Prime Minister Suga's First Electoral Test
NihonPolitics: the Launch Edition! (Fixed)
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The next six months in Japanese Politics are going to be brutal (and busy). So…
Get ready.
In April already, we are reaching the first political milestone of the year: three concurrent Special Elections for the Lower (1) and Upper House (2) of the Japanese Diet (Parliament) that will weigh heavily on the future of the government of Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide, while the country finds itself in the middle of the fourth wave of the COVID19 pandemic in Japan.
These Three Special Elections will set the course of the future of the Suga Cabinet. They are very heterogeneous and located in disparate places in Japan, but all of them share their relevance to the future of Japanese Politics in 2021.
Coming up…
The Three Special Elections: 25th of April of 2021
Special Election in Hokkaido District 2
What if I told you that a former Agriculture minister of the government of Japan got caught in a corruption scandal related to *drum roll* chicken eggs?
Yup, that is exactly what happened. It makes sense in the world of Japanese political corruption, always filtered through the patina of naturalism…
In December of last year, the Japanese media starting reporting on the several instances in which a conservative politician from the governing LDP received big chunks of cash money (yes, CASH💰) from a representative of a chicken eggs farm located in Hiroshima (it is the kind of scandal that happens to you when you’ve been an Agriculture Minister I guess…)🐔🐔
The affair, which widened to include other politicians, in the end, forced him to resign creating the current vacancy.
A veteran of politics, Yoshikawa Takamori「吉川貴盛」first run for the second district of Hokkaido in 1996 when the Japanese electoral system was reorganized, and through these two decades, he has managed to represent the people of the constituency, located in the city of Sapporo, several times: from 2000 to 2003, and continuously since 2012 winning with less than 45% of the vote each time, though.
The corruption scandal, which threatened to harm the new government of Prime Minister Suga, forced the Liberal-Democratic Party to forgo a candidate in the special election that would replace Yoshikawa. They preferred instead to, likely, fight back for the seat in the general election after the summer. Without an LDP (or Komeito) candidate in the race, it became wide open for Matsuki Kenkou1, the candidate for the Constitutional Democratic Party, Japan's main opposition party.
This time, Matsuki is running with the support of all the rest of the Opposition parties, what makes him a favorite in the race.
As a matter of fact, in the last weeks, a very important development took place as the Japanese Communist Party decided to withdraw its own candidate from the race, allowing the unification of the opposition under a single candidate, Matsuki Kenkou1. This is an essential element for the strategy of the Japanese Opposition.
Once, the LDP decided not to present its own candidate in the race, several independents and conservative candidates are running with the goal of collecting the votes of those LDP supporters that might fell orphaned in this race.
The Second District of Hokkaido❄️ is located in the city of Sapporo2, and it covers two districts of the city: Kita-Ku「札幌市北区」& Higashi-Ku「札幌市東区」.
In the following graphic I made, you can see the political profile of this constituency. Based on the results of the 2019 House of Councillors election, the opposition parties combined won more votes than the government coalition of the LDP & Komeito, even though neither won over 50% of the vote. It is clearly a toss-up district.
Each political enjoys similar levels of support in both city districts, with exceptions: the CDPJ was stronger in Kita-Ku while the JCP had a comparatively better result in Higashi-Ku.
The election campaign is on! And the Opposition parties expect an important victory, lacking an LDP opponent. The race in the same district, when the general election comes, is another matter.
「To this day, Yoshikawa is still under house arrest and the local Hokkaido LDP remains without a leader after he resigned and his successor, Hashimoto Seiko became the Chairwoman of the Tokyo Olympics」
Special Election in Nagano Prefecture for the House of Councillors
In the last days of 2020, the Japanese political world was shocked to see a young and charismatic politician of the country lose his life. Among the close to 10k deaths caused by COVID19 since the coronavirus pandemic started in Japan in 2020, on the 27th of December, Japan woke up to the death of Hata Yuuichiro「羽田雄一郎」a young member of the Japanese Opposition, scion to a political family from the Prefecture of Nagano.
Son of former Prime Minister Hata Tsutomu「羽田孜」who governed Japan for two months in 1994 (during that year’s shortlived Opposition government), Hata Yuuichiro was an experienced politician, who represented Nagano at the House of Councillors since 1999 and had been Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure in 2012. Native to an Opposition-friendly prefecture, Hata Yuichiro had a smooth road during his political career, getting elected five times during the last two decades. He finished his years with an impressive victory, winning 55% of the vote won only two years ago.
Commiseration is a very powerful tool in politics. Everywhere. Even more when familiar ties are present: The coming special election in Nagano to fill the vacancy after Hata’s death brings immense emotional baggage, as Hata Yuichiro’s little brother, Hata Jiro「羽田次郎」is running to replace him. The death of his brother by covid, without getting tested (as it is still a limited feature of the Japanese strategy against the pandemic) is becoming a central point in the campaign of the Opposition in Nagano.
The coming election will be akin to a rematch of the 2019 election in Nagano for the Upper House. Why? Because Hata Jiro is facing the same man his older brother faced and trounced in that year’s election. A doctor from the second city of Nagano, the beautiful Matsumoto (which I cannot wait to visit on my next trip to Japan!), Komatsu Yutaka「小松裕」is running as the LDP candidate3 in what the party acknowledges is an uphill climb.
In the following map I made, you can see the results of the 2019 House of Councillors Election in Nagano between Komatsu himself and Hata Yuuichiro. It will be very interesting to see to what extent this month’s race mirrors 2019’s.
The strength of Hata Yuuhichiro, who ran under the Democratic Party for the People banner (DPFP) was felt all around Nagano.
Part of District 1 of Nagano, Komatu’s constituency, can be made out in the northeast of Nagano through the red color of the villages he won.
Certainly, I would not be surpised at all to to see a similar result in the special election the 25th of April.
Nagano is a prefecture *very* friendly to the Opposition parties (even in rural areas!), and they have managed to present a unified candidature behind Hata Jiro, after a long give and take:
His liberal positions are friendly to the Japanese Communist Party and they were ready to support him from the start.
However, the small DPFP, always allergic to cooperating with the communists, first rejected and then backtracked, ending up throwing their full-throated support behind him.
To understand their strength, check out the image below. These are results from the last national election in Nagano, the proportional party vote of 2019. They explain why the Opposition feels confident in the race. Polls show him ahead, but there are still days to go.
In two out of two elections presented in the Newsletter, the Opposition is running unified candidates. Such a change. It is the only way to go if they want to put a dent in the LDP’s decades-long conservative regime in Japan!
Special Election in Hiroshima Prefecture for the House of Councillors
Given the tilt towards the Opposition of both the Second District of Hokkaido and Nagano Prefecture, Hiroshima has become the mother of all battles⚔️ . The place where the LDP seeks to avoid that a bad (election) night turns into an utter disaster. And to this day, it is not clear they will be able to avoid one. Yikes.
Once Upon a Time in Hiroshima, corruption hit an LDP incumbent…(yea, two out of three in the Newsletter!). This story starts in the year 2019.
For the House of Councillors of that Year, in Hiroshima Prefecture, two were the seats up for grabs. Both were occupied by incumbents favored for reelection: One was Morimoto Shinji「森本真治」the Opposition candidate, who ended up getting re-elected for his second term as the top vote-getter. The other incumbent was Mizote Kensei「溝手顕正」a conservative guy from the LDP that had been peacefully representing Hiroshima since 1993, a steady career until the LDP headquarters in Tokyo decided that they would NOT support him for reelection this time. Grave mistake.
(I hope that if you have subscribed to NihonPolitics Newsletter, you enjoy the nitty-gritty of Japanese Politics!)
In the end, a female member of the Hiroshima Prefectural Assembly called Kawai Anri 「河井案里」was chosen as the other LDP candidate in the race. There were three reasons why she was chosen as the main LDP candidate in the race, over the existing incumbent that led to her win and his defeat:
Kawai Anri is the wife of Kawai Katsuyuki「河井克行」a member of the Diet that represents (well, he recently resigned. You’ll know why in the following paragraphs) Hiroshima 3 District and he was a close ally of then Prime Minister Abe.
Prime Minister Abe and his then Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide wanted to put a brake on the presidential ambitions of fellow Kishida Fumio, a former Foreign Affairs Minister who currently represents Hiroshima District 1 in the Diet. But why target Mizote? Well, because he was one of the main lieutenants of the Kishida faction within the LDP.
There was also a degree of bravado in trying to squeeze a second LDP winner when there were only 2 seats up for grabs, one of them occupied by an incumbent from the opposition.
It was an epic battle. In the end, Kawai Anri placed above Mizote Kensei, winning the second seat by less than 25k votes.
That’s the story of how she entered national politics. It was short-lived though.
Just a few months later, she was accused of doling out millions of yens to supporters and local elected officials throughout Hiroshima during her campaign, in what came to being known as the “vote-buying scandal”. Her husband, who represented the Third district of Hiroshima, was also implicated!
It threatened to engulf the new Suga4 Government.
In January, she was convicted of violating the Public Ofice Election Law「公職選挙法」and resigned her seat in the Upper House. Thus, the current election5:
In a headline: the race for Hiroshima pits a weakened LDP against a unified Opposition (three out of three seats!)
The LDP is presenting a young outsider, Nishita Hidenori「西田英範」a former bureaucrat from the METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) who is tasked with the heavy lift of restoring trust in his party after the conviction of Kawa Anri, even though the conservative tilt of Hiroshima Prefecture would make him a favorite, a priori. Against him, the whole opposition, (including the Communist Party from the outside) is supporting Miyaguchi Haroko「宮口はるこ」 a local announcer, who has already received the endorsement from different national figures that are descending to Hiroshima for rallies.
They have a tough battle ahead, though. If you take a look at the results in Hiroshima, by political party, from the 2019 election results, you can appreciate the strength of the government coalition (LDP + Komeito) which won over the 55% share of the vote that year. It was not even close. Hiroshima is a conservative prefecture.
In the end, as polls are showing, the key to the race may lie in two variables. To what extent:
The LDP candidate Nishita is able to bring to the polls Komeito voters, disillusioned after the scandal of Kawa Anri.
Miyaguchi Haroko manages to attract very much needed support from the tight Communist base in Hiroshima, which is not that large though.
It won’t be easy to win for the Opposition. Nevertheless, it looks like it will be tight…👀
Three races that pit the LDP & Komeito, the government of Prime Minister Suga, against candidates of the Opposition, which has finally managed to coalesce behind the same candidate in each race. It is the first test6, in the form of a national election, for the government of Suga, where we will be able to gauge his support and to the party.6
In the meantime, we’ll see if the LDP and Suga approve the first test at the polls. If they lose the three races on the same day…😬
【BONUS ELECTION】
On the same day, we’ll have to pay attention to another local election that’s been heated from the start.
I am talking about the race for Mayor of Nagoya, one of Japan’s biggest cities. It has become a fight of “all against Kawamura Takashi「河村たかし」, the incumbent Mayor”.
A right-wing nationalist, a polemist, Kawamura is a declared enemy of the whole Japanese political establishment: A fourth term incumbent fighting for his fifth term, he has never won with less than 58% of the vote. During the last years, he has been tilting too much the right, which made him everybody’s enemy. But, are there enough people in Nagoya willing to allow him to continue at the city office?
The most famous controversy around him currently centers around his participation in an (unsuccessful) recall attempt against the current Governor of Aichi Prefecture Omura Hideaki「大村秀章」 (where Nagoya is). The fight started in 2019 over the Aichi Art Triennial, where an exhibition about freedom of expression took place. It was not liked by several conservatives, including Mayor Takeshi because some of its pieces “hurt the feeling” of Japan and the Imperial System. The Governor defended the art festival.
Thus, a recall attempt which was found to be full of sh*t: over 80% of the signatures collected by the Mayor himself and other collaborators (including right-wing agitator Takasu Katsuya) were fake7!
The guy is now fighting for his political life.
Every other party, including the LDP, Komeito, the CDPJ, DPFP and even the communists are supporting Yokoi Toshiaki「横井利明」, a former LDP Nagoya city councilor, in an attemtp to dislodedge Mayor Takashi from the city hall.
There’s been only one poll publicly available, and it shows Mayor Takashi on the lead…👀
Thank YOU for reading the first entry of my Newsletter. I hope you liked it. This is just the beginning. 🤗🤗
Next week, I will start with the usual, shorter newsletter format. Long-reads like this will only happen on special occasions.
In the meantime, follow me on Twitter at @NihonPolitics for the latest news!
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Matsuki Kenkou had previously belonged to some right of center opposition parties like Ishin no Tou「維新の党」 and Kibou no Tou「希望の党」, a banner under which he ran and lost to Yoshikawa himself in 2017.
From 2012 to 2017 he used to represent, through the proportional representation of the HokurikuShinetsu region, the District 1 of Nagano, which he lost to represent directly as the district MP.
There are voices from Hiroshima that are even asking Prime Minister Suga not to go for the campaign. Yikes.
The election is not even a “special election” 「補欠選挙」but instead a “repeat election” 「再選挙」because the previous one, in which she was elected, is considered invalid given the corruption involved.
The second one is set for July: the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election. The final one will be the General Election slated to be held in the fall.