDP.
I’m watching this race very closely because it presents a contradiction: a weak incumbent defending a vulnerable seat, but also coming just months after the CDPJ swept 4 out of 5 seats in the Lower House here in 2024.
Since 2016, by the way, Miyagi Prefecture lost its second seat, which has heightened the competitiveness of each year in the Upper House between the LDP and the main opposition party of the time.
Ishigaki Noriko – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Ishii Yoshihito – Reiwa
Rorensu Ayako – Sanseito
Ishikawa Mitsujiro – LDP
Race outlook:
This one is a toss-up, or at least that’s what the polls are saying. But there are two catchpoints that make the race even more exciting: the presence of candidates from both Reiwa Shinsengumi on the left and Sanseito on the right. It’s a four-way race for only one seat, and these two minor parties could seriously hamper both the CDPJ and the LDP, splitting the vote and making the outcome far less predictable.
Latest polls, put CDPJ’s Ishigaki AHEAD.
🗾 AKITA – 1 SEAT
Incumbents:
Terata Shizuka (Opposition-leaning independent) – Up for reelection
What’s at stake:
With a similar profile to Aomori, in Akita, the opposition is on the defensive, with their independent candidate Terata Shizuka, who won with over 50% of the vote back in 2019 in an upset race, running for reelection. That year, she became the first non-LDP winner in Akita since 2007, showing just how difficult it is to dislodge the LDP (family note: Terata’s husband is Terata Gaku, a current member of the Lower House from Akita and part of a storied political family in the prefecture).
The 2022 race ended with the LDP winning again, thanks to a divided opposition that ran several CDPJ and DPFP candidates.
That’s not happening this year. Furthermore, the opposition as a whole is arriving in Akita this year with a lot of optimism: in the 2024 Lower House election, both the CDPJ and the DPFP won single-member districts, leaving the LDP with just one seat, a fantastic result for the opposition.
Terata Shizuka – Opposition-aligned independent (INCUMBENT)
Sato Miwako – Sanseito
Nakaizumi Matsuji – LDP
Race outlook:
The 2025 race is a rematch between incumbent Terata Shizuka and former incumbent, now newly selected LDP candidate, Nakaizumi Matsuji (whom she defeated in 2019). It should be a close race in any case. There’s also a Sanseito candidate running and that could easily hurt the LDP’s chances in Akita.
Latest polls show incumbent Terata ahead.
🗾 YAMAGATA – 1 SEAT
Incumbents:
Haga Michiya (Opposition-leaning independent) – Up for reelection
What’s at stake:
Haga Michiya, a one-term incumbent from Yamagata, is running for re-election. In his first bid, he received unified support from all opposition parties and won by just 3 points over an LDP incumbent, a rare pickup. This year, the race looks complex too, with candidates from both Sanseito and the Japanese Communist Party in the mix, the latter of which backed him last time.
Yamagata is a more conservative, LDP-friendly prefecture than it often appears. However, the long-standing presence of an opposition-leaning governor, Yoshimura Mieko (she has been in office since 2009!!), has given the prefecture a patina of competitiveness. In truth, even in last year’s terrible cycle for the LDP nationwide, the party managed to hold all three of its seats in Yamagata.
Nevertheless, the strength of the DPFP will be key in any scenario for Haga Michiya to win: one of the DPFP’s candidates took the other Yamagata UH seat in 2022. As of now, the LDP doesn’t control either of Yamagata’s two seats in the Upper House.
Haga Michiya – Opposition-aligned independent (INCUMBENT)
Satō Tomoaki – Sanseito
Ouchi Rika – LDP
Miidera Osamu – JCP
Race outlook:
This year, the LDP is presenting Ouchi Rika as their candidate. Ōuchi was, by the way, their candidate against Governor Yoshimura in 2021 when she lost by 40 points...
We’ll see if she’s luckier this time.
Public polls show Haga Michiya ahead in the race.
🗾 FUKUSHIMA – 1 SEAT
Incumbents:
Mori Masako (LDP) – Up for reelection
What’s at stake:
In Fukushima, former Minister of Justice under Shinzo Abe, Mori Masako, is seeking a fourth term representing the prefecture, and she should have the upper hand in the race this year too. Back in 2019, she won by double digits, and this time, it should have been similar. But just days before the campaign started, the Japanese Communist Party decided to withdraw its candidate and unify behind the CDPJ. THAT alone has made the race very competitive.
The opposition did have strong results in the 2024 Lower House races, winning 4 out of 5 seats in Fukushima.
Mori Masako – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Ishihara Yozaburo – CDPJ
Oyama Risako – Sanseito
Ochi Hiroyuki – NHK
Race outlook:
Among all the races, single districts in Tohoku, Fukushima is probably the most difficult one for the CDPJ to win. It would almost guarantee a complete wipeout of the LDP in this northern region of Japan. Now, polls show a tied race.
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