全敗！Total Defeat for Suga & the LDP
The LDP's Loss in Three Special Elections plus the Vaccination Process in Japan
Welcome to the first regular entry of the Nihonpolitics Newsletter!
Thank you so much for subscribing to all the 100方々 of you. I am happy to have received such positive feedback in the first week of the rollout.
Starting today, I will send a weekly newsletter each Thursday at 8 am Tokyo JST (1 am CET & 7 pm USET) with a curated list of interesting news, mainly of political nature, that took place throughout the week in Japan, and much more. I think it might look something like this, depending on the week:
Latest electoral news of the week
The Essentials: News and weekly politics about Japan.🏆
Progress on the Vaccination Process of Japan💉
Tweet(s) of the Week💬
Book recommendation📚
Let’s get right into it. There’s a lot to cover this week😁:
Election News
In the end, it happened. Last Sunday, voters throughout Japan rejected candidates from the LDP in three special elections, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Suga and the governing party just a few months away from the general election for the Lower House of the Diet.
Let’s go!! ⬇️
Hokkaido District 2 ❄️
As it was largely expected, Matsuki Kenkou「松木謙公」 the candidate from the CDPJ easily won the election to the Second District of Hokkaido, after receiving the full backing of the Opposition.
He had previously lost in 2014 and 2017 fighting for the same seat.
In a special election that had an extremely low turnout (30.2%😟), Matsuki Kenkou managed to get out the vote of the Opposition, approaching the totals he himself had received on previous occasions. Take a look at his electoral history:
2014 Lower House Election: 56.375 votes
2017 Lower House Election: 74.425 votes
2021 Special Election: 59.664 votes
(80% of the vote he received in 2017 & 106% of 2014’s)
Given that the LDP had decided not to present an “official” candidate itself, several conservatives candidates ran with the goal of coalescing those conservative voters. One of them was Yamazaki Izumi「山崎泉」, the Ishin no Kai candidate. In the end, he fell short, winning only 16% of the vote and placing even third in the race, behind Tsuruha Yoshiko「鶴羽佳子」 a former Hokkaido TV announcer who won 20% of the vote.
With this win, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan holds 50% of the Single-member Districts (SMDs) existing in Hokkaido: 6 out of 12, the party’s best share anywhere in Japan. The other six seats, some of which are competitive and shall be within reach for the Opposition in the next election, are held by the LDP (5) and Komeito (1).
The CDPJ appears to be a party that fits well with progressive Hokkaido.
House of Councillors Nagano Prefecture🍜
After Hokkaido, the Opposition certainly expected a win also in Nagano thanks to the mix of Dynastic Politics and the tilt of the Prefecture towards them. And they did win big.
In an election with just 44% turnout, Hata Jiro basically reached 55% of the vote won by his deceased brother, Hata Yuuichiro (whom he will replace in the Upper House) in 2019 regularly scheduled Upper House Election. It was an easy victory by double digits (12%) in which the LDP candidate Komatsu Yutaka’s improvement, growing his share of the vote slightly in comparison to his own race back in 2019, was not enough.
Let’s see the data:
Hata Siblings results:
2019 HoC Election: Hata Yuuichiro 512.462 total votes
2021 Special Election: Hata Jiro 415.781
(almost 80% of the total of votes his brother won, an impressive number that shows the strength of dynastic politics and the Hata family in Nagano)
Komatsu Yutaka (LDP) results:
2019 HoC Election: 366.810 total votes
2021 Special Election: 325.826 votes.
(Komatsu took 88% of the votes he won in 2019. An astounding result that was not enough to win the race, even with decreased turnout).
Komatsu Yutaka also improved three points in comparison to 2019. On the map, he maintained the majority of the very small rural villages he had won in 2019 and conquered two more in the East, at the border of the Chichibu National Park.
Hata Jiro did essentially as well as his older brother Yuuichiro did in 2019, winning both around 55% of the vote. Take a look at the comparison below between each brother outlining who won in each municipality (there are plenty of 市町村1 in Nagano):
Hata Jiro improved (slightly) over his brother especially in two areas: In the northeast of Nagano, and in the center of the Prefecture if we draw a cross-valley straight line between the cities of Ida and Matsumoto.
House of Councillors Hiroshima Prefecture 🦪
Commentators and CDPJ supporters could have expected rather easy wins in Hokkaido and Nagano. However, Hiroshima was the place that would decide to what extent the election night would become good for them, and bad (very bad) for Prime Minister Suga and the LDP.
As polls had been showing, the race was as tight as expected, and in the end, Miyaguchi Haruko「宮口はるこ」 the Opposition candidate won by only 34k votes!
Throughout her celebratory speech, Miyaguchi Haruko could be seen extremely moved Sunday night when she was announced as the winner at her campaign headquarters. She really seemed in shock. In just a few weeks she had gone from a TV announcer and single mother of three (with everything it entails in Japan) to a new member of the House of Councillors of the Japanese Diet, a new female politician in the Upper House of Japan!
The map of the results I made is below:
Even though Miyaguchi did not reach 50% of the vote as some exit polls showed on the election night, she was competitive everywhere. It was an impressive victory by a very good candidate. She did especially well in eastern Hiroshima, from where she hails ( she was born in Fukuyama city), winning a majority of the vote in all those municipalities.
The LDP candidate Nishita Hidenori only won scattered municipalities and islands in the south of the prefecture, to the East of Hiroshima city (a beautiful area I have visited).
There are three reasons, I think, that explain Miyaguchi’s impressive victory in Hiroshima:
There was a sizable part of LDP supporters (close to 25%) that switched parties and voted for Miyaguchi.
A lot of LDP supporters chose to stay home instead of voting (the turnout was sat at 33.6%…)
The questions around Money & Politics 「政治とカネ」, also known as “corruption”, weighed heavily on the minds of the voters. On those where it was the primary concern, the vote towards Miyaguchi was overwhelming, as expected.
The questions of corruption around the previous LDP incumbent probably played a role in both situations: moving LDP voters towards Miyauchi and convincing others to stay home.
To understand what happened, let’s take a look at the share of votes each candidate brought to the polls, in comparison to the candidates of the 2019 election:
Opposition candidates:
2019 HoC Election Opposition + JCP candidate2: 400.678 votes
2021 HoC Special Election Miyaguchi Hiroko (Opposition):
(370.860 votes, she managed to obtain the 92% of the total vote the two Opposition candidates won in 2019. A huge capacity to turn out voters in a low-turnout environment.
LDP candidates:
2019 HoC Election LDP candidates3: 566.054 votes
2021 HoC Special Election Nishita Hidenori (LDP):
(336.924 votes. Nishita Hidenori only won a low 59% of the total vote of 2019 won by the LDP candidates in 2019, Kawai and Mizote. Too big of a decrease to win this race against a very motivated Opposition in Hiroshima.
I have read some of the best experts in the field of Japanese politics recently (whose Twitter threads I will link below) and the conclusion we can extract from these elections look similar. I agree:
The hiccup of these three special elections will not mortally damage Prime Minister Suga but instead, add to the continued (but moderate) erosion of Suga himself (more than the LDP as a party), an erosion of his standing with the general public and within the party.
PM Suga is now in a bind. His term as LDP President 「自由民主党総裁」ends the 30th of September, but the general election for the Lower House has to take place at the latest on the 22nd of October of 2021…
What to do with Suga in the interregnum?
Will he run for LDP President again to face the electorate in October?
Or Does the LDP want a new leader for the October Election if Suga is further weakened?
Essential thread, by Amy Catalinac
These election results might not have much of an impact on the future of Japanese politics. However, I think we should not underestimate the value of the Opposition victories, specially Miyaguchi’s in Hiroshima, a double-digit conservative prefecture.
Miyaguchi Hiroko has a difficult political future though. It is far away, but in 2025, the Opposition will have two seats to defend on the same ticket: herself and Morimoto Shinji「森本しんじ」. I am not sure there are enough non-LDP voters in Hiroshima to sustain both…
Oh, I almost forgot. Yea, the Election for Mayor of Nagoya also took place on Sunday…And guess what?
Mayor Takashi won again reelection for a fifth term! 😮
It was his toughest fight, yet, he prevailed.
The Essentials
Japan Fully Vaccinated by 2022?
Earlier last week, the LDP Policy Chief, Shimomura Hakubun (Tokyo 11th District)「下村博文」publicly hinted at the *possibility* of the Japanese vaccination process extending into 2022, in case that some local governments were not able to administer vaccines as quickly as desired. The remarks were met with widespread criticism online, even by the Opposition parties in the Diet. Prime Minister Suga had recently assured that Japan would be able to “hold enough vaccines for its total population by the end of September of this year”; that does not entail though that Japan has currently the ability to administer them all in 2021.
Rob Fahey (@robfahey) from the Tokyo Review, wrote on Twitter a clarifying thread (which I link below. I recommend it reading it in full!) explaining how the disjointed healthcare system in Japan works against a smooth and effective administration, in its full potential, of all the doses Japan has received and will receive (by million) in the next few months.
The vaccination process in Japan, which I have decided to devote a whole section each week in my Newsletter, has been marred by a slow start, a messy approach, and a lack of data transparency. There are concerns too that some doses are being wasted simply because there are no clear guidelines about what to do with them when seniors do not attend the few appointments that have been offered. As The Japan Times reports, it does not seem to be a widespread issue; nevertheless, it is not acceptable to waste doses of the anti-Covid vaccine in the current situation of emergency. Let’s hope it gets fixed as soon as possible. There is potentially good news on the way, though. Pfizer in the last few days agreed to provide Japan with an additional *50 million doses*, the Mainichi Shinbun has reported, for a total of 194 million doses just from them.
Japan & the Japanese Government4 has to realize, with urgency, that vaccines are *the only way* to fix the health and economic situation Japan finds itself in right now!
Three Months to the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election
There are just a few months left until the election for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly and the political parties are finalizing their slate of candidates. The 2017 election gave Tomin First, the political group behind Governor Yuriko Koike, a big majority with the support of Komeito, after the Buddhist party abandoned the electoral cooperation with the LDP that year.
This time around, the LDP & Komeito are together again as they try to take back control of the Assembly from a weakened Tomin First (the party really has a tough fight on its hands to maintain its plurality in the Assembly). Meanwhile, the CDPJ and the Japanese Communist Party are trying to advance a joint strategy to increase their seats5. The small DPFP, Reiwa Shinsengumi & Ishin no Kai will also present their own candidates.
Currently, this is the arrangement of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (22/04/2021)6:
Much more to come about the election in the next few months…
LDP punts again on the “elective surname policy”
With just a few months until the general election, the LDP has decided to abandon its internal debate about the “elective surname policy”, which had become a controversial issue within the conservatives. This policy, which would allow the Japanese (mainly women) to choose if they want to maintain their maiden names or not when married (instead of adopting the family name of the husband) is widely supported by the Japanese people. However, its approval is held up by a minority within a minority. Conservatives in the LDP are blocking any progress not only within the party but in the Diet. It is time for Japan to approve this policy, leaving behind its unique and discriminatory system.
Sugawara Ishuu in hot water again
Sugawara Ishuu「菅原一秀」an LDP six-term member from the Lower House of the Diet (Tokyo 9th District), is once again one shaky legal ground, as Tokyo Prosecutors have decided to reopen a corruption investigation they closed in 2020 for a possible violation of the Public Office Election Law. A former METI minister in 2019 under PM Abe (he only lasted a month), Sugawara Ishuu is under investigation for the distribution of gifts, of all kinds, to individual constituents in his district🍈🎁 since 2018 in several public events, a possible violation of the law.
Last year, prosecutors had decided not to indict him; however, it looks like they are taking another look at the case.
His district, located in Nerima-Ku 「練馬区」might be competitive in the coming general election in the fall (sorry for the bad quality of the chart…I have improved since I made it😅😅)
Vaccination Process in Japan
The week from the 20th of April to the 26th was an inflection point in the already two and a half months-long vaccination process in Japan.
Just in 7 days, almost 1 million shots were delivered! A new record. Even though it is true that we all would like the process to speed up much more, it is undeniable that the vaccination is accelerating!
Last week, 85% of the vaccines were first doses in contrast to the previous two weeks, when second doses for healthcare workers made up the bulk of the weekly vaccination. This ramped-up pace of first doses entails that in a few weeks a renewed focus on second shots will appear on the charts.
The weekly pace of vaccination this week shot up incredibly: almost one million shots, mainly first doses.
These 945.940 vaccines amount to almost a third (29%) of the total doses administered since the vaccination campaign started in mid-February (in just one week)!
Even more, the first doses of last week (798.258) are 35% of the total first doses delivered since the process started! Wow. It was the kind of speedy and bulk vaccination we like, desire and need.
We still have two weeks left in April and May, the doses delivered in Month 3 (1.3 million) already almost matches the total from the previous month (1.4 million). There are days to keep growing the tally of vaccines.
Will Japan get to 2 million doses in Month 3 ( from Half-April to half Half-May)?
As Japan keeps receiving more and more doses, I wonder when Japan will reach half a million daily injections. Yesterday Japan administered for the first time 200k doses in a single day! The country has been breaking the daily records for a full week.
Tweet(s) of the Week
The relationship of the Japanese Government with covid restrictions in a video…
Seriously, I can’t wait to visit Beautiful Tokyo again.
December of 2021, anyone?
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Hata Jiro also won in every SMD of Nagano in the Lower House, as calculated by the Shinano Mainichi Shinbun.
Morimoto Shinji, an independent with the backing of the Opposition won a seat (329,792/32.3%); the JCP candidate Takumi Atsumi placed fourth, way behind (70,886/6.9%）
Disgraced Kawai Anri won the second seat (295,871/29.0%), leaving the then-incumbent and fellow conservative Mizote Kensei without a seat (270,183/26.5%）
Prime Minister Sugaand the Japanese Government does not appear to take responsibility beyond the mere distribution of the supplies it receives. Appalling.
The election will be an opportunity to see the degree of support for the CDPJ, Japan’s first Opposition party, which currently has less than half of the seats of the Communists, a specially strong group in Tokyo.
The current composition of the assembly can differ from the results of the 2017 election because some members may have changed their party affiliation/caucus registration.