And Just Like That, PM Suga is No More

Meanwhile, the Opposition Parties Finally Start to Ramp Up their Cooperation

Hello everyone, welcome to a new post of my NIHONPOLITICS newsletter.

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Japanese Politics is entering a very exciting phase with the coming race for the leadership of the LDP in late September and the general election several weeks after.

Get ready!!

Meanwhile,

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I come today with political information only. 申し訳ございません

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The Essentials: News and weekly politics about Japan.🏆

The End of Suga Yoshihide as Prime Minister of Japan

Some weeks ago, Prime Minister Suga of Japan received the most painful blow, in a series of electoral defeats himself and his party, the LDP, have been suffering through 2021: a fellow ally and party member lost in the race for Mayor of Yokohama, Japan’s second city and Suga’s own home turf. It’s, after all, a city he’s represented in the Lower House of the Diet for two decades.

The situation became untenable for Suga and for his party. It was, then, amid rumbling and rumors, that the Prime Minister announced that he had the intention to change the leadership of his party including the post of Secretary-General, held by Nikai Toshihiro, the LDP’s longest member at that high-ranking position. The movement was intended to give new vigor to the cabinet and the party, barely a month before the dissolution of the House, which presented itself (and still does) really complicated for the conservatives.

Last Thursday, Suga went to Nikai and other party executives to show his idea.

In the end, when Suga looked for support in restructuring the LDP top positions, he didn’t find any backup support: VicePM Aso Taro, and his own faction leader, warned the PM about how his unpopularity threatened to drag down the whole party; former PM Abe couldn’t commit either to support Suga’s changes and his own future.

Then, his presidency crumbled like a house of cards.

Suga visited Nikai Toshihiro, the Secretary-General who had told him “replace him without hesitation”, if that’s what Suga needed, and tried to dissuade the Prime Minister from resigning.

It didn’t work: Suga bowed out.

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

🇯🇵🗳In the last hours, PM Suga announced that he won't run for reelection as LDP leader in September. Thus, it's the end of his time as Japan's PM too. Party heavyweights are lining up to succeed him: former Ministers Kishida, Takaichi or Vaccine Czar Kono Taro are running.

I don’t think anyone expected this en, this quickly, for the prime ministership of Suga.

Hikosaemon @hikosaemon

Koizumi cries in front of press over Suga’s resignation. Expresses appreciation for PM’s strong support for his Environment portfolio

限界男@総選挙まで安倍・菅政権振り返り中 @genkaiotoko

涙ながらに #菅総理 への”感謝”を語った小泉大臣。完全に国民の感覚から遊離して、別の世界に行ってしまったようだ。 #小泉進次郎 環境相 「感謝しかないですね。いっぱい思い出すとね、言葉浮かんできますけど (泣)」 「こんなに仕事をした政権が正当な評価を受けていない」 https://t.co/wSvp9H1xhc

On Friday, Suga announced his intention not to run for the presidency of the LDP in late September, effectively ending his time as the Prime Minister of Japan just one year after he succeeded Shinzo Abe in the Kantei.

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

📖"On Thursday, Suga visited Aso Taro, to talk about new positions in the LDP, who frankly told him: 'If we go with you「お前」we'll sink until Kono Taro runs'. Afterwards, Abe didn't guarantee support for the PM either. On friday, Suga told Nikai he was out".

西日本新聞 東京報道部 @nnp_tokyohoudou

菅義偉首相の突然の退陣意向表明。舞台裏を東京報道部の記者たちが追いました。 「お前と一緒に沈められねえだろ」退陣表明前夜、“2A”から首相に三くだり半 https://t.co/a97mk6Z3CA #西日本新聞

In the last week or so, the race for the presidency of the LDP has become wide-open following the earthquake of Suga’s retirement. On the 17th of September, the campaign for the presidency of the LDP will start until it’s voted on the 29th of September. The different factions of the LDP are already scrambling to find candidates and supporters in a race that’s become surprisingly fluid and tough to disentangle.

The internal factions of the Liberal Democratic Party will work as the baseline for the vote. Currently, this is the internal division of the party:

Hosoda Faction 「細田派・清和政策研究会」96 members

Aso Faction「麻生派・志公会」53 members

Takeshita Faction「竹下派・平成研究会」52 members

Nikai Faction「二階派・志帥会」47 members

Kishida Faction「岸田派・宏池会」46 members

Ishiba Faction「石破派・水月会」17 members

Ishihara Faction「石原派・近未来政治研究会」10 members

No faction: 62 members

Nowadays, there are 3 official candidates running to replace Suga as the leader of the LDP, and, thus, Prime Minister of Japan, until the election. Let’s see them:

KISHIDA FUMIO - Hiroshima 1区「岸田文雄」

Before Prime minister Suga announced he was bowing out of the LDP race, Kishida Fumio, a former Minister of Defense and Foreign Affairs with Abe, had declared his challenge to the incumbent.

Kishida Fumio, proposing new economic measures (Source: https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/129641)

In comparison to the rest of the candidates, Kishida Fumio has experience in running for president of the LDP. He already challenged Suga (and lost) last year when he succeeded Abe in the Kantei as the 自民党総裁. He has several weeks of the campaign in his back, and he’s been very proactive in proposing new policy measures; he’s even called for leaving behind the “neoliberal capitalist” economy of former PM Koizumi and the early 2000s, positioning himself as a kind of a “compassionate conservative”.

However, Kishida Fumio runs the risk of, in order to not lose face in the race, pivoting too much to the right. The accusation of a shallow character has been recurring throughout his career.

Tom Phuong Le @profTLe

I’ve been saying for years, Kishida is the Marco Rubio of Japanese politics. Afraid to take a stance out of fear of compromising his bid for the top post, but will play up his toughness for a short time when passed over, and fall flat. The public sees right through it.

Tobias Harris @observingjapan

Forget running as the kindler, gentler post-Abe candidate. Kishida seems to be running as the "Abe 3.0" candidate. https://t.co/YB3K8deOSk

We’ll see how much can his support grow beyond his own Kishida Faction, which is expected to line up behind him. I worry he might end up squeezed between the next two candidates, without much space to maneuver.

TAKAICHI SANAE - Nara 2区「高市早苗」

Takaichi Sanae announcing her run for the leadership of the LDP (Source: https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/129678)

On Wednesday, Takaichi Sanae officially launched his candidacy to the presidency of the LDP, becoming the first woman from the party to do so since Yuriko Koike attempted it in 2008. A representative of Nara District 2, she is off as a favorite of the most conservative and rightist wing of the party, with plenty of commentators and supporters out online already cheering her, even though, according to the polls and analysts, she might have a low ceiling of support even within the party.

Tobias Harris @observingjapan

So Abe's support for Takaichi... 1) Does the Hosokawa faction go along? Clearly that changes the dynamics. 2) Does the faction actually split over who to support? 3) Does factional voting break down across the party, at least in the first round?

産経ニュース @Sankei_news

自民総裁選　安倍氏は高市氏を支持 https://t.co/oyGIokMjpa 出馬を表明している岸田文雄前政調会長と出馬の意向を示す河野太郎ワクチン担当相は情報発信に努め、石破茂元幹事長は対応を検討。

A conservative firebrand, she has some problems with past statements, policies as well as dubious connections that have been resurfacing in the last days after her name was floated to succeed PM Suga in the coming election.

SNA Japan @ShingetsuNews

Sanae Takaichi also has been pushing legislation for many years, as recently as this year, that would give prison sentences of up to two years for "individuals who damage, remove, or defile the Japanese flag with the purpose of insulting the country." (MP) #SanaeTakaichi #Japan

😳😬

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

Not very nice photos of Sanae Takaichi, candidate for the LDP leadership who's already received the support of former PM Abe. She is the candidate of the hard right against Kono Taro. Yikes😬

大神ひろし @ppsh41_1945

テロを肯定するネオナチ団体「国家社会主義日本労働者党」の代表とツーショット写真を撮った高市早苗が内閣総理大臣になるなんて絶対に嫌だ。 #高市早苗さんを総理大臣に https://t.co/7Oy4S7d7S2

Belonging to the Hosoda faction, the party’s biggest, she reived a considerable boost last week when former Prime Minister Abe announced that he’d be supporting her in case she ran. Everyone is still perplexed at how quickly Abe came out for her when there are reports that her right-wing positions turn off a lot of fellow party members, even within their Hosoda Faction, not exactly sold on her candidacy just yet.

Nevertheless, Abe seems ready to use his power behind the scenes as a new kingmaker, the question is if anyone might follow…

Tobias Harris @observingjapan

"Everyone is confused by Mr. Abe's intentions." So says an unnamed Hosoda faction member in an article that suggests very little support for Takaichi in the party's largest faction -- or any other for that matter.

jiji.com保守票照準、「安倍後継」アピール　高市氏、支援期待も細田派不満―自民党総裁選：時事ドットコム自民党総裁選への出馬を表明した高市早苗前総務相（６０）は、安倍政権の継承と保守色の強い政策を前面に打ち出した。支援を受ける安倍晋三前首相の影響力を背景に、保守層の支持獲得を狙う。ただ、党内最大で安倍氏の出身派閥・細田派には高市氏支援に不満が出ており、どこまで議員票を固められるか見通せない。

Takaichi Sane is still a longshot, even if less so after former Prime minister Abe threw his support behind her. I cannot understand yet the intention or reasoning behind Abe’s staunch support for her at this point.

Read more about Takaichi in this long and detailed thread👌:

Tobias Harris @observingjapan

Takaichi Sanae has entered the race for the LDP leadership. I took a long look at her political career -- and strident right-wing beliefs -- in this thread.

Tobias Harris @observingjapan

All right, let's take a look at Takaichi Sanae. https://t.co/ZTMWSXaeUb https://t.co/5QqntHVs9e

KONO TARO - Kanagawa 15区「河野太郎」

The last name to throw his hat in the ring is Kono Taro.

In the next hours, the loquacious current Minister for Administrative Reform, Vaccine Czar and known Twitter user is set to declare his candidacy for the presidency of the LDP.

Kono Taro will announce his candidacy this weekend (Source: https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP995FD8P99UTFK00N.html)

A member of the Aso faction, until now the support from his fellow members had been silent, with the leader Aso Taro, current VicePM, warning¹ Kono about running “this time”. Nevertheless, it looks like the faction and Aso himself will come around.

Clearly, Kono Taro is the favorite of the public, and the LDP rank and file, polls show. Also, he seems to be popular among younger members of the party, worried about being dragged down in the coming election without the added value of a long-term incumbency.

Reports from last week pointed out that PM Suga himself might back Kono in an open race, even though the situation is still fluid until all the official candidates declare next week.

In the meantime, political watchers are still waiting for what steps Ishiba Shigeru, former Secretary-General of the LDP, might take in the race. It’s not expected that he runs this time, however, his endorsement would carry both pros and cons for whoever receives it:

• He’s popular among the LDP rank and file and the Japanese public as a whole

• He’s very unpopular within the party and among the top executives, including other faction bosses. Seen as an outsider.

I’m a fan of his, to be honest.

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

Gotta love it. Japanese politician Ishiba Shigeru enthusiastically singing the LDP's party hymn in 'sign language'. Inclusivity.✌🏻

Despite the existence of the factions, there seems to be a movement towards allowing MPs to vote freely, without the whipping of their own groups. At least, that’s what younger members of the LDP are asking in the last hours.

Tobias Harris @observingjapan

With a general election imminent, perhaps not surprising that members will try to vote in a way that they think maximizes their chances.

Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace

Bosses except for Nikai (bad blood with Kishida) leaning towards Kishida but seems increasingly likely may have to accept that their members will vote freely.

This great article in the Yomiuri Shinbun points out that among the 297 members of the Lower Hosue, for example, 126 have 3 or fewer terms in office. They are the kind of members fretting about their seats.

The end of Suga will also surely bring changes to the relationship between the LDP and Osaka Ishin no Kai. Its leaders, especially the Mayor of Osaka Matsui Ichiro, enjoyed during years a good relationship with both Abe and Suga, to the resentment of a large part of the local LDP (the party’s position in Osaka is likely the weakest one in all Japan, seriously challenged by another dominant, right-wing party). Without Suga on the scene, it remains to be seen what kind of relationship will develop between the two, having in mind that there are scenarios where the LDP would need Ishin to form a government if it loses a lot of seats in the coming election.

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

New angle to the end of Suga: Osaka Ishin no Kai loses an ally in Tokyo. The current Mayor of Osaka Matsui Ichiro, who is also retiring from politics, was particularly close to both Abe & Suga. We'll see how the relationship develops with a new LDP leader in place. #Osaka

For the remaining political season in Japan: the race for the leadership of the LDP and the general election sometime in October, make sure to follow me on Twitter where I get to engage some of the better on Japamese politics that there are out there. They do certainly inform my tweets and analysis.

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Cooperation Among the Opposition Parties Takes Form

Pressed by the quick resignation of Suga, the imminent election of a new President of the LDP and the quickly approaching general election, this week the main opposition parties for Japan took a significant step into coordinating both: policy measures and their candidates in Single-Member Districts up and down Japan.

Policy and candidate coordination is a sine-qua-non requirement if the Opposition wants to dent the power the LDP enjoys in Japan.

🔵📂 First, at a news conference on Tuesday, Edano Yukio (Saitama 5区), the leader of the CDP, presented a set of policies his government would implement in the first cabinet meeting if they govern. Namely,

1) Supplementary Budget

2) Anti-Covid Czar

3) 2022 budget

4) Appoint the 6 candidates rejected by LDP government to the Japan Science Council

5) Release documents and camera files from the death of a Sri Lanka woman in immigration detention.

6) Publish documents from the 'Akagi File'. Difficult scandal from the Abe era.

7) Uncover the truth from PM Abe's 'Sakura Viewing' scandal.

Just in case of any doubts, Edano had to explain that these measures don't include bill proposals or amendments (we were wondering about gay marriage or the different surname policy, certainly).

Policy Coordination

In a very significant step, on Wednesday, the leaders of four Opposition parties appeared together at a meeting of the Civil society organization Shimin Rengo「市民連合」to announce a joint policy agreement for the next general election:

From Left to Right: Fukushima Mizuho (SDP), Kazuo Shii (JCP), Edano Yukio (CDP) & Yamamoto Taro (Reiwa). The DPFP decided not to participate.

Four years after the implosion of the Japanese mainstream opposition, with the disappearance of the Democratic, the creation of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the already-dead Paty of Hope, it’s good to see four of the main five opposition parties take a step into sharing minimum policy proposals. It’s the only way forward. Under the leadership of the CDPJ, the largest, the Communist party, the Social-Democrats and even Reiwa Shinsengumi publicly aligned themselves to change the “LDP regime” 「与党政権」 which for democratic healthiness, it’s been going for too long already, we can agree.

This agreement is an important step not because of the content of the deal, which is relevant too, but because it shows a degree of unity and coordination among the Opposition parties that would have been difficult to imagine before. Especially, the presence of Reiwa is significant. It seems his leader Yamamoto Taro has decided to be a team player. A change that was sorely needed but of which we were skeptical it would take place.

If you want to know about the details of the agreement, check out this thread:

Tobias Harris @observingjapan

Here's the general election policy pact concluded by the @CDP2017 @jcp_cc @SDPJapan @yamamototaro0 @shiminrengo.

The Democratic Party for the People in the end refused to participate in the joint signing of the agreement. Their refusal has been based on two general reasons:

1. Policywise, they don’t support doing away with nuclear power and expect stronger support for the US-Japan Alliance, among others.

2. Practically, some members of the DPFP are not comfortable aligning themselves with the Japanese Communist Party and prefer to restrict their cooperation to the CDP, even if so.

In a press conference late Wednesday the Secretary-General of the party explained its reason, reiterating though that they expect to continue talking with the CDP and others for the coming election.

Candidate Coordination

The next step IS to coordinate candidates among all the parties. After the signature of the agreement, they confirmed that adjusting the candidates 「候補調整」will be part of the coming negotiations.

After doing some research, this is the state of inter-party competition (parties with concurring candidates in the same district) in the map of Japan:

1. CDP-JCP: 70 districts

2. CDP-Reiwa: 14 districts, 6 of them in Tokyo

3. CDP-DPFP: 3 districts

4. CDP-SDP: 3 districts

Looking at these numbers, it's becoming essential for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to advance in two directions: with the Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi:

• Coordination with the communists makes the backbone of the joint opposition effort. It's not new and it's been advancing for months. We should expect news soon. The strength of the JCP locally allows it to run plenty of candidates almost everywhere, even though they must acknowledge that some of them have to bow out in favor of the CDP, especially in competitive districts.

• Even if it's more restricted, I think coordinating with Reiwa would be a great success for the Opposition (CDP). Although they do not have a great number of candidates, its focus on Tokyo (6) and Chiba (2) puts at risk absolutely winnable seats where coordination is a must; seats where the Opposition needs to fight one on one against the LDP to win.

• The DPFP has confirmed before that they won't have candidates in the district where the larger CDP already is present. That limits a lot their maneuvering. Furthermore, the party is aiming for limited, specific districts where they have incumbents (4).

• The SDP faces a difficult election in 2021 after a large part of itself chose to merge with the CDP last year.

The upsides of carrying out effective coordination of the candidates is very clear: there are *dozens* of seats leaning towards the Opposition if they manage to find a single candidate to face the LDP incumbents.

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

📊🚀According to research by the Nikkan Gendai, there are between '60-70 SMDs' where the Opposition could win if the present unified candidates. Adding the ±40 they already control, it gets them 100-110 out of 289 SMDs, without adding proportional seats news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/ed3fc…

news.yahoo.co.jp【独自集計】自公を追い詰める逆転勝利「64選挙区」野党4党は共闘加速、政策協定合意で“受け皿”に（日刊ゲンダイDIGITAL） - Yahoo!ニュース自民党総裁選はしょせん、自民党というコップの中の権力闘争。サル山のボスに誰が選ばれようが、国民生活を無視したコロナ無策や国会召集を拒否するような党の体質は変わらない。

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By the way,

since last week I’m doing a long twitter thread about the most interesting and competitive Single-Member Diostrctis of the whole country.

It’s an exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis that I hope you all are enjoying. In the coming days I’ll accelerate the pace so I can be done with it soon. Please go check it out!

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

🚨The exciting part of the year for Japanese politics is rapidly approaching: with the race for the leadership of the LDP upon us, the general election for the Lower House is getting closer and closer.📆 Reports say that it could take place by Mid-October! Thus, this project:➕

Do not forget to use the fantastic tool from CANDIDATES 2021 to game out possible elections results. 🤭

Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics

🗳️🇯🇵🗾Let's start! nihonpolitics.substack.com/welcome You can support me here if you like my work😊🍀: ko-fi.com/nihonpolitics paypal.com/paypalme/Nihon…

paypal.comPay Javier Delgado Chacón using PayPal.MeGo to paypal.me/Nihonpolitics and type in the amount. Since it’s PayPal, it’s easy and secure. Don’t have a PayPal account? No worries.

And get ready for what’s coming, because it’s going to be crazyyyyyy

Derek Wessman | デレック @dwvcd

Information obtained today from someone who is very familiar with what’s happening in LDP / national politics: No one knows what the hell is going to happen

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1. Words from Aso Taro on Kono Taro running: “麻生が止めているという話を作って書いていたけど、俺は一回も最初から“やるなら、しっかりとやれ”と。勝たない選挙ならやめた方がいいと、色々な話はしょっちゅうしている。やる以上は勝たないと。俺も（総裁選）4回やったけど、2回目は勝つところでやったからね。そう言った意味で、いろいろ、負 後々面倒くさいから、ちゃんとやることやらないとダメだよと、激励はしましたけど “. Source : https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/c9cbcb328294d5d09f6232dca6f70f645545c3e9