Make or Break for Ishiba (PART ONE)
Japan Goes to the Polls for a new Election - Proportional vote Analysis
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Today, I’m excited to share Part One of my preview for the upcoming July 20th House of Councillors election.
Originally, I had planned to publish a single long, deep article on July 13th, but after seeing the interest, I’ve decided to split it into two parts to make it more accessible and focused.
Part One (this post) covers the proportional representation vote, including the main party strategies and how the national vote might unfold. This article is available, in full, with a 7-day free trial, so if you’re curious about Premium, this is a perfect way to explore it risk-free.
Part Two, coming next week, will go into the district races. That article is long! That article will be exclusively for Premium subscribers, but if you start your free trial from today’s post, you’ll be able to read both parts in full!!
Thank you again for reading and supporting this work, and let’s go into Part One!
If you're a paid subscriber, or if you start a free trial now, you’ll have access to both Part One and Part Two, as well as all upcoming pieces!
In this article, I will break down how the proportional vote works in Japan’s House of Councillors election.
On July 20th, when Japan goes to the polls, 50 seats will be filled through national proportional representation, using the following system:
Political parties present open lists.
Voters can either vote for a party as a whole or for a specific candidate within that party’s list.
All votes are then counted, and seats are allocated to parties using the D’Hondt method.
Given the number of seats each party is allocated, following the order of votes for each candidate, they (the candidates) receive a seat.
Since 2019, parties have been allowed to lock certain candidates into secure spots on their list, meaning these individuals can win a seat regardless of how many personal votes they receive.
Previous two elections: 2019 & 2022
Just to set the stage with previous data, let’s take a quick look at the results from the last two elections to the House of Councillors.
The 2019 election was the previous regular contest for these same seats. It turned out to be a strong performance for the LDP, which managed to hold a solid number of district seats and performed well in the proportional vote. This year was also the first election for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and they managed to establish themselves as the main opposition party of the country. It was a necessary step after years of turmoil in the Opposition.
It was also the first UH year for Reiwa Shinsengumi, an insurgent leftist party that received a not insignificant share of support.
2022 was a phenomenal year for the LDP. Held just days after the shocking assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the election took place under the leadership of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and the LDP surged to over 18 million votes in the proportional race.
The only other party that managed to grow was Ishin no Kai, which firmly established itself as the largest opposition force, surpassing the CDPJ and consolidating its position both in Kansai and nationally. Do not expect Ishiin no Kai to held this level of support in 2025 though.
In 2022, only the LDP, Ishin no Kai, the Social Democrats, and our weird friends from anti-NHK grew compared to 2019.
It was also the year Sanseito emerged as a new far-right party on the scene.
TRENDS TO WATCH, IN A FEW WORDS
How high will support for Sanseitō, Japan’s rising far-right force, go?
Will the LDP’s decline be confirmed?
Can the CDPJ, Japan’s main opposition, close the gap with the LDP and return to its old Minshinto-era strength?
Can Ishin no Kai maintain its momentum outside Kansai?
Can the JCP stop the bleeding?
How low does Komeito go in its long, steady decline?
To what extent has Sanseito’s rise disrupted the DPFP’s growth path?
Now, back to 2025!
Candidates for 2025
When it comes to these elections, it’s always interesting to take a closer look at the different party lists presented for the election, to get a sense of the names and figures each party has chosen to represent them.
Historically, some parties, depending on their nature and electoral strength, have placed more emphasis on the proportional vote, while others have found it easier to win district seats directly.
In this part of the preview, I’m taking a look at the proportional lists (比例代表) and some of the candidates each party is fielding, in no particular order.
LDP - 31 CANDIDATES (two locked candidates)
As Japan’s largest party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has enough strength to perform well in both the proportional vote and the district races. That said, compared to other parties, the LDP generally performs better in districts, while its lead in the proportional vote tends to be less overwhelming than one might expect, especially given how often Japan is described as a quasi one-party state…
In the last three elections, the LDP has maintained a stable number of seats in the Upper House proportional vote, hovering around 20 seats. However, in this election, the party is facing a significant decline, potentially dropping to the low teens.
Some notable LDP candidates in the proportional list this year include:
Santo Akiko: Seeking a record ninth term, Satō was the first woman to serve as President of the House of Councillors. Before entering politics, she was a well-known TV talent and actress.
Sugita Mio: A highly controversial choice. Formerly a member of the Lower House representing Hyōgo, Sugita is notorious for her discriminatory and openly racist comments. As a prominent figure on the party’s far right, her inclusion likely reflects the LDP’s need to secure support from that flank.
Sato Masahisa, the best moustache in the Japanese Diet.
https://x.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1941406946927542708 Suzuki Muneo: This is another controversial pick. A veteran politician from Hokkaido known for his pro-Russian stance and ties to Vladimir Putin, Suzuki was expelled from Ishin no Kai after making an unauthorised trip to Russia in 2022. And now, the LDP is bringing him back, and he's receiving widesupport from plenty of fellow party members. He seems popular among the base, so winning a seat is almost assured.
Suzuki Muneo, back in the LDP (https://x.com/official_s_mune/status/1941146366618882526)
AntiNHK party - 3 CANDIDATES
The fringe and eccentric anti-NHK party, led by Tachibana Takashi, made its debut in the 2019 Upper House election, winning a single seat, taken by Tachibana himself, and receiving close to 1 million votes.
In the 2025 election, the party is looking to retain that one seat. It is fielding only three candidates, including Hamada Satoshi, the current holder.
There’s so much to say about them, they’re just plain weird. And in this election, they’ve gone full racist (not my words, their words, by their own admission). It’s likely a reaction to the rise of Sanseito, which seems to be siphoning off part of their base.
CDPJ - 22 CANDIDATES
The CDPJ, as Japan’s main opposition party, has in recent years managed to strike a solid balance between national support in the proportional vote and strength in district races across the country. In this election, the party hopes to increase its seat count by a couple of seats.
In a positive scenario, the party hopes to approach the number of seats won by its predecessor, the Democratic Party (Minshinto), in 2016: over 10 seats.
We’ll see.
Renhō is by far the most famous, and also one of the most controversial (for some), figures on the CDPJ’s list. Last year, she resigned her Upper House seat to make a bid for Governor of Tokyo, a race she ultimately lost. She seemed ready to step back from politics, but the party leadership, despite strong resistance from some members, decided to include her in the proportional list for this election. She is expected to win a seat easily, thanks to strong support from liberal and progressive voters.
Tokyo’s Renho (https://x.com/renho_sha/status/1940703826778194042) Ishikawa Taiga. He won his first term in 2019 and he was one of the first openly gay politicians in Japan.
But the latest polls point to a worrying trend: while the anti-LDP vote could consolidate behind CDPJ candidates in district races, the proportional vote is leaking away from the CDPJ to smaller parties, possibly Reiwa or the Social Democrats. That could easily cap the CDPJ’s growth, falling short of their goal of at least one additional seat in 2025.
Want to keep reading the rest of the party breakdowns, including Komeito, the Communists, Ishin no Kai, Sanseito, Reiwa and more?
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