Yokohama Deals PM Suga the Latest, Most Painful Blow
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Hello everyone. Welcome to the NihonPolitics Newsletter, a space I opened back in April where I bring news from Japan and Japanese politics, in English (!) so everyone can get to know, a little more, what’s going in Japan right now. Thank you for signing up! You’ll receive a new post every Friday in your inbox. We are close to 400 already! (this is too crazy😄)
Today I bring an analysis of last weekend’s race for Mayor of Yokohama, the last preview before the general election to the Lower House of the Diet takes place, likely in October. :D
Buckle up for what’s coming!
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Election News🗳️
Election for Mayor of Yokohama, Kanagawa
Last Sunday, the results from the Yokohama Mayoral Election dealt Prime Minister Suga a final blow that will have lasting effects in the Japanese political world just when the country faces a general election in just two months in the midst of its worst wave of covid. The election of Yamanaka Takeharu, the Opposition candidate, as mayor of a city PM Suga himself currently represents in the Diet, signaled a deep and growing repudiation of the LDP and Suga himself amid an uncontrollable fifth wave of covid, in terms of cases and hospitalizations.
It’s just the latest defeat for the party of the Prime minister, after a year that has been, succinctly, a disaster for them, with negative results as a consequence of the growing discontent of the Japanese people over the lack of control of the pandemic as well as a slower-than-expected vaccination process; a situation that has brought the approval rating of Suga to record lows and it finds its reflection in the election results:
In last Sundays’ election, turnout clocked at 49%, just shy of 50%. It was a very strong number for a local race that just four years earlier had only brought 37% of the people to the polls.
The nationalized politics, the question around the development of a casino, and the widespread disapproval of PM Suga made the race not only competitive but worthy of attention in the age of covid19.
The highest turnout, over 52%, took place in the southern wards that border with the affluent coastal cities of Kamakura & Zushi, places of special strength for the Opposition parties. On the other end, the lowest turnout was found on the waterfront of the city, in the wards closest to where the IR project and the casino were expected to be established (in Minato Mirai) and the central districts of the city. Tsurumi Ward houses port settings close to the industrial areas of Kawasaki.
It’s great to see such a turnout, high for a local race, even though it’s still way too low.
You can check out here the NHK exit polls:
YAMANAKA TAKEHARU (Opposition candidate) ・506,392（33.6%）
Last Sunday, an unknown science professor from the University of Yokohama won the race for mayor of his city. Yamanaka Takeharu defeated the incumbent mayor and other 6 candidates in the largest race in the history of the city. Thanks to the support of all the Opposition parties: from the CDPJ and the JCP to the right-of-center Rengo Union, and others in the business circles of the city like the “Hama Don” who were against developing this resort in their harbor.
Finally, Takeharu crossed the 25% line needed to avoid a rerun and won by double digits the office of Mayor of Yokohama.
In the end, he won over 33% of the vote, shattering expectations. He had worse results in some LDP-leaning districts on the Yokohama Harbor, while he only lost one:
Tsurumi Ward, on the border with Kawasaki City, was the only ward where he didn’t reach 30% of the vote, losing it by 1489 votes (The runnerup Okonogi Hachiro, the unofficial LDP candidate, represents Tsurumi Ward in the Diet).
Aoba Ward (36.9%) and Sakae Ward (37.2%) were his best ones, following strong support from Opposition supporters as well as independents, a combination that must please the parties of the Opposition.
Besides the wards around the harbor that those that would have anchored the IR project, Yamanaka Takeharu dominated the city winning over 30% in a 6-way race. It was a strong win from someone as unknown as Yamanaka, who ended up defeating a mayor, a former governor, and a current member of the House (plus a former one). Impressive indeed.
The spike in turnout, as well as the support of self-declared independent/nonpartisan voters decisively for the Opposition candidate, doesn't bode well for the LDP in the coming general election (the famed floating voters might be awakening!).
It was a great and excruciating victory for Yamanaka, fought in a very difficult scenario: a runaway pandemic in Japan with record cases and hospitalizations that are putting a special strain in the healthcare system of the Tokyo region, including Yokohama and the Prefecture of Kanagawa
By the way, Yamanaka Takeharu also won the district of Prime Minister Suga… 👀
OKONOGI HACHIRO (LDP candidate)・325,947（21.6%）
Okonogi Hachiro, the unofficial LDP candidate in the race, had a disappointing result, barely crossing the 20% line, at a far distance from the winner:
He lost by 12 points & -180.445 fewer votes.
Okonogi Hachiro, who had failed to earn the endorsement of his party, the LDP, once he declared his opposition to the IR project, struggled to gain ground and even lost it as the campaign advanced. His position was very difficult from the start: a conservative politician against a project pushed by the establishment right in Yokohama and supported by the national government, which was deeply unpopular though with the people.
Looking at the map, one can see He only won one district in the city, Tsurumi Ward with over 30% of the vote.
Tsurumi along with neighboring Yokohama Ward, in which he was defeated by a hair, form the District Three of Kanagawa which Okonogi himself has been representing in the Lower House of the Diet for two decades.
This disappointing result pushed him to announce fear his defeat that he would retire from politics altogether, leaving behind an open seat in Yokohama he’s held for two decades.
Okonogi Hachiro found his worst results, with less than 20% of the vote, in two areas:
In the South, the wards of Sakae (19.4%) and Totsuka (19.5%) neighboring the affluent (and beautiful) city of Kamakura.
To the north, in the young and progressive wards that connect with Tokyo through the Den-en-Toshi line, like Aoba Ward, where he only won 16%. Yikes.
As expected, he overperformed in the two wards he represents in the Diet (Tsurmi & Kanagawa Wards) even though it was way weaker than the LDP itself could have expected for a favorite son.
A sad last for an accomplished political like Okonogi Hachiro, who’s taking the fall of a seemingly impossible campaign where voters, in the last stretch of the race, seemed to think more about Suga than local issues from Yokohama. As expected, it didn’t work out for the LDP. Again. A very painful loss for PM Suga and his friend (he was a secretary of Okonogi’s father ) Okonogi Hachiro, as both represent neighboring districts in Yokohama.
What a cruel year. Deserved.
HAYASHI FUMIKO (Mayor)・196,926（13.1%）
After three terms as the first female Mayor of Yokohama, Japans’ second city, the idea of establishing an “Integrated Resort project” with a casino included as well as the high disapproval of PM Suga in the city, swept her away, landing barely third in a 6-way race.
In comparison to the previous races, her support cratered pretty much everywhere, with an especially meaningful decrease in the number of votes despite a higher turnout
2021: 196.926 votes
2017: 598.115 votes
2013: 694.360 votes
2009: 910.297 votes
Check out the map:
Mayor Hayashi held up better in the South of the city. And she did…uh…fine in the two wards closest to Minato Mirai and the area where the IR project would have been established in the harbor of the city:
Naka Ward: 17.2%
Nishi Ward: 15.2%
These two historically were some of the best for her. In the chart below you can check out the results from every election for Mayor since 2009, by ward.
Of the four elections above, probably the comparison more apt is the one between 2017 and 2021, as in both there were anti-IR & anti-Hayashi candidates. Previously, in 2009 she had been elected in a coalition that included support from the old Democratic Party, while in 2013, she only faced token opposition from the communist party.
It’s nevertheless an ignominious end of a political career for a prominent female politician in Japan like her: plagued by health problems in the last months, she’s been resoundingly defeated and her pet project, the IR, dies with her career.
TANAKA YASUO・194,713（12.9%）
One of the most surprising results of the night came from Tanaka Yasuo. A happy-warrior, former Governor of Nagano Prefecture and a current resident of Yokohama, he ran a kind of an insurgent, populist and left-wing campaign based on some elements of support from Reiwa Shinsengumi and it was a success! In the last days of the campaign, his growth was evident through the growing number of people attending his rallies and internet buzz (if that means anything). In the end, such a good campaign paid off and Tanaka Yasuo was just (3k) votes short of surpassing the incumbent Mayor Hayashi Fumiko. Wow.
According to the election, he had his best results in the north of the city, in the wards bordering Kawasaki city connected with Tokyo by train lines like the Den-en-Toshi and the Green Line, which connects with the former. He garnered close to 15% of the vote there. These were the best areas for Reiwa Shinsengumi in the 2019 election for the House of Councillors.
He won over 13% of the vote too in the Naka and Nishi wards in the harbor.
At the same time, his weakest results were concentrated in the areas of southern Yokohama. In the end, it was an astounding result that left him just a few votes behind the current Mayor. In order to gauge their compared support, I made a map of both Mayor Hayashi and Tanaka Yasuo.
In the results, there was a clear north/south divide in the support for Mayor Hayashi and Tanaka Yasuo:
The former Governor took third place in the north, while she did so in the south, with the Yokohama train line as a divider.
MATSUZAWA SHIGEFUMI・162,206（10.8%）
A former 2-term Governor of Kanagawa Prefecture (where Yokohama is located), Matsuzawa Shigefumi left his seat in the Upper House as part of Ishin no Kai last month in order to run for mayor of Yokohama. However, the plan didn't go as planned.
A comparison to the previous results shows a substantial decrease in the number of votes received as well in the share of the vote. The lack of an explicit endorsement from his old party, Ishin no Kai, probably hurt him, using instead his name recognition as a former governor to crack double digits.
2021: 162.206 (10.8%)
2019: 226.729 (15%)
2013: 315.888 (19.4%)
His support was divided between wards in the waterfront and those in the interior where he was strongest than his city-wide results.
The fight for the fourth place was a close one though:
Tanaka Yasuo was fourth in the south (he was third in the north).
Mayor Hayashi was fourth in the north (she was third in the south).
Matsuzawa Shigefumim managed to win the fourth spot in just two wards: the most progressive, opposition-leaning ones of the city: Aoba Ward in the Tokyo suburbs (north) and Sakae Ward just north of Kamakura City.
FUKUDA MINEYUKI・62,455（4.1%）
After Mayor Hayashi, Fukuda Mineyuki was the only other candidate who was in favor of carrying on with the IR project in Yokohama city.
A former member of the House, Fukuda found support above his citywide mark in what we could consider downtown Yokohama, the exact place where the IR project would be established: the area of Minato Mirai in Naka and Nishi Wards. However, his strongest support was in the north.
And there’s a very easy reason to explain it. Because he had a footprint there.
In the early 2000s he represented Aoba Ward itself in the Yokohama City council, and during three terms (2005-2009 & 2012-2017) he represented, through the proportional list, the Eight District of Kanagawa which covers some of these wards, as a membef of the LDP in the Lower House of the Diet.
That past presence on the ground undoubtedly was reflected in the election results. Because of that, it's possible that his strength in the north deprived Mayor Hayashi of votes there, as both were pro-IR candidates, sinking her to fourth place in the north (as seen previously).
There were two other candidates in the race, even though they barely factored in the final result. One of them was of more interest:
Ota Masataka was the oldest candidate and likely the most experienced one in local politics: in 2019 he was reelected in the ward of Isogo, in southern Yokohama for a 10th term (!!!) in the city council (40 years…).
He ran then as a CDPJ candidate easily becoming the second vote-getter in his district. In early this summer, he resigned his seat and left the party in order to run for Mayor. In the end, he won just 2.6% and 39.802 total votes, 15% of which came from Isogo Ward (6149 votes), his home turf. That ward gave him close to 9% of the vote, widely overperforming his citywide results, a situation shared in the neighbor wards his, where he overperformed a little.
Once he lost the race for mayor, he recently announced he'll try to get back the seat he resigned from the City Council, representing Isogo Ward in a special election on the 26th of September.
A final map out of curiosity. If we wanted to put the race in a left/Opposition - right/government balance, I think the Opposition had a pretty good result overall, taking 49% of the vote and dominating in the north and the south:
Yamanaka Takeharu: 506.392 (33.6%
Tanaka Yasuo: 194.713 (12.9%)
Ota Masataka: 39,802 (2.6%)
740.907 VOTES
Okonogi Hachiro: 325.947 (21.6%)
Hayashi Fumiko: 196.926 (13.1%)
Fukuda Mineyuki: 62.455 (4.1%)
585.328 VOTES
With these results, the project of an “Integrated Resort”, with a casino included, is basically dead for Yokohama. The two only candidates (out of eight) that were in favor of the project combined for 17% of the total vote (46% of which came from Mayor Hayashi Fumiko. The rest, from Fukuda Mineyuki).
The pro-IR vote was strongest in the wards most affected, and close to the hypothetical project, like Nishi (20%) and Naka Wards (21%), in the Yokohama Harbor. It looks like there was a higher share of supporters of the project in the wards affected; they probably saw economic benefits in their business and homes in comparison to other districts, where citizens didn’t see those benefits.
The verdict of the citizens of Yokohama was clear regarding the IR project and its casino; the benefits, scant, The possibility of corruption too high for comfort.
It ain’t happening… 🎰
Do they have a future anywhere else in Japan?
Tweet(s) of the Week💬
Some of the tweets I liked this week.
I miss this sound. It reminds me of Horikoshi Jinja, near Tennoji Park in Osaka.
Imagine reading ‘Don Quijote de la Mancha' in Japanese. That'd be a challenge lol 😆
Shinjuku in 1978! 🥳🏢🚉
The Niigata Japan needs
Whatever the reason, get your shot😉
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Now, I’ll shift all my focus to the coming general election. It’ll likely take place by mid-October.
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