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The Race for Mayor of Yokohama Heats Up The Summer
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Welcome to the NihonPolitics Newsletter, a place where to find news about Japan and its politics in English, in order to help people with limited abilities in the Japanese language to know more about the country they love and its politics, which sometimes does seem difficult to understand from the outside.
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The Essentials: News and weekly politics about Japan.🏆
Progress on the Vaccination Process of Japan💉
Tweet(s) of the Week💬
The Essentials: News and weekly politics about Japan.🏆
The Race for Mayor of Yokohama, Japan’s Second City, Starts
Last Sunday, on the 8th of August, the election campaign started for the office of the Mayor of Yokohama, Japans’ second city and the capital of the Prefecture of Kanagawa, next door to Tokyo.
After the race for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly in July, which I covered in three different pieces in July (Preview 1, Preview 2 and results), the political world in Japan has shifted its eyes to the city of Yokohama, one of the few preliminary fights left before the general election takes place in October or November, at the latest.
A city of around 3.8 million inhabitants, it is located in the southern edge of Tokyo Bay sandwiched along the coast between the city of Kawasaki, which neighbors Tokyo in the East, and the Miura Peninsula「三浦半島」. Japan’s second city by population, it could arguably be the first one if we do not consider Tokyo a city, because it’s not one, rather, a Metropolis Prefecture.
Yokohama is formed by 17 wards: from the downtown area around Minato-Mirai and Yokohama Station to the northern edges around the progressive suburbs of Tokyo or the industrial waterfront next to Kawasaki City:
Aoba Ward青葉区; Asahi Ward/旭区; Izumi Ward/泉区; Isogo Ward/磯子区; Kanagawa Ward/神奈川区; Kanazawa Ward/金沢区; Konan Ward/港南区; Kohoku Ward/港北区; Sakae Ward/栄区; Seya Ward/瀬谷区; Tsuzuki Ward/都築区; Tsurumi Ward/鶴見区; Totsuka Ward/戸塚区; Nishi Ward/西区; Hodogaya Ward/保土ヶ谷区; Midori Ward/緑区 & Minami Ward/南区
A Controversial Casino
At the center of the race, we find a casino. Better said, a big project called an “Integrated Resort”,「統合型リゾート施設」in Japanese. Approved by law in the Japanese Parliament in 2016, Japan allowed then for the first time casinos and open gambling in this territory if it was restricted to the so-called IR, mega parks and recreation complex with enjoyment and recreation facilities that would in theory attract millions of Japanese and overseas tourists, generating new revenue. Since then, Yokohama became one of the places where a limited casino would be set up once the city showed its interest in such a project (another one is in the works in Osaka City, pushed by the governing Osaka Ishin no Kai).
Since 2016 however, the proposal to establish an IR in the harbor of Yokohama has not been met with open hands; instead, it’s been shown to be a *very unpopular idea*. Poll after poll has shown that a majority of the citizens of Yokohama City oppose the project of the so-called “Integrated Resort”; thus, it’s become arguably the focal point of the political discussion in Yokohama City. In 2021, along with the fight against COVID and the distribution of vaccines, the IR project will be central in the election: it is the contentious issue.
In January of this year, the city council of Yokohama rejected, with the votes of the LDP and Komeito governing coalition, a proposal by several citizens groups to put the IR project before the voters in a referendum. The organizers had collected close to 200k signatures.
According to the latest numbers available, the opposition to the project is close to 60%. Being opposed to the project has become almost a requirement for the candidates running for Mayor of Yokohama. However, there is still a sizable part of the population, mainly male and younger, that is in favor of the project. The candidate that manages to consolidate the vote in favor of the IR might end up victorious, once the anti-IR is set to be divided among several candidates: I’m looking at the current Mayor Yahashi Fumiko, the lone main unabashedly pro-IR candidate in the race.
Nothing indicates she is far away from clinging to the fourth term in office (at least yet).
Nevertheless, this time she is the pro-IR candidate without the backing of either the LDP or Komeito…
Previous national results in Yokohama
In the next two charts, I’d like to show you the results from the city of Yokohama in the last two national elections that have taken place. Both shows similar results:
In 2017, in the 48th House of Representatives Election, the parties of the government coalition (the LDP and Komeito) won a combined 44% of the vote, numbers roughly on the average of the prefecture of Kanagawa as a whole.
On the side of the Opposition, there was a lot of movement after the implosion of the Democratic Party in 2017, with new parties, created just that year. The center-left CDPJ found in Yokohama, like across the Kanto Region, it’s base of support. The 26% of the vote it won put it just 8 points below the LDP. The Communist Party held its own at 8%.
The centrist Pary of Hope, created in 2017 and disbanded soon after, won almost 16% of the vote. I decided not to include them in the total of the Opposition parties, which topped at 35%.
In 2019, in that year’s 25th House of Councillors election, the Opposition parties experienced a steep improvement in comparison to 2017, growing around 6 points. Even though the CDPJ lost ground (-6 points), it was compensated by the growth of the Communist and the appearance of two new parties: Reiwa Shinsengumi and the DPFP, formed from the remnants of the Pay of Hope.
At the same time that the LDP & Komeito stayed still, Ishin no Kai made a big leap, nearing 10% of the vote in Yokohama.
The dominance, if narrow, of the LDP and Komeito also shows in the legislative body of the city: Currently, after the 2019 election, the LDP and Komeito control the Yokohama City Council with 54 seats out of 86.
Yokohama is a competitive city between the Government parties, LDP & Komeito, and the Opposition. That’s why we can expect a tight race for mayor on the 22nd! Without mentioning the large number of toss-up seats in Yokohama up for grabs in the next general election.
Like Maeda-san reminds us, these were the results, in raw votes, from 2019:
Proportional vote:
LDP/Komeito: 686.500 (+142.112)
Opposition: 544.388
District vote:
LDP/Komeito: 631.992 (+56.638)
Opposition: 575.354
Let’s check out the main five candidates:
1) Hayashi Fumiko Fights her last Gasp「林文子」
After months of speculation over her fragile health, before the start of the summer Hayashi Fumiko「林文子」 the 3-term Mayor of Yokohama City announced her run for a new term in office.
She became the first in an impressive slate of big candidates vying for control of Japans’ second city, in a race widely seen as a preview of the general election that will take place in the fall. With 12 years of experience, Hayashi Fumiko’s race has her in a central position in favor of the controversial IR project, which she has supported for years. That support, even if a minority among the citizens of her city, puts her in a favorable position; she might be able to capitalize the supporters of the IR behind her against scattered anti-IR candidates.
After her health problem which was close to derailing her political career, her state and her candidacy are in a quagmire. By late spring, the LDP decided she was too weak to be supported and dropped the mayor, even though some member of the local LDP announced their support because of the Integrated Report question. After four years of backing the project, it’s doubtful that she retains the popularity of previous years when she was not associated with it.
In her last election, Hayashi Fumiko barely won more than 50% of the vote after a shoo-in win in 2013. Why? Because it was the first election where the anti-Integrated Resort movement could show their disapproval once the project was unveiled in 2016. In fact, the other two 2017 candidates ran against the IR program and won 527.562 votes, just 70.553 fewer than she did.
The opposition has been clear-marked since then; they’ve been laser-focused on fighting against the Integrated Resort Program, which has split the public in Yokohama and scored Mayor Hayashi to the right.
In this election, it remains to be seen what’s the real power she’s got left, scarred after four years of fierce opposition and the mentioned healthcare problems. We’ll see what’s left of Hayashi Fumiko without the LDP and Komeito behind her this time too. The polarization of the political debate around the IR project could probably deprive her of a sizable part of the female vote what’s been part of her base for years: polls show that women reject the project in higher numbers than men.
2) The non-LDP LDP candidate Okonogi Hachiro「小此木八郎」
A veteran member of the Liberal Democratic Party, Okonogi Hachiro was not in anyone’s cards to become a candidate for Mayor of Yokohama.
First elected in 1993, Okonogi currently represents the Third District of Yokohama in the House of Representatives and led since 2020 the National Commission of Public Safety「国家公安委員会」, a body attached to the Cabinet that regulates the Japanese Police (he had held the same position before between 2017 & 2018). The lack of other conservative candidates available to run pushed Okonogi to the race even though it’s really rare for members of the Cabinet to run for local offices like these.
According to reports from the Japanese Media, PM Suga was ready to support Mayor Hayashi Fumiko if no other LDPer ran. The party sounded out other politicians than Mihara Junko「三原じゅん子」 (LDP HoC member from Kanagawa itself) or the current Governor Kuroiwa Yuuji「黒岩祐治」。 In the end, Okonogi Hachiro surprised everyone by announcing his candidacy: and he would run in a platform AGAINST the Integrated Resort.
Coming out against the IR, pushed by the national government for years, not only shocked the party but it deprived him of receiving the LDP endorsement, who officially has no candidate in the race.
Even though a majority of the LDP member of the City Council support him it remains to be seen to see if he can corral pro-IR (LDP) voters now…
I think it was also a smart move for Okonogi to come out opposing the IR; anything else would have left the anti-IR lane to the Opposition candidate Yamanaka while he would have positioned himself beside the current mayor. Now he can position himself against the unpopular IRProject giving center-right voters an acceptable alternative to Yamanaka, who was not one.
Even though it may have hurt him among conservative colleagues, Okonogi has become the eventual candidate of Suga and the party. A victory would provide a much-needed boost month away from the general election… Even if current Prime Minister Suga supported the IR project, and Okonogi Hachiro does not (he’s calling for his cancellation), it’s difficult to argue that a victory for Okonogi would not also be a win for PM Suga:
It could be the lone positive election result for PM Suga in 2021.
The final support for Okonogi will depend on what share of the LDP voters remains in favor of the IR; that would lean the scale in his or Mayor Hayashi’s favor:
Okonogi Hachiro, the unofficial LDP and Komeito candidate and Hayashi Fumiko are fighting for somewhat similar kinds of voters: young and middle-aged male voters ambivalent about the project (IR) who could no bring themselves to vote for the opposition.
3) The Opposition Coalesces around Yamanaka Takeharu「山中竹春」
For years, the Opposition parties, as well as citizen groups, have been fighting against the plan to set up an Integrated Resort, with casinos and entertainment facilities in the harbor of Yokohama. It's not an exaggeration to say that they had eyed the race for Mayor for long as an opportunity to conquer Japan's second city and kill once and for all the project.
Without much fanfare, the process of consolidation behind a single candidate proved to be quite uneventful this time!
The CDP settled on Yamanaka Takeharu a science professor from Yokohama University as its candidate, who since the start, has built his campaign centered around the rejection to the IR project, central to the Opposition policy in the city. A candidacy to build upon the years-long struggle against it against the IR.
Very quickly, cognisant of the need to unify behind a single anti-IR candidate, the rest of the parties recently decided to follow him: the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democrats support him; even the centrist Rengo Union「連合」which had previous ties to the Hayashi Administration has endorsed him.
Yamanaka Takeharu has become thus the candidate of the Opposition even though he's not alone in opposing the IR, a flag he must share with others. His movement towards becoming the lone Oppositojn candidate 「野党」in the race has been pretty smooth, a good point in his candidacy given that they usually suffer from weaker-than-desire joint fight organization「野党共闘」, that moves besides simply opposing the LDP.
It remains to be seen the extent to which he can consolidate support from the JCP. Yokohama is a good city for the Opposition and the CDP; nevertheless, they need a high turnout that goes beyond the hardcore activists that have been fighting the project for years already.
To this day, Yamanaka’s campaign seems to have expanded beyond the traditional scope of center-left local policies, which heavily rests on grassroots and social activists. His frontal opposition to the IR project has won him some friends in unusual places from the business establishment of the city. For instance, Fujiki Yukio「藤木幸夫」、an influential businessman with decades working on the development of the city and the harbor on his back, the so-called “Hama (beach) Don”「ハマのドン」Fujiki Yukio has been fighting against the construction of the casino in Yokohama for years, and now he has endorsed a left-wing candidate like Yamanaka, despite previous ties with the governing LDP administrations, including PM Suga. Influential figures like Fujiki Yukio give another gravitas to the candidacy of someone like Yamanaka Takeharu. Never underestimate the power and influence of local figures like him to tilt a race.
More than anything, he seems to be on an anti-Hayashi campaign though…
4) Ishin no Kai Loses His Man in Kanagawa「松沢成文」
If there's a candidacy that surprised me, it's that one of Matsuzawa Shigefumi.「松沢成文」
A member of the House of Councillors, he had been previously the Governor of Kanagawa Prefecture (2003-2011). In 2013, he entered national politics, elected to the Upper House for the first time. In 2019, he was reelected to the House of Councillors as an Ishin no Kai candidate.
His run for Mayor of Yokohama City now was surprising. In order to run, he not only had to resign his seat in the Upper House but he’s been forced to leave his party, 維新の会、once he showed his public opposition to the Integrated Resort project (Osaka Ishin no Kai is pushing for another IR in Osaka).
While he won 15.8% at the prefectural level in 2019, in the city of Yokohama he barely took 15% of the vote, an extremely unusual high number regardless for an Ishin no Kai candidate outside of Kansai. His time as Governor helped surely him:
Results by year in Yokohama & Kanagawa Prefecture:
2019: 226.729 (15%) — 575.884 votes (15.8%)
2013: 315.888 (19.4%) — 740.207votes (18.8%)
In the 2019 race, his support of over 16% was concentrated in the northern wards of Yokohama, which lie next to the western progressive and young suburbs of Tokyo.
Without the backing of Ishin no Kai, Matsuzawa might struggle to get beyond single digits in spite of his name recognition this time. Nevertheless, it's an audacious run, because he's had to resign his seat in the Upper House (in 2022 there'll be five instead of four seats up for grabs in Kanagawa Prefecture).
5) A Governor of Nagano in Yokohama?「田中康夫」
In this race, Tanaka Yasuo「/田中康」is one of the most intriguing candidates in the race.
A politician (and a writer apparently), he was governor of the prefecture of Nagano from 200 to 2006. And between 2009 and 2012 he represented Hyogo’s 8th District in the Lower House… In 2021, he’s also running also against the Casino project even though it doesn't appear to be his top priority in the campaign, focusing instead on the economic development of the city.
Since 2015 he's been living in Yokohama and taken part in several radio programs, which explains his run for mayor. It doesn’t look like that name recognition will get him very far in the race though. By the way, in 2016 he ran in Tokyo for the HoC as an Ishin no Kai candidate (he regrets that)
Apart from these 5, there are other 3 candidates in the race:
Tsubukura Yoshikazu, businessman「坪倉良和」(the bald guy).
Fukuda Mineyuki, a former member of the House of Representatives from Kanagawa’s 8th District through proportional representation「福田峰之」, he’s the only other candidate that supports the IR besides the mayor (on a green t-shirt).
Oota Masataka「太田 正孝」, former 11-term member of the Yokohama City Council last reelected in 2019 as part of the CDPJ (on a yellow t-shirt)
Although he’s not a candidate, the race is also extremely important for Prime Minister Suga. Yokohama is his own backyard; he’s represnted Kanagawa’s Distrcit Two in Yokohama since 1996.
Even though the conventional wisdom from several days ago put Okonogi Hachiro as a favorite to win the race (and he still might be) the ground seems to be shifting, with the first polls showing the Opposition candidate Yamanaka gaining ground behind him. If Okonogi, someone as close as it gets to Suga were to lose, what would that say about the standing of the Prime Minister? It’d be another loss, in the year of never-ending defeats, for him and his party. The LDP seems to be bracing for that…
The last nail in the coffin? The Coup de Grace?
The election takes place on the 22nd of August. Follow the race with me on Twitter at @NihonPolitics !!
Progress on the Vaccination Process of Japan💉
Meanwhile, the vaccination process continues in the summer in Japan. In the last weeks, the feared slowdown finally materialized, even if it did so with less violence than some expected.
In the weekly chart, you can see it below. The reduction is especially noticeable in the number of first doses, which were cut down from:
5.5 million in early July to only 2.8 million at the end of last month
It might be a few weeks before Japan can go back to over 4 million first doses/week as it occurred from early May to the end of July every week. At the same time, the number of second doses has inched above average, between 4.5 and 5 million each week now (always remember that the daily numbers are constantly being updated so expect the real number of doses to be higher than those on the current charts).
In the next one, you can see the amount of doses administered per month. In July, month 6 of the vaccination process, more than 35 million doses were administered, surpassing June’s record by a hair (+300k): in July there was, as expected, an increase in the number of second doses in comparison to the previous month.
We’ll see how high the month 7, August, can get. It might not reach the totals of the previous two months given the slowdown in the number of first doses delivered lately though.
The slowdown is also notable in the daily numbers. Even though they still are above the 1 million shots a day, they have been reduced from close to 1.5 million that was being administered in mid-July.
Nevertheless, there’s a catch to this analysis.
There are close to 10 MILLION DOSES that the government added to the official vaccination website which were administered in universities and workplaces. They count towards the total, however, they still have not been distributed in the daily tallies…
That’s why I wonder if we could have surpassed 2 million doses in any day in the last month and we don’t know it yet…🤷♂️🤷♂️
Let’s see now the state of vaccination by prefecture.
Nationally, Japan is at 🗾🗾:
48% with one dose
36% completely vaccinated
These numbers vary widely within the country. In the number of FIRST DOSES, the Top Three:
Yamaguchi 56.9%
Wakayama 54.6%
Yamagata 51.8%
All of them eminently rural prefectures of Japan. On the other end, urban Japan is still lagging at the same time it suffers from a violent wave of COVID: for instance, Saitama is only 38% and Hiroshima at 45%. 😷😷
In the number of SECOND DOSES , we find a similar situation, with urban Japan barely over 30% of their population completely immunized (for example, Aichi is at 30% or Tokyo at 29.3% only) while other smaller prefectures find themselves just days away from having at least half o their population doubly-vaxxed:
Yamaguchi 44.7% 👏
Wakayama 43.4% 👏
Saga 42.9% 👏
Tweet(s) of the Week💬
I made some funny memes in the last weeks 😂
Cue One Piece! 😂
これがすごいよ
Amazing photobombing last week in Kanagawa! 笑笑
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