Too Early to Think About the Future After Suga?
LDP's Sugawara Isshu Resigns, Shootings in Japan and the Vaccination Accelerates
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The Essentials: News and weekly politics about Japan.🏆
Progress on the Vaccination Process of Japan💉
Tweet(s) of the Week💬
Book Recommendation📚
The Essentials: News and weekly politics about Japan.🏆
Shinzo Abe Rises from the Death (Sort of)
In line with the sinking popularity of the Cabinet of Suga Yoshihide, for weeks there have been rumors about a possible comeback of former Prime Minister Abe to the leadership of the LDP and beyond. We don’t now know if he would take such a step, or be invited to, by some party elders that see with unease the direction of the party under Suga’s government. What’s clear is that recently Abe has been back on the news a lot, on TV programs, making publicly clear in some of them that he is “much better” from the health problems that led him to retire last year from office in the first place…Let’s remember that Shinzo Abe to this day continues in the Diet, still a member of the Lower House representing Yamaguchi’s Fourth District.
Last week, in the monthly edition of the right-wing Magazine Hanada, when asked about the future of the LDP post-Suga (Suga must be happy to see his predecessor so happily talking about what comes after him uh…), Shinzo Abe brought up four party heavyweights, all of which have been on everyone’s minds for years:
Motegi Toshimitsu「茂木敏充」: With a low public profile and a 9-term member of the Lower House representing Tochigi’s 5th District, in 2019 Motegi became the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan with Suga Yoshihide as the new Prime Minister. Previously, in the government of Shinzo Abe, he had been METI (Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry) for two years, besides other roles in the Cabinet. Within the party, He is a member of the Takeshita Faction「竹下派・平成研究会」
Kato Katsunobu「加藤勝信」: A party stalwart with 18 years of experience representing the conservative 5th District of Okayama Prefecture, Kato became in 2019, with the government of Prime Minister Suga, the new Chief Cabinet Secretary, replacing Suga himself in a role he excelled at during Abe’s tenure. To this day, Kato has not had the public exposure Suga went through as the face of Abe’s government before 2019. Previously, Kato also occupied the role, in two different stints, of Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare. Just like, Motegi, Kato is also a member of the Takeshita Faction「竹下派・平成研究会」
Shitamua Hakubun「下村博文」: In comparison to the previous two men, Shitamura is a party-man and a loyal soldier of the current LDP Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro as the current Party Policy Research Chair. At the same time, he is a politician with much less governing experience, as he only was the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology for three years during Abe’s tenure as Prime Minister. A politician that started at the bottom, being part of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly representing Itabashi-Ku, before making the jump to national politics, since 1996, he’s been representing the 9th District of Tokyo in the Lower House of the Diet (Itabashi Ward). Despite his control of the seat, he’s always won by underwhelming margins, taking only 50% of the vote on just two occasions (in 2014 & 2005), which makes it a district that could change hands to the Opposition if they manage to unify behind a single candidate. Shimamura Hakubun is a member of the Hosoda Faction, the LDP’s largest one 「細田派・清和政策研究会」
Kishida Fumio「岸田文雄」: For years, Kishida Fumio has been seen as an obvious heir to Shinzo Abe, and future LDP president and Prime Minister, as they appeared to be particularly close. However, recent circumstances and elections have greatly damaged his standing, weakening his position within the party even though he is currently the chair of his own faction「岸田派・宏池会」. The corruption scandal of Kawai Anri back in his hometurf of Hiroshima and his party’s loss last April in the Special Election for the Upper House, under his watch, has made of him somewhat of a pusillanimous figure, incapable of taking control of politics in his own backyard. Since 1993, Kishida has been representing the District 1 of Hiroshima, in the downtown of the city with such ease, that has allowed him to take several responsibilities in the cabinet of Shinzo Abe. In 2017 he became Minister of Defense and later Minister of Foreign Affairs for more than five years.
These four names must surprise nobody but…where is Kono Taro (current Defense Minister and Vaccine Czar)?
👀
Reiwa Shinsengumi Becomes Key to the Strategy of the Opposition for the Next Election 🟠
Since the left-wing populist Reiwa Shinsengumi political party arrived on the scene in Japan in 2019, the group led by former actor Yamamoto Taro has been frequently on the news, thanks to its leader's penchant for public appearances and different somewhat excentric proposals. In the last months, Yamamoto Taro has been especially focused on a proposal to lower the consumption tax 「消費税」to 5%, an idea that divides the Opposition parties but he considers essential in the fight coming ahead against the LDP.
A few months ago, a working group1 was formed by 14 members of the Diet from parties like Reiwa & CDPJ; recently they came up with a final proposal:
To reduce the consumption tax to 5% until the crisis created by the “Covid pandemic” subsides.
To maintain the rate at 5% in exchange for raising the corporate tax and/or the personal income tax.
In preliminary talks last year, Reiwa had been proposing a complete elimination of the consumption tax, a position untenable for the CDPJ who seeks instead to lower the current rate. The final proposal of this working group is not binding for either party; however, it shows a path forward. Yamamoto Taro has been signaling for months that an agreement on lowering the consumption tax is a ‘sine qua non’ requirement for his party to cooperate and coordinate candidates with the rest of the Opposition parties. It is of utmost importance for that to take place if the Opposition as a whole doesn’t want Reiwa to play the role of a spoiler in tossup districts, some of them in Tokyo, for example.2
LDP’s Sugawara Ishuu to Resign as Member of the Diet
For months, as the readers of my newsletter know, a corruption scandal had been engulfing LDP’s Sugawara Isshu, once it became know Tokyo Prosecutors had been researching several instances of gifts (of all kind, including cash money) given by the MP and his secretaries to constituents of his district in Tokyo, in a possible violation of the electoral law.
Finally this week, it appears that the LDP showed him the door. First, the media reported that Sugawara Isshu would leave the LDP and stay as a member of parliament. However, on Tuesday, he made public his intention to resign altogether his seat in the Diet representing Tokyo’s 9th District after 18 years. His resignation3 leaves a headache4 for the party in a tossup district, located in Nerima Ward, that could be picked up by the CDPJ in the next election with rather ease. He had not been a very strong incumbent given the tilt of the district. We’ll just have to wait for the next LDP candidate.
In the meantime, the Secretary-General of the LDP, Nikai Toshihiro, was boasting yesterday, disingenuously, of how politics are becoming cleaner thanks to the effort of the LDP of rotting out corruption cases like this out of the party…seriously. The case has resurfaced the “non-zero” possibility of the CDPJ presenting a ‘no-confidence motion’ against the Suga Government, a possibility they had denied in recent months. Nikai himself has warned the CDPJ that such a move would bring about a dissolution of the Diet.
Kobe & Okayama at the Center of the (Decreasing) Gun Violence in Japan 🔫
A new shooting last month in the city of Okayama right to the news the state of gun ownership in Japan, the rareness of shootings and the safety of Japan in comparison to other countries, as reported by the Police White Paper.
In the last years, this violence, expressed mainly through shootings, has become embedded, in its low numbers, in the cities of Kobe in Hyogo Prefecture and in Okayama, Okayama Prefecture, home ground of several violent organizations 「暴力団体」. Nevertheless, the decrease in violence and the number of shootings since the 1980s is evident, as you can see in the chart below:
The decrease is consistent throughout the years: from a high of 299 shootings alone in 1989 to just 13 in 2019, even though there was an uptick of violence in the early 2000s that was quickly cut down in half.
In recent years, the Japanese Police has managed to a crackdown in the smuggling of handgun and rifles to the country (from Russia, China and the Philippines, mainly), what may have played a role in the reduction in the number of shootings. However, they do keep happening, thanks to the old guns introduced to Japan decades ago, which were never seized and remain in the hands of the shrinking organized crime.
Progress on the Vaccination Process of Japan💉
Each time I make the weekly charts about the vaccination process in Japan, I become happy about the direction it is finally taking.
The vaccination process in Japan is in full swing, finally! Last week, Japan managed to administer more than half a million doses each day!
The daily rate is set at 500k doses, inching closer to 600k this week. On the weekend, the rhythm is also growing to more than 1 million doses (Saturday, Sunday & Monday). Perhaps, by the end of June or in July, we could get to 1 million shots per day. 👏👏
On a weekly basis, Japan keeps growing. Last week, almost 3.4 million doses administered: a healthy pace of 2.8 million first doses, mainly on Japanese seniors, while there was a dropoff of second doses (from 895k to 563k doses).
Finally, but slowly, we are starting to see higher rates of vaccination, at least with one dose in several prefectures around Japan. Nationally, the rate of the population partially vaccinated reaches just 8%, but some rural prefectures of Japan are going up, crossing the 10% line in at least eight of them:
The share of completely immunized in Japan is substantially lower, though, not reaching 3% of the Japanese population. As expected, there’s a great degree of disparity between regions, with the most-populated prefectures of Japan in the lower-end:
Such a nice chart! Total numbers:
10.3 million first doses administered: 8.2% of the Japanese population is partially vaccinated.
3.6 million second doses administered: 2.9% of the Japanese population is fully immunized.
Tweet(s) of the Week💬
Sometimes on Twitter, you can find gems like these two 👇🤩
Wow Tokyo 🤩
Recommendation Book📚
Today I would like to bring a recommendation of one of the best books I have recently read about Japanese politics. His author, too, is someone who encouraged me to start this newsletter and I am are very grateful for his support and kind words in our few interactions on Twitter: he is @observingjapan.
Tobias Harris’ “The Iconoclast” is a masterful biography of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, his upbringing and the ways in which he did (not) change Japan through his record-tenure at the top of the Japanese government.
A thick but very easy readable book, “The Iconoclast” is an essential book for those of us that love Japan and its politics. A great addition to the small but growing cohort of books in English, or otherwise, that deal with Japan and politics, a field I would like to think I am contributing, if just a little, to expand with this newsletter.
Make no mistake and go buy it!!
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The working group has been led by Reiwa’s Yamamoto Taro (who is not currently a member of the Diet) & Mabuchi Sumio「馬淵澄夫」a 6-term member of the CDPJ from Nara 1st District.
To this day, Reiwa Shinsengumi has made public candidates for 20 SMDs, 6 of them in Tokyo. Their presence could deprive the biggest party, the CDPJ, of rather easily winning these seats; the goal is to face the LDP incumbents with only one opposition candidate in order not to divide the vote…
In recent hours, the Opposition is alleging that Sugawara Isshu decided to resign within the month of June in order to receive the full amount of the summer bonus of 28k$😒😮 Apparently, he might be thinking about giving it back after the public backlash.
Perhaps the headache was allowing Sugawara Isshu to become once again a candidate for this seat in the Diet…