Tokyo goes back to the polls (Part One)
Preview of the Election in Tokyo's Special Wards
Tokyo 2025: A New Battle for the Capital’s Balance of Power
The 22nd of June of 2025, Tokyo returns to the ballot box for the Metropolitan Assembly elections, an event that, while technically local, promises to send strong signals through the Japanese political landscape. Coming less than a year after a bruising general election, this vote will test the strength of Japan’s ruling bloc, the resilience of the opposition forces, and the emerging ambitions of centrist challengers.
The backdrop is marked by volatility. Prime Minister Ishiba’s LDP suffered its second-worst performance ever in the 2024 general election, losing key urban districts across the capital. While Ishiba has clung to power with Komeito to form a minority government, this month's election for Tokyo’s Metropolitan Assembly becomes a new test for Ishiba and the LDP, especially the Tokyo LDP, which had a significant presence in the corruption scandals that have dragged the whole party down in recent years.
At the local level, Governor Yuriko Koike was re-elected in 2024, reaffirming her personal brand. The 2021 election, however, was tough for her local party, Tomin First, which lost its plurality in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. It remains to be seen whether, in 2025, Tomin can regain its position as the largest party in Tokyo. With the undeniable help of the LDP and Koike’s enduring popularity, it appears likely.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), the main opposition force nationally, is at a pivotal moment. It must increase its representation in Tokyo to position itself as a viable alternative to the LDP, especially with a national Upper House election just a month away. Strong results in the capital could give it much-needed momentum.
Ishin no Kai, on the other hand, faces a difficult election. The party has consistently struggled to establish a niche support base in Tokyo, both geographically and ideologically, particularly at the local level, where it's harder to break through. Their only seat, in Ota Ward, will be difficult to defend. Exactly when they had hoped to expand in 2025, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) appears to have stolen their momentum.
The DPFP is arguably the key party to watch in this election. Its popular policy positions, savvy opposition strategy and the perception of stagnation within the CDPJ have lifted its polling numbers. Now, the party is looking to capitalize by winning seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. They’re fielding several candidates and are expected to secure a notable number of seats, likely shifting the assembly’s balance of power by attracting a mix of moderate opposition voters and former LDP supporters.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), with a recognizable and sizable presence in Tokyo, aims to retain its current strength. While always a challenge, the JCP continues to rely on a loyal voter base, particularly in traditionally targeted districts across the prefecture.
Finally, a range of smaller parties, such as Reiwa Shinsengumi, Sanseito, the Tokyo Seikatsu Network, and Sansei no Michi (founded by Ishimaru Shinji following his strong showing in last year’s gubernatorial election), will also be on the ballot. While individually limited in scale, together they add further unpredictability to an already complex electoral landscape.
In this context, the 2025 Tokyo assembly election will not just be a battle for Tokyo, it will be a battle for narrative control in post-general election Japan. Moreover, though it could be treated as a local contest, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election carries outsized political weight. With 127 seats up for grabs, the race will determine which parties can dominate policy in Japan’s most populous and politically influential region. For the ruling LDP, a recovery in Tokyo would offer a symbolic rebound after last year’s national disappointment. For the opposition, especially the CDPJ and DPFP, it is a chance to prove viability ahead of the Upper House elections this July.
This election is being quietly watched in Nagatacho as a "semi-final”, a dress rehearsal for what may come in July, in a new national election for the House of Councillors, where the LDP and Komeito are in real danger of losing their majority there.
It’s going to be exciting!
Main Political Parties to Watch in this election:
LDP
Komeito
Tomin First
JCP
CDPJ
DPFP
Ishin no Kai
Reiwa Shisengumi
Sanseito
In this PART ONE, I will cover all 23 Tokyo Special Wards. In a second part coming up in the next days, I will cover the remaining municipalities of Tokyo.
Let’s go!
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District Profile – Chiyoda Ward（千代田区）
Seats available: 1
Previous winner (2021): Taira Keishou (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 52k
Turnout in 2021: 44.19%
Main contenders this year:
Taira Keisho - Tomin (INCUMBENT)
Hayashi Noriyuki - LDP
Yanagisawa Takayuki - Saisei no Michi
Kimura Masaaki - JCP
District Overview:
Taira Keishou represents Chiyoda, the ward often considered the very heart of Tokyo. It is home to some of the capital’s most iconic landmarks, including the Imperial Palace, the National Diet Building, Tokyo Station, the Akihabara electronics district and Hibiya Park.
Traditionally a stronghold for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Chiyoda has seen a political realignment since 2017. Tomin First, powered by Governor Yuriko Koike’s enduring popularity, has steadily expanded its presence, winning elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, the ward mayoralty, and the ward assembly here.
In 2021, Taira narrowly retained the seat with 35.7 percent of the vote, finishing just four points ahead in a competitive race.
This year, Taira is expected to win a third term. The LDP enters the race without a unified front, as its 2021 candidate, Uchida Naoyuki, is running as an independent. His candidacy could split the conservative vote, weakening support for the official LDP nominee, Hayashi, and likely helping Tomin First keep control of the seat.
District Profile – Chuo Ward（中央区）
Seats available: 1
Previous winner (2021): Ishijima Hideki (LDP)
Voters in 2021: 135k
Turnout in 2021: 39.19%
Main Contenders This Year:
Ishijima Hideki - LDP (INCUMBENT)
Takahashi Makiko - Tomin
Amano Kokoro - Saisei no Michi
Ai Michiko - SDPJ
District Overview:
Ishijima Hideki represents Chuo Ward, one of the most LDP-leaning districts in Tokyo (alongside neighboring Chiyoda, at least among the 23 special wards that make up the city's core). In the last House of Representatives general election, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) made significant gains in the area, cutting into the LDP's traditional base.
In this race, Tomin First’s Takahashi is the only serious challenger to Ishijima. As a sitting member of the Chuo Ward Assembly, she brings an established local profile and a built-in voter network. The broader political climate, with headwinds facing the LDP both nationally and in Tokyo, could complicate Ishijima’s path to re-election, even in this traditionally conservative district.
Back in 2021, Ishijima secured a solid victory, finishing more than 10 percentage points and over 5,000 votes ahead of his nearest rival.
District Profile – Minato Ward（港区）
Seats available: 2
Previous winner (2021): Kanno Kouichi (LDP), Irie Nobuko (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 199k
Turnout in 2021: 33.78%
Main Contenders This Year:
Kanno Kouichi - LDP (INCUMBENT)
Miyazaki Daisuke - DPFP
Yamanoi Tsuyoshi - CDPJ
District Overview:
Since I began following Japanese politics, I’ve always found Minato Ward’s consistently low voter turnout striking. Despite being one of Tokyo’s most prominent, wealthy, and international districts, home to landmarks like Roppongi Hills, Tokyo Tower, Azabu-Juban, and the headquarters of numerous global firms and foreign embassies, it routinely posts some of the lowest participation rates across all elections.
In 2021, the LDP’s Kanno Kōichi narrowly secured a third term, winning by less than 1,000 votes and just one percentage point over two major challengers from Tomin First and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
This year, he once again faces a challenger from the CDP, now joined by a new contender from the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP). While he will aim to repeat his razor-thin win, the political environment has shifted dramatically. A wave of LDP scandals at both the national and metropolitan levels could erode his support and make the race even tighter.
Minato elects two representatives to the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, so Kanno is still expected to be re-elected. The second seat is likely to go to either the DPFP or the CDP, with the DPFP currently appearing more competitive.
Despite Minato’s traditionally conservative leanings, the ward experienced a major political shift in June 2024, when opposition-backed candidate Seike Ai defeated the long-serving mayor in a stunning upset.
District Profile – Shinjuku Ward（新宿区）
Seats available: 4
Previous winner (2021): Oyama Tomohiko (JCP), Kojou Masao (Komeito), Moriguchi Tsukasa (Tomin), Yoshizumi Haruo (LDP)
Voters in 2021: 269k
Turnout in 2021: 41.89%
Main Contenders This Year:
Ōyama Tomoko – Japanese Communist Party (INCUMBENT)
Kojō Masao – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Yoshizumi Haruo – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Mikumo Takamasa – CDP
Miyamoto Sena – Tomin First
Taira Yūdai – Saisei no Michi
Hirota Toshiyasu – Saisei no Michi
Okumoto Yuri – DPFP
District Overview:
Shinjuku Ward is one of Tokyo’s most dynamic and multifaceted districts. Known for its contrast between government institutions and its nightlife, it houses key landmarks such as the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building, Shinjuku Gyoen National Garden, and the bustling Kabukichō entertainment district. It is also a major transport hub, with Shinjuku Station being one of the busiest in the world.
Politically, Shinjuku has a long history of competitive and diverse elections, reflecting its rich social and demographic complexity. Notably, it has the highest proportion of foreign residents among Tokyo’s 23 special wards, with non-Japanese nationals making up over 10 percent of the population.
With four seats available, this year’s race is shaping up to be one of the most interesting to watch, given the diversification of candidates and the evolving party dynamics.
Komeito’s Kojo Masao and the Japanese Communist Party’s (JCP) Oyama Tomoko appear to be strong favorites for re-election. Oyama is a fixture in Tokyo politics, having represented Shinjuku in the Metropolitan Assembly for more than 32 years. Indefatigable and deeply rooted in the community, she is now seeking a ninth term.
https://x.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1927956233450897557
Meanwhile, both the LDP and Tomin First candidates (not incumbents but their party had them in 2017) face a tight fight, with serious challenges from both the CDP, whose candidate in 2021 missed the fourth seat by less than 1%, and the rising DPFP, which has been steadily gaining ground at the national level.
I’m watching Shinjuku, as alwaysl
District Profile – Bunkyo Ward（文京区）
Seats available: 2
Previous winner (2021): Fukute Yuuko (JCP), Masuko Hiroki (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 180k
Turnout in 2021: 48.66%
Main Contenders This Year:
Fukute Yuuko– JCP (INCUMBENT)
Masuko Hiroki– Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Nakaya Fumitaka - LDP
District Overview:
I have to say that Bunkyo is my favorite district in Tokyo. I really love hills, its literary history and its prominent position overlooking the lower areas of the city. There’s just something special about its.
Politically, Bunkyo is quite diverse, with a notable and consistent Japanese Communist Party (JCP) presence. In fact, Fukata Yūko was only one of two Communist candidates to place first in any Tokyo district or municipality during the 2021 election, and this year, she could be safe for re-election. We find a similar or even higher strength for Masuko, a Tomin First heavyweight member with four terms behind him. But with three candidates and only two seats, one of them will need to lose…
The LDP’s candidate, Nakaya, who lost the seat in 2021 and is now trying to win it back.
Bunkyo is also known for relatively high voter turnout, especially compared to other central Tokyo wards, which adds another interesting layer to the district.
District Profile – Taito Ward（台東区）
Seats available: 2
Previous winner (2021): Suzuki Jun (LDP), Hosaka Masahiro (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 166k
Turnout in 2021: 42.91%
Main Contenders This Year:
Hosaka Masahiro – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Suzuki Jun – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Nakayama Hiroyuki – CDPJ
Iwasaki Akira – Saisei no Michi
District Overview:
To the northeast of Chiyoda and central Tokyo, Taito Ward is one of the city’s most historically rich and culturally significant districts. It is home to iconic landmarks such as Sensoji Temple in Asakusa, the bustling Nakamise-dori shopping street, and Ueno Park, which includes several major museums and a zoo.
Politically, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has traditionally held a strong presence in Taito. However, since its emergence, Tomin First has made significant inroads, at one point, controlling both available seats in the ward until 2017.
This year’s race is shaping up to be a competitive three-way contest, with the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) candidate aiming to unseat either the LDP or Tomin First incumbent. Notably, Tomin First is fielding only one candidate, its sitting member, which may give the party an edge in vote consolidation. In contrast, the LDP’s Suzuki Jun, also an incumbent, appears more vulnerable to the challenge.
District Profile – Sumida Ward（台東区）
Seats available: 3
Previous winner (2021): Narikiyo Risako (Tomin), Kawamatsu Shinichiro (LDP), Lato Masayuki
Voters in 2021: 227k
Turnout in 2021: 44.04%
Main Contenders This Year:
Narikiyo Risako – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Kato Masayuki – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Fujisaki Koki – LDP
Tsubota Kōsuke – Saisei no Michi
Itō Daiki – JPC
District Overview:
Sumida Ward is one of Tokyo’s eastern districts, located across the Sumida River. It is best known as the home of Tokyo Skytree, Japan’s tallest structure and a major symbol of the city’s modern skyline. The ward also includes historic neighborhoods such as Ryogoku, the spiritual home of sumo wrestling, and Kinshicho, a lively and dense commercial center.
This year’s race closely mirrors that of 2021, with one key difference: the addition of a candidate from Saisei no Michi. In the previous election, the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) candidate, Ito Daiki, placed fourth, falling just more than 3k votes behind the Komeito incumbent. He’s running again.
This time, unless there is a major shift in voter behavior, it is likely that the Tomin First, Komeito and LDP candidates will each secure re-election for another term, been though the LDP has a new candidate in 2025.
District Profile – Koto Ward（江東区）
Seats available: 4
Previous winner (2021): Hosoda Isamu (Komeito), Yamazaki Ikki (LDP), Azegami Miwako (JCP), Shirato Tarou (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 416k
Turnout in 2021: 43.89%
Main Contenders This Year:
Shirato Taro – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Hosoda Isamu – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Sannohe Aya – Independent (INCUMBENT)
Yamazaki Ikki – Independent, former LDP (INCUMBENT)
Takahashi Takumi – DPFP
Chiba Sakie – CDPJ
Otsuki Kaori – JCP
District overview:
Koto Ward is a waterfront district in eastern Tokyo, known for its rapid urban development, its mix of residential and industrial areas, and a growing number of high-rise condominiums. It includes neighborhoods such as Toyosu, Ariake, and Kiba, and was home to several venues during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
Politically, Koto Ward is one of the more chaotic and unpredictable districts in Tokyo. It has seen a fair share of scandals and internal strife, particularly involving the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Notably, not all incumbents elected in 2021 are seeking re-election this time.
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) incumbent is retiring, while Yamazaki Ikki, the LDP incumbent elected in 2021, is running again, this time as an independent. He resigned from the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly in 2023 to run for mayor of Koto, a race he ultimately lost. Following his involvement in the LDP's fundraising scandal, the party has declined to endorse him for 2025, prompting his independent bid to regain his lost seat.
It is worth keeping an eye on Takahashi Takumi of the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), who appears to be receiving quiet backing from LDP-aligned networks on the ground.
Yamazaki’s assembly seat was temporarily filled by Sannohe Aya, an independent whose strength heading into this race remains unclear. She is something of a wild card (she defeated Yamazaki in the special election to fill his vacated seat).
With four seats in play and several high-profile candidates competing, the 2025 race in Koto is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable contests in Tokyo, apt for such a politically volatile district. A mess.
District Profile – Shinagawa Ward（江東区）
Seats available: 4
Previous winner (2021): Itou Koichi (Komeito), Morisawa Kyouko (Independent), Shiraisi Tamio (JCP), Abe Yumiko (CDPJ)
Voters in 2021: 333k
Turnout in 2021: 43.19%
Main Contenders This Year:
Shinohara Rika – Independent (INCUMBENT)
Shiraishi Tamio – JPC (INCUMBENT)
Ito Koichi – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Serizawa Yujiro – LDP
Okamoto Yuji – Saisei no Michi
Higashi Yuki – CDPJ
Okamoto Satoshi – Tomin First
Ishida Shingo – DPFP
District overview:
Shinagawa Ward is a key gateway to southern Tokyo, known for its mix of residential neighborhoods, corporate districts and major transportation links. It is home to Shinagawa Station, one of Tokyo’s most important rail hubs and a key stop on the Tokaido Shinkansen line. The ward blends traditional shitamachi working-class neighborhoods with rapidly developing high-rise areas near the waterfront, making it one of the capital’s most economically and demographically diverse districts.
Politically, in 2021, opposition forces achieved something rare: both the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) secured seats, capturing half of the available mandates.
This year, the CDP is fielding a new candidate, while the JCP is aiming to retain its incumbent. However, the race is expected to be highly competitive, with additional pressure coming from the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and independent incumbent Shinohara Rika, who won her seat in a 2024 special election.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which failed to win a seat in Shinagawa in 2021, is looking to regain ground through its candidate Serizawa Yuujiro.
District Profile – Meguro Ward（目黒区）
Seats available: 3
Previous winner (2021): Itou Yuu (Tomin), Saito Yasuhiro (Komeito), Nishizaki Tsubasa (CDPJ)
Voters in 2021: 232k
Turnout in 2021: 43.03%
Main Contenders This Year:
Aoki Eita – Independent (INCUMBENT)
Nishizaki Tsubasa – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Yamaguchi Seiya – Tomin First
Tazoe Mayu – Independent
Matsuo Yūki – Saisei no Michi
District overview:
Meguro Ward is a quiet yet upscale residential area in southwestern Tokyo, known for its leafy streets, stylish cafes, and overall cultural sophistication. Landmarks such as the Meguro River, famous for its cherry blossoms, and the Tokyo Metropolitan Teien Art Museum contribute to the ward’s refined and relaxed atmosphere. Meguro is also home to several embassies and universities, adding to its international and intellectual character. This blend reflects the ward’s generally progressive leanings, which become more pronounced as one moves westward through Tokyo.
Of the three candidates who won in 2021, only one, CDP’s Nishizaki Tsubasa, is running for re-election, giving him a potential upper hand in securing a seat. One of the vacated seats is now held by independent (but LDP-backed) Aoki Eita, who won a special election in 2024. The backstory adds intrigue: CDPJ’s Nishizaki himself resigned his seat to run for Mayor of Meguro, but lost to Aoki’s father, who has held the mayoralty since 2014, and in the special election to fill his seat, Nishizaki himself won it back along with Aoki’s son.
With three seats up for grabs, Tomin’s Yamaguchi Seiya has a pick-up opportunity here.
District Profile – Ota Ward（大田区）
Seats available: 7
Previous winner (2021): Fujita Ryouko (JCP), Matsuda Ryusuke (Ishin), Saito Rie (CDPJ), Suzuki Akimasa (LDP), Katsumata Satoshi (Komeito), Mori Ai (Tomin), Tamagawa Hidetoshi (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 607k
Turnout in 2021: 43.6%
Main Contenders This Year:
Suzuki Akihiro – Independent (INCUMBENT)
Mori Ai – Independent (INCUMBENT)
Tamagawa Hidetoshi – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Katsumata Satoshi – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Matsuda Ryusuke – Ishin (INCUMBENT)
Fujita Ryoko – JCP (INCUMBENT)
Kato Tetsuo – Saisei no Michi
Fukui Yuta – DPFP
Yumoto Ryotaro – LDP
Ogino Minoru – Tomin First
Okeya Masato – CDPJ
District overview:
As we move south, we enter Ota Ward, one of Tokyo’s most populous and expansive districts. Located in the southern part of the capital, Ota is known for its residential neighborhoods, industrial zones and its proximity to Haneda Airport, one of Japan’s major international gateways. The ward includes areas like Kamata, Omori, and Den-en-chofu, offering a striking mix of working-class neighborhoods and affluent suburbs.
Ota’s size and demographic diversity make it a complex electoral battleground. While it often produces results that reflect conservative strength, there are also pockets of support for the Communist Party and even Ishin no Kai. In recent years, this has allowed Ishin no Kai to gain a foothold in Tokyo politics through Ota.
As you can see, handicapping this race is messy, with so many candidates and up to seven seats up for grabs. Here are two noteworthy tidbits:
First, Suzuki Akihiro of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who lost his seat in 2021 but won it back in a 2023 special election, is now running as an independent. As a result, the LDP is officially fielding only one candidate in Ota.
Second, Ota Ward was the only district where Ishin no Kai won a seat in the 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. Matsuda Ryusuke and his party are now working to hold onto that seat.
District Profile – Setagaya Ward（世田谷区）
Seats available: 8
Previous winner (2021): Fukushima Rieko (Tomin), Satoyoshi Yumi (JCP), Takaku Norio (Komeito), Komatsu Daisuke (LDP), Miyake Shigeki (LDP), Yamaguchi Taku (CDPJ), Kazama Yutaka (CDPJ), Tsuchiya Miwa (LDP)
Voters in 2021: 761k
Turnout in 2021: 43.93%
Main Contenders This Year:
Komatsu Daisuke – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Satoyoshi Yumi – JCP (INCUMBENT)
Miyake Shigeki – Independent (INCUMBENT)
Fukushima Rieko – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Takaku Norio – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Kazama Yutaka – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Kure Yoshitsugu – Saisei no Michi
Sakamoto Masashi – DPFP
Toriumi Aya – Saisei no Michi
Mochizuki Masanori – Sanseito
Jinmura Kōhei – Reiwa Shinsengumi
Nakashima Rina – DPFP
Takano Takahiro – Tomin First
Takaoka Junko – Tokyo Seikatsu-sha Network
District overview:
To the west of Ota lies Setagaya Ward, Tokyo’s most populous district and a major center of progressive politics within the capital’s suburban landscape. Setagaya is known for its residential charm, leafy neighborhoods, and family-friendly atmosphere. Areas like Sangenjaya, Shimokitazawa and Futakotamagawa combine cultural vitality with middle-class stability.
Politically, Setagaya has long leaned progressive, with strong support for parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), and civic-oriented groups such as the Tokyo Seikatsusha Network. That said, the ward’s size and diversity also make it fertile ground for independents, newcomers, and emerging parties like Reiwa Shinsengumi, Ishin or the DPFP, particularly when they succeed in mobilizing younger voters or disillusioned moderates. In the last election (in 2021), the left-wing opposition forces won 3 out of 8 seats in Setagaya, compared to 3 for the LDP, 1 for Komeito, and 1 for Tomin First. This year, even fiercer competition is expected, with the Tokyo Seikatsusha Network, Reiwa Shinsengumi, and even the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) all vying for seats.
With several seats in play, high turnout, and a crowded field of candidates, Setagaya’s 2025 race is likely to be one of the most competitive and ideologically diverse contests in Tokyo.
I’m watching this one.
District Profile – Shibuya Ward（渋谷）
Seats available: 2
Previous winner (2021): Nakada Takashi (CDPJ), Ryuen Airi (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 190k
Turnout in 2021: 38.33%
Main Contenders This Year:
Ryuuen Airi – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Nakada Takashi – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Nakamura Takeshi – LDP
Hagiwara Takashi – Saisei no Michi
District overview:
Shibuya Ward is one of Tokyo’s most iconic and globally recognizable districts, often associated with youth culture, fashion, and innovation. Landmarks such as Shibuya Crossing, Harajuku, and Yoyogi Park make it a symbol of modern Tokyo, while neighborhoods like Daikanyama and Ebisu reflect its upscale, cosmopolitan character.
With only a limited number of seats available, elections in Shibuya tend to be highly competitive, with small margins often deciding the outcome. In 2025, both incumbents, from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) and Tomin First, are seen as favored for re-election over the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Tomin First, which held both seats in Shibuya before 2021, is only fielding one candidate this year, improving its chances of holding at least one seat.
District Profile – Nakano Ward（中野区）
Seats available: 3
Previous winner (2021): Nishizawa Keita (CDPJ), Araki Chiharu (Tomin), Takakura Ryousei (Komeito)
Voters in 2021: 279k
Turnout in 2021: 43.56%
Main Contenders This Year:
Araki Chiharu – Tomin First no Kai (INCUMBENT)
Nishizawa Keita – Constitutional Democratic Party (INCUMBENT)
Kubo Rika – Komeito
Idei Ryōsuke – Liberal Democratic Party
Okumoto Kazuki – Saisei no Michi
District overview:
As we move westward in this electoral recap, we enter what can be described as the progressive heartland of Tokyo, areas where center-left and left-leaning parties consistently perform well and often outpoll the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In wards such as Nakano, and Setagaya, long associated with urban liberalism, high civic engagement, and generational diversity, the electoral balance shifts notably away from traditional conservative dominance.
Culturally, Nakano is best known as a hub for Japanese subculture. The iconic Nakano Broadway, opened in 1966, is a multi-story shopping complex famous for its hundreds of stores specializing in anime, manga, figurines, collectibles, and vintage goods. It’s often referred to as a paradise for otaku and a landmark of Tokyo’s pop culture scene. This year, as in 2021, Tokyo’s four main political parties are vying for only three seats, meaning one will be left out.
With the retirement of Komeito’s Takakura Ryousei after five terms, only two incumbents remain in Nakano: the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ)’s Nishizawa and Tomin First’s Araki. Nishizawa, the only center-left candidate in the race, is expected to be easily re-elected, while Araki continues to serve as a loyal ally of Governor Koike. That leaves the main contest once again between Komeito and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for the final seat.
District Profile – Suginami Ward（杉並区）
Seats available: 6
Previous winner (2021): Akanegakubo Kayoko (Tomin), Harada Akira (JCP), Komiya Anri (LDP), Sekiguchi Kentaro (CDPJ), Mtsuba Tamiko (Komeito), Hayasaka Yoshihiro
Voters in 2021: 480k
Turnout in 2021: 44%
Main Contenders This Year:
Matsuba Tamiko – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Akanegakubo Kayoko – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Sekiguchi Kentaro – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Harada Akira – JCP (INCUMBENT)
Komiya Anri – Independent (INCUMBENT)
Hayasaka Yoshihiro - LDP (IMCUMBENT)
Masuda Yoshihiko – Saisei no Michi
Kunisaki Takashi – Democratic Party for the People (DPFP)
Kosumi Kenshirō – Saisei no Michi
Aoyagi Mitsuya – Saisei no Michi
Kaiho Tokuma – Reiwa Shinsengumi
Matsumoto Mitsuhiro – Japan Innovation Party
Komatsu Hisako – Tokyo Seikatsusha Network
District overview:
Located in western Tokyo, Suginami Ward is a vibrant and culturally rich district that blends traditional charm with modern creativity. With a population of nearly 588,000 residents, it encompasses distinct neighborhoods such as Koenji, Asagaya, Ogikubo, and Nishi-Ogikubo, each offering a unique mix of residential calm and cultural energy.
Suginami is especially renowned as a hub of Japan’s animation industry, home to over 70 studios, including major names like Sunrise and Bones. The Suginami Animation Museum celebrates this legacy, showcasing the ward’s contribution to anime history. The district also bursts to life every summer with the Koenji Awa Odori Festival, one of Tokyo’s most dynamic traditional dance events, drawing tens of thousands of spectators and performers into the streets.
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Neighboring Nakano, Suginami is a politically similar area. Located along the central stretch of the Chūō Line, which connects Tokyo’s western suburbs to the city center and Shinjuku in the east, Suginami has long been a stronghold for leftist opposition. From far-left labor movements to the current mayor, left-leaning forces are well established. As a result, parties ranging from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) to the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), as well as local groups like the Tokyo Seikatsusha Network, have strong prospects in this district.
This year, all six incumbents who won in 2021 are running for re-election. However, Komiya Anri, who previously ran under the banner of the LDP, is now running as an independent. We'll see if she can pull through without the open backing of the party, though, after four terms representing the ward in the Assembly, she likely has a strong base.
This year, we'll also have to keep an eye on the DPFP and Reiwa for possible upsets for new seats.
District Profile – Toshima Ward（豊島区）
Seats available: 3
Previous winner (2021): Motohashi Hirotaka (Tomin), Yonekura Haruna (JCP), Nagahashi Keiichi (Komeito)
Voters in 2021: 228k
Turnout in 2021: 43%
Main Contenders This Year:
Motohashi Hirotaka – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Yonekura Haruna – JCP (INCUMBENT)
Tani Kimiyo – Komeito
Nakamura Yukinobu – Saisei no Michi
Ikeda Yūichi – LDP
District overview:
Toshima Ward, located in northwestern Tokyo, is one of the city’s most densely populated urban areas. Though compact in size, it packs cultural, commercial, and residential significance into every corner. At its heart lies Ikebukuro, a major transport and commercial hub filled with department stores, entertainment centers, and landmarks like Sunshine City and Sky Circus. Toshima balances the energy of a city core with quiet residential pockets, particularly around Mejiro and Sugamo, the latter often nicknamed the “Harajuku for grandmas” due to its popularity with older generations.
Toshima is the former area that Governor Yuriko Koike used to represent in the Lower House. Since 2017, two of the three incumbents, from Tomin First and the Japanese Communist Party, have represented this district, leaving the LDP without a seat. It’s likely that the same result will be repeated in this district, although the Komeito candidate is a new one in 2025. That might be a problem.
District Profile – Kita Ward（北区）
Seats available: 3
Previous winner (2021): Yamada Kanako (LDP), Sone Hajime (JCP), Omatsu Akira (Komeito)
Voters in 2021: 285k
Turnout in 2021: 47%
Main Contenders This Year:
Omatsu Akira – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Komazaki Miki – Tomin First no Kai (INCUMBENT)
Toeda Taiko – LDP
Seino Keiko – JCP
Kito Naoki – Ishin no Kai
District overview:
Located in northern Tokyo, Kita Ward is known for neighborhoods like Ōji, Akabane, and Tabata. Ōji is home to Ōji Shrine and Asukayama Park, one of Tokyo’s oldest parks, famous for cherry blossoms and different cultural spots.
Bordering the Arakawa River, Kita and other wards in the northern part of Tokyo tend to lean more conservative. In the 2021 election, the LDP, Komeito, and the JCP, representing the left, each won seats. However, in a 2024 special election, Tomin First secured a seat by defeating the LDP, giving them an incumbent advantage heading into this year.
As a result, both the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) are expected to adopt a more aggressive strategy in this election. The JCP, in particular, is fielding a new candidate to replace Sone Hajime, who is retiring after seven terms in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. Without Sone's name recognition and established support network, it may prove difficult for the JCP to retain the seat tho. While the LDP, despite their new candidate, should pick up a seat.
It’s definitely a district to watch.
District Profile – Arakawa Ward（荒川区）
Seats available: 2
Previous winner (2021): Keino Shinichi (Komeito), Takiguchi Gaku (Tomin)
Voters in 2021: 168k
Turnout in 2021: 43%
Main Contenders This Year:
Keino Shinichi – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Saito Kazuki – Tomin First
Machida Takashi – LDP
Kobayashi Hiroshi – JCP
Minami Takahiro – Saisei no Michi
District overview:
Located in northeastern Tokyo, Arakawa Ward is one of the capital’s smallest wards by area but it preserves much of the traditional shitamachi (old downtown) atmosphere, with close-knit communities and a slower pace of life compared to Tokyo’s bustling core. Neighborhoods like Nippori and the nostalgic Toden Arakawa Line, Tokyo’s remaining streetcar, which winds through the ward’s charming backstreets.
In the 2025 election, only Komeito’s Saito, who is seeking a third term, will be running as an incumbent. The main contest for the second seat is expected to be between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Tomin First candidate and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP). With only two seats available and four candidates in the race, the competition is expected to be close. Given the current political environment, a repeat of Komeito and Tomin First capturing the available seats appears likely.
District Profile – Itabashi Ward（板橋区）
Seats available: 5
Previous winner (2021): Kamata Etsuko (Komeito), Miyase Eiji (CDPJ), Kinoshita Fumiko (Tomin), Matsuda Yasumasa (LDP), Tokutome Michinobu (JCP)
Voters in 2021: 466k
Turnout in 2021: 41.68%
Main Contenders This Year:
Kamata Etsuko – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Matsuda Yasumasa – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Miyase Eiji – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Kono Yuki – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Takazawa Kazumoto – DPFP
Takeuchi Ai – JCP
Nakayama Shizu – Tomin First
Funamoto Yuzuki – Saisei
Tsuda Fumiya – Ishin
District overview:
Itabashi, Tokyo’s northernmost special ward, is a heavyweight district with five seats up for election. Four of those seats are currently held by incumbents: two from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), one from Komeito and one from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ). Tomin First won a seat in 2021 but currently holds none in the ward. The party is now fielding a new candidate in an effort to regain representation.
For the opposition, it's difficult to imagine a repeat of 2021, when both the CDP and the JCP secured a seat (especially for the JCP, after the retirement of their three-term incumbent Tokutome Michinobu)
District Profile – Nerima Ward（練馬区）
Seats available: 7
Previous winner (2021): Kobayashi Kenji (Komeito), Fujii Tomonori (CDPJ), Toya Etsuko (JCP), Ojima Kouhei (Tomin), Muramatsu Kazuki (Tomin), Shibazaki Mikio (LDP), Yamaka Akemi (LDP)
Voters in 2021: 610k
Turnout in 2021: 43.68%
Main Contenders This Year:
Ojima Kohei – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Shibazaki Mikio – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Fujii Tomonori – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Kobayashi Kenji – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Yamaka Akemi – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Toya Etsuko – JCP (INCUMBENT)
Muramatsu Kazuki – Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Ezaki Sanae – Sanseito
Yamaguchi Hana – DPFP
Wakatabi Keita – Ishin
Uema Atsuko – Saisei no Michi
Taguchi Yuri – Reiwa Shinsengumi
District overview:
Nerima Ward, located in northwestern Tokyo, is a largely residential area known for its spacious neighborhoods, family-friendly atmosphere and strong ties to the animation industry. Often considered one of the birthplaces of Japanese anime, it is home to major studios such as Toei Animation and blends suburban calm with cultural significance. Nerima also features expansive green spaces like Hikarigaoka Park and Shakujii Park, and serves as a key transit hub with multiple train lines connecting to central Tokyo.
As one of Tokyo’s largest and most populous wards, Nerima consistently presents a wide-open electoral contest. In the 2021 election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Tomin First, then Tokyo’s two largest parties, each secured two seats. Komeito won one, while on the left, the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) claimed one seat each.
This year, competition is expected to intensify, with Reiwa Shinsengumi, and especially the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), mounting strong campaigns to win a seat. Their gains could come at the expense of either the LDP’s second seat or the JCP’s hold in the ward.
I’m watching this one.
District Profile – Adachi Ward（足立区）
Seats available: 7
Previous winner (2021): Godo Nami (Tomin), Hocchi Yasutaka (LDP), Usui Kouichi (Komeito), Takashima Naoki (LDP), Saito Mariko (JCP), Nakayama Nobuyuki (Komeito)
Voters in 2021: 562k
Turnout in 2021: 41%
Main Contenders This Year:
Saito Mariko - JCP (INCUMBENT)
Hotchi Yasutaka - LDP (INCUMBENT)
Usui Koichi - Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Goto Nami - Tomin First (INCUMBENT)
Ginkawa Yuiko - CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Enomoto Fumiko - LDP
Otake Sayoko - Komeito
Kataoka Hiroshi - Saisei no Michi
Era Yasuhiro - Saisei no Michi
District overview:
We now turn to Tokyo’s final three special-focus wards, beginning with Adachi, often considered the metropolis’s most humble district. Located in the northeastern corner of the city, beyond the Sumida River, Adachi is known for its working-class roots, affordability, and a quiet blend of aging public housing, sprawling residential zones, and green spaces such as the Arakawa River cycling path. While it lacks iconic landmarks, Adachi carries a distinct identity that balances Tokyo’s urban intensity with a more local and grounded atmosphere. Neighborhoods like Kitasenju have undergone significant development in recent years, attracting younger families and commuters.
Politically, Adachi has long been a conservative stronghold. In the 2021 election, both the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito secured two seats each, leaving one seat each for Tomin First and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP). The ward has consistently delivered strong results for the ruling parties, particularly Komeito, which maintains deep support from its base in the area.
This year, both the LDP and Komeito are fielding only one incumbent each (plus a new candidate each), introducing a degree of uncertainty into the race. Further complicating the contest is the candidacy of Ginkawa Yuiko, who won a special election seat in 2024 in a direct contest against the LDP, prevailing by fewer than 1,000 votes. She now faces the challenge of defending that seat in a much more crowded and competitive field.
District Profile – Katsuhika Ward（葛飾区）
Seats available: 4
Previous winner (2021): Kitaguchi Tsuyoshi (Komeito), Izumi Naomi (JCP), Yonekawa Daijiro (Tomin), Hirata Mitsuyoshi (LDP),
Voters in 2021: 376k
Turnout in 2021: 40%
Main Contenders This Year:
Kitaguchi Tsuyoshi – Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Izumi Naomi – JCP (INCUMBENT)
Yonekawa Daijiro – CDPJ (INCUMBENT)
Hirata Mitsuyoshi – LDP (INCUMBENT)
Ogawa Yuta – Tomin First
Tokizaki Naoyuki – DDPFP
Iwami Natsuyo – Saisei no Michi
District overview:
Katsushika Ward, located in northeastern Tokyo, blends the atmosphere of old downtown Tokyo (shitamachi) with pockets of quiet residential life. Known for its traditional charm, Katsushika is home to the Shibamata district, immortalized by the Tora-san film series, and boasts landmarks like the Taishakuten temple and Yamamoto-tei, as well as large riverside parks along the Edogawa.
Politically, Katsushika has long leaned conservative, with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito maintaining strong bases here. However, opposition parties such as the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) have traditionally secured representation.
The 2025 election is shaping up to be particularly competitive. The JCP is fielding Izumi, who won a seat in 2021, while the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) now has an incumbent of its own, Yonekawa, who previously represented Tomin First before switching affiliations. The LDP and Komeito each hold one seat, both of which they will need to defend. Tomin First is fielding a new candidate in an attempt to maintain its presence, while the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) is also entering the race with hopes of gaining a seat. All indications point to a close and highly contested election!
I’m watching this one.
District Profile – Edogawa Ward（江戸川区）
Seats available: 5
Previous winner (2021): Takehira Chiharu (Komeito), Tanoue Ikuko (Tomin), Ueda Reiko (Independent), Udagawa Satoshi (LDP), Hara Junko (JCP)
Voters in 2021: 552k
Turnout in 2021: 39.6%
Main Contenders This Year:
Ueda Reiko - Independent (INCUMBENT)
Takehara Chiharu - Komeito (INCUMBENT)
Tanoue Ikuko - Independent (INCUMBENT)
Udagawa Satoshi - LDP (INCUMBENT)
Hara Junko - JCP (INCUMBENT)
Fukuoka Natsumi - Saisei no Michi
Murakami Sayaka - Ishin no Kai
Amanuma Hiroshi - DPFP
Yamada Asami - Tomin
District overview:
Located in eastern Tokyo along the banks of the Edogawa River, Edogawa Ward is a largely residential and family-friendly district known for its spacious parks, riverside greenery, and relatively affordable housing. Bordering Chiba Prefecture, it offers a more suburban atmosphere compared to central Tokyo, attracting families and older residents. Notable landmarks include Kasai Rinkai Park, the Edogawa Natural Zoo, and Tokyo Sea Life Park.
Politically, Edogawa has long leaned conservative, making it a stronghold for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito both of which have traditionally performed well in local elections. In the 2021 race, two winning candidates, Udagawa from the LDP and Tanoue Ikuko from Tomin First, are now running as independents, having left their respective parties. They join a third incumbent, Ueda Reiko, who is also seeking a fourth term as an independent.
This sets the stage for a competitive race in 2025, with the three independents facing off against candidates from Komeito and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), as well as new challengers from the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Ishin no Kai.
Thank you for reading Part One of my preview of the 2025 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. In the coming days, I will publish Part Two, covering the remaining municipalities of Tokyo.
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Sources:
2021 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election Results: https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/togisen/2021/
Election Preview: https://tokyo.go2senkyo.com/2025
Very interesting! I noticed that JCP has many seats, wow. I don't usually see Tokyo mentioned when talking about left institutional politics and i think could be a interesting case to follow. Thank you for you dedication! Btw, you left the Minato Ward 2021 winner blank!
This is an excellent report, Javier! Rich in detail and history. Thank you for going to the trouble for your audience (like me!). It is an exciting time... I am hearing the sound trucks already!