They Are Off! Race for the Presidency of the LDP Starts (2021)
Japan Awaits its New Prime Minister Just Before the Election
Hello and welcome to the NihonPolitics Newsletter.
I come today with a post about the race for the presidency of Japan’s LDP.
Let’s go!!
On Friday, the race to succeed Suga Yoshihide as the President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan started. Given the majority the party commands in the Diet, he’ll also become the new Prime Minister of the country until the general election for the House of Representatives takes place sometime in either October or November.
After Suga announced in early September that he would step down, I don't think any of us thought the race would develop in the way it’s doing, with competitiveness I certainly didn’t see coming. On Friday, four members of the party became the official candidates and they will campaign for the top post of the LDP 「自民党総裁」until the 29th of this month when the ballots will be open.
In the previous post of my newsletter, I presented three of the candidates. You can check it out HERE.
The Race for LDP President: the Candidates
Four are the candidates that will battle to become the new President of the LDP. Each with its own background and policy position, all of them belong to the same party and will try to lead it into a complicated general election just weeks away.
These are the 4 candidates that seek to succeed Suga Yoshihide, which grosso modo, Kazuto Suzuki describes according to their views on “Values & Wealth Distribution”
Kono: Liberal on Values — Conservative on Wealth Distribution
Kishida: Conservative on Values — Liberal on Wealth Distribution
Takaichi: Conservative on Values — Conservative on Wealth Distribution
Noda: Liberal on Values — Liberal on Wealth Distribution
Kono Taro and the young reformism
A former Minister of Foreign Affairs (2017-19) and Defense (2019-20), Kono Taro has been in the news a lot lately, thanks to his role as the minister in charge of the vaccination program. In addition, he represents since 1996 Kanagawa 15 District, which contains the beach communities of Hiratsuka and Chigasaki along the Tokaido Line, between the cities of Yokohama and Odawara.
Always accused of self-promotion but praised for his straight-talking, he’s been known as a maverick, an independent figure within the current LDP, someone more popular outside than inside of the party. These dynamics are in full display now, when he attempts to lead the LDP as its president.
His penchant for Twitter, pop-culture references as well as his more ‘progressive and open' ideas for the LDP, have made him kind of a darling of the youngest members of his party, who see on him as a clean break with decades of Abe Conservatism/statism as the central tenet of LDP ideology as well as the safest bet in the dangerous general election coming soon.
In addition, in the last few days he’s received the support of probably Japan’s (and the LDP's) two most popular politicians:
Ishiba Shigeru「石破茂」. Former Minister of Defense and Agriculture, he held the post of Secretary-General of the party and ran (and lost) against Shinzo Abe in several elections for the presidency of the LDP. He represents Tottori 1区.
Koizumi Shinjiro「小泉進次郎」. The son of former PM Koizumi Juuichiro, he represents Kanagawa 11区 and is the current Minister of Environment.
It’s a formidable team! One that makes the Opposition and some of their party colleagues shiver, for different reasons.
Just a few hours into the campaign, Kono Taro received the support of another prominent politician: Prime Minister Suga showed his support too for Kono Taro, whom he thanked as the maker of Japan’s vaccination drive, which is closing in on 70% of the people partially vaccinated. Polls show him as the most popular candidate among LDP supporters and the general public. No wonder the Opposition dreads him as the winner. Incidentally, they might be helped by some LDP elders and the Abe circle, who will likely do all in their power to stop ‘PM Kono' from happening.
Kishida Fumio and the ‘mild' continuation of Abe
For years, Kishida Fumio has been seen as a possible, future Prime Minister of Japan. And in 2021, he’s before the best chance of his life. A member of the Diet from Hiroshima District 1 in the city center since 1993, he was a long-term Minister of Foreign Affairs (2012-17) in the government of Shinzo Abe. Later he held the post of Minister of Defense for a month in 2017. It was during his time under Abe’s leadership when the idea of becoming a possible successor was built, thanks to his experience, his younger age and the existence of his own faction, whose reins he took in 2012.
Mild-mannered, soft-spoken, and arguably indecisive, these straits of his personality have been used to dismiss his chance too frequently in the last years. This time, even before PM Suga announced his intention not to run for another term, Kishida had announced his challenge, giving him a head start. He’s trying to position himself as the ‘post-Abe' candidate, framing ‘compassionate-conservative policies' that seek to break away from Japan’s neoliberalism arguing for a new ‘Japanese capitalism’, even though analysts are skeptic at best.
However, it hasn't been a good year for Kishida. In April of this year, the LDP lost a special election in his home turf of Hiroshima, for the Upper House, to replace councilor Kawai Anri, sent to prison over a corruption scandal. Her becoming a member of the 参議院 was a snub in 2019 by Abe and Suga themselves, who pushed for her candidacy over an existing LDP incumbent that belonged to Kishida’s faction (see more of that election here).
Even though Kishida is not Ab’’s candidate this time, the former Prime Minister is certainly working on elevating him to the post if Takaichi fails to advance to the runoff. And he will do it with delight. The standing of Kishida was certainly weakened for some time, but now it's his time to prove his critics wrong.
Takaichi Sanae and the hardcore right-wing of the party
To some extent, her candidacy was a surprise when it happened, heightened now by her rising stock in the party. Takaichi Sanae was a Minister of Internal Affairs & Communications in two different governments of Shinzo Abe (2014-2017 & 2019-2020). And since 1993, she’s been a member of the Lower House of the Diet, representing since 2012 the District 2 of that prefecture (which covers the conservative plain south of Nara City).
Her campaign, which was seen first as ‘limited at best' received a huge boost when former PM Abe publicly showed his support. At that moment, she became the candidate of the Abe circle and the conservative/hard right-wing of the party, cementing two very clear lines of support:
Belonging to the Hosoda Faction, the largest in the party provides her with an impressive pool of potential support from fellow faction members.
Becoming the ‘candidate of Abe Shinzo' helps dissuade other candidates to fill the right-wing line, even if it moves her too much to the right, in case of a likely runoff.
Abe is all IN for Takaichi Sane.
In the last days, she’s also received the support of other figures in the Abe camp, like:
Kishi Nobuo「岸信夫」: The current Minister of Defense and a China Hawk (pro-Taiwan faction), he’s the younger brother of former Pm Abe himself. He represents since 2012 Yamaguchi District 2.
Inada Tomomi「稲田朋美」: A former Minister of Defense with Abe (2016-17), and the first female, she’s known as another conservative within the party (her more favorable position toward LGBTQ right differentiates her from Takichi). She represents Fuki District 1 since 2005.
It appears that she's got locked the support of the Abe Children' the generation of LDP politicians arrived at the scene following Abe’s return in 2012 that share his conservative and nationalist politics, especially in cultural terms. At this time, the average number of terms in office of her supporters is an inch lower than Kono's, according to calculations.
Noda Seiko and a big tent party
Just hours before the deadline was reached, Noda Seiko, a former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications who represents Gifu District 1 (in Gifu City) managed to collect the signature of 20 colleagues to run for the presidency of the LDP, making official her candidacy.
Her support has been limited both in the polls and among fellow Diet members. She might struggle to move beyond the 20 supporters she holds from the start. However, the lack of broadening support has not deterred her from coming out with the policies that have been dear to her for years. She’s been calling for more inclusivity in the party towards minorities, women and LGBTQ people.
Gossip says (not without some sense) that her candidacy is instrumentalized by party elders in order to divide the vote with Kono Taro and complicate his outright victory in the first round. Nevertheless, it’s very newsworthy to see two different female candidates in the race. A historic first. Even though both women candidates couldn't be more different in their view of Japan and its society, epitomized by Noda's support, and Takaichi’s opposition, to gay marriage and the elective surname policy.
Two men
—
Two women
How Does the Election Work? Scenarios 🗳️
In the first round of the election, there are 7661 votes distributed in three categories:
275. One vote for each member of the Lower House of the Diet
108. One vote for each member of the Upper House of the Diet.
383. Distributed by the D'Hont method among 1 million, or so, of party members that will vote nationwide.
In order to be elected, you need 50%+1 of the votes in the first round, where these two types of 383 votes are cast. If not, the race moves to a second and final round (runoff).
In the runoff, only the Diet members have the right to vote (383 members), to choose between the Two Top finishers.
For the coming days, make sure to have in hand this useful spreadsheet made by Ōhamazaki Takuma (his analysis is great and I like to read him always) about the support each candidate receives from fellow Diet members.
At the time of the writing, 252 members of the Diet, out of 382, have made public their support (65%), which is distributed as follows:
Kishida Fumio 88
Takaichi Sanae 65
Kono Taro 78
Noda Seiko 21
Look forward to the remaining members making clear their position in the coming days.
With still plenty of time for the race to unfold, I think there’re some basic scenarios we can foresee for the election. Let’s take a look now:
Scenario 1: Kono wins outright 1️⃣
If Kono Taro wants to win the race, he needs to do it in the first round, following a mass vote by younger and less-experienced MPs, who bet on his popularity to help them retain their vulnerable seats, in an environment in which the party acknowledges, it will lose seats in the coming election. Former PM Abe is working already in avoiding a direct win by Kono Taro, betting on a runoff: if Kono advances to the runoff, he might be an underdog against the other candidate, supported by the rest.
Scenario 2: Kishida wins outright 2️⃣
Given the division between Kono, Takaichi and Kishida himself in almost equal parts (Noda, to a lesser extent), it seems difficult to see him winning outright. His campaigning is directly betting on a runoff where he would ‘win as the lesser of two evil' and the acceptable candidate for all sides. Probably he lacks support from party supporters and members to win on the first round (diet members wouldn’t be enough).
Scenario 3: Kono vs Kishida runoff 3️⃣
A priori, a final fight between Kono Taro and Kishida Fumio would seem the most likely scenario. On one hand, Kono Taro has the push from young MPs, Ishiba Shigeru and Koizumi Shinjiro and party members; on the other hand Kishida, with the overwhelming support of his own faction and those not on board with Kono from his Aso faction.
In this scenario, I think Kishida would be favored after receiving the votes from conservatives that'd see him as a lesser evil in comparison to Kono. Thats’ certainly Abe’s plan.
Scenario 4: Kono vs Takaichi runoff 4️⃣
Right now, this scenario would be a complete surprise given the strength of Kishida’s own camp. He appears to be the favorite among his fellow Diet members, so it would be a huge surprise. Being left out of the runoff would come about after a large support drop-off in favor of Takaichi, a collapse of the built-in support provided by his own faction which would prove not to be enough.
This scenario would create a headache for some party elders like Aso Taro, leader of his own faction (to which Kono belongs). For some, it’d become an almost impossible choice between:
Kono Taro, the favorite of the public who would have advanced to the runoff on a wave of support from LDP members, but not a universally liked politician among Diet members.
Takaichi Sanae, whose advancement to the runoff would show the strength of the conservatives Abe-linked forces in the party. Plus, she could become Japan’s first female Prime Minister. However, at the same time, her baggage could be too much of a liability in the election.
Scenario 5: Kishida vs Takaichi runoff 5️⃣
This is the scenario Derek Wessman sees at the moment. A monumental blow to Kono Taro. It’d be really something to see Takaichi Sanae leave him behind in the first round, what would confirm the staying power of former PM Abe and the right-wing of the party, still strong; even though in that scenario it’s difficult to see her winning against Kishida. Kono supporters likely wouldn't see Takaichi as a safe PM to lead the party into the election.
These scenarios are not written in order of likelihood, as the race still has to develop further. Nevertheless, I think some of them do work as the basic assumptions many of us, with eyes on Japanese Politics, are working at the moment, about the future of the race.
On my Twitter account @NihonPolitics, I have several polls running. Vote for your favorite!!
Schedule Until the General Election 📅
Today, make sure to read Corey Wallace's essential piece on the race.
And Daniel Smith’s one.
Basically, the schedule works as follows, in the own words of Mr. Wallace:
“There are currently 1.13 million LDP members eligible to vote. Their votes must arrive at the LDP regional chapter offices by September 28. The regional chapters will send their chapter’s vote totals to LDP HQ by September 29, and the 383 “Party Member Votes” (総党員算定票)—50 percent of the contests’ 766 overall votes—will be apportioned on a national basis using the using the D’Hondt method. This differs from both last year’s race and Abe’s 2012 election, when these votes were apportioned on a chapter-by-chapter basis (地方票) rather than a national individual member basis. Turnout in the last full party election in 2018 was 61.4 percent, with around 640,000 members casting votes”.
9 days left in the race!!
Future of the LDP & its Policy 📓
In the first few days of the campaign, the candidates have shown their differences in several policy measures, ranging from the economy and the manner of tackling the way out of the pandemic, to military affairs or social issues.
Make sure to check out Rintaro Nishimura's useful work on compiling the main policy proposals of each candidate!
They've also published their manifestos:
Watching the intervention of the candidates on the TV, I wonder if we couldn't do the same, instead of shouting ‘debate' matches. I like this format. For instance:
‘Do you support the “Elective Surname Policy"?’
Kono Taro came out in favor of Gay Marriage last week.
‘What about these measures against the pandemic?’
Changes to the LDP that also will affect the relationship of the party with other political actors, national and international:
Ties with China: the presumed end of Nikai Toshihiro's time as LDP Secretary-General will sever an important pipeline that existed with the Chinese regime. He’s been known for decades for his pro-China affiliation within the party. It remains to be seen what kind of relationship any of the candidates would like to build with the PRC.
Ties with Komeito: After a decade of Abe leadership in the party, followed by Suga’s transition, it'll be interesting to see how both parties continue cultivating their coalition. It’s leader Yamaguchi Natsuo acknowledged that they learned ‘from the news' about PM Suga’s retirement.
Ties with Ishin no Kai & Osaka LDP: For years, both Abe and Suga built a specially close relationship with Ishin no Kai, the party that controls Osaka. Now, the local LDP chapter there hopes to heal the relationship with the national leadership, and have their back, in order to fight Ishin in Osaka.
Follow me on Twitter where I’ll keep an eye on the race and the complete development of the general election, including the latest movements from the Opposition parties.
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The death in the last days of Takeshita Wataru, brother of former PM Takeshita Noboru, and a representative from Shimane District 2, who had decided not to run for reelection following his cancer treatment, will decrease the number of seats to 764 in total.