Japan 2021 House of Representatives Election: A Preview🗳️🗾
The Opposition and the LDP Fight in the Most Exciting Election in Years!
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Let’s go!!!
On the 31st of October, Japan goes to the polls.
A little over 100 million Japanese citizens are eligible to freely cast their ballots to elect the 465 members that form the Lower Hosue of the Diet, the House of Representatives「衆議院 in Japanese」. This of 2021 will be the 49th Election to the Lower House of the Diet after the first ones took place in 1890 for the Imperial Diet of the Meiji Era.
I want to divide this article into three big parts in order to explain what’s coming in the election in just a few days:
First, I will present the current state of Japanese politics and of the different political parties running in the election.
Second, a brief explanation about how the electoral system works and what we can expect on election night.
Third, and last, a quick overview of the 47 prefectures and some of the most interesting districts to follow.
State of Japanese Politics
Historically, this election is an anomaly. For the first time in 45 years, the election is taking place when is due: after its 4 year-term ends. This is not normal in the Japanese political system, prone to snap elections and frequent government turnovers (changes of prime ministers, better said).
Thus this election will occur 4 years after the last took place in 2017. The different political parties arrive at the election with different goals and from divergent starting points. A lot has happened since the last time in 2017 when the old Democratic Party of Japan died and the new Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan was created to become the leading opposition party to the LDP. In the meantime, Japan has changed three times of Prime Minister after the resignation of Abe Shinzo for health reasons and the short-lived, 1-year term of his Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide who led Japan through the worst of the pandemic in 2021, to end up resigning last month.
Just a few weeks after he became LDP President and Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio has a big test in front. A lot at stake for himself and his party in the coming election, which is shaping up to be the most competitive and exciting in years. YES!
Eight main political parties are running in the election. Let’s see how of them arrives at the election and what are their goals on the 31st of October. Concurrently, I will also show you some of their history.
Currently, this is the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives of Japan:
Of 465 seats:
The government, formed by the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP🔴) & Komeito (Komeito☸️), enjoys a comfortable absolute majority of 305 seats, just shy of the 310 needed for constitutional reform.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ🔵) holds 110 seats after it was formed in 2017, becoming the main opposition party of Japan.
Ishin no Kai (Ishin🏯), a center-right party based in Osaka, holds 23 seats.
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP🟣) has 12 seats in the Diet.
The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP🟡) has only 8 seats in the Diet, of those who chose in 2020 not to merge with the CDPJ.
Reiwa Shinsengumi (Reiwa🌸), the Social-Democratic Party (SDPJ🌹) and the anti-NHK (NHK📺) party have one seat each.
Plus, there are other independents and four vacancies
Which are the parties?
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 🔴
Since 2009, 2021 will be the first election when the party is not led by Shinzo Abe, who became Prime Minister in 2012 after a short stint six years before. The results for the party in 2017 were excellent, with just a handful of losses in comparison to 2014. Since Abe returned in 2012, the LDP has managed to maintain around 290 seats in each election, a streak that goes back to the LDP wave of 2005 under Prime Minister Koizumi (with the one-time exception of the DPJ wave of 2009 that saw the LDP out of government for the second time ever).
In this election, though, the handling of the pandemic, corruption cases as well as the lack of enthusiasm for the new prime minister, Kishida Fumio, have the party on edge and ready to lose dozens of seats:
There's a very real chance of the LDP having its worst results since 2003.
Analysts and watchers of Japanese Politics are talking about a loss of around “30-40” seats on election night for the LDP. In the past weeks, the party even has been publicly downplaying its chances, aiming for a single majority of 233 seats, they say. Even if the LDP manages to maintain the government, what would be assured with the seats Komeito provides, falling below the majority threshold of 233 seats, which is not out of question, would be a shocker.
The party is probably aiming for a simple majority bolstered by Komeito to an “absolute stable majority” of around 260-270 seats (in a best-case scenario).
It’s difficult to expect the LDP to lose the government (does anyone even consider that option seriously?). At the same time, we should not fall into the trap: the LDP, seeing its excellent results in the last four elections, is probably headed towards historically *bad results* not since in twenty years (ok, with the exception of 2009).
Yes, they might continue governing.
The year 2017 epitomized the demise of mainstream opposition, with the final death of the Democratic Party of Japan just before the election. It allowed the LDP to have its best result of the Abe years in terms of the nationwide proportional vote (33.3%), the third-best of the last twenty years after the elections in the early 2000s under popular PM Koizumi (2003 & 2005).
This year, the party is playing defense, running with the goal of minimizing losses, which were slated to be large under former PM Suga. Can PM Kishida stop the bleeding? We don't know what will happen, but 2021 has already been a really bad year for the LDP in several elections around the country
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) 🔵
Formed right before the 2017 election, the CDPJ arrives at this race with the goal of increasing seats. Lots of them. Even though these four years in the Diet have allowed it to gain seats thanks to the inclusion of members of the old Party of Hope (which also ran in 2017 and fizzled), the party led by Edano aims to consolidate the 55 seats won then and build upon the 110 seats it enjoys now.
Currently, the party is probably looking at winning between “120-140” seats, racking up wins in urban Japan, in prefectures like Aichi, Saitama or Tokyo.
Even though the share of the vote for the party has declined since 2017, when it won close to 20% in comparison to 2019's election for the Upper House when it took 16%, the group led by Edano has been able to consolidate a new center-left, a progressive project that challenges the conservative and unmovable policies of the LDP. Any number that is above close to 20%, would be a success for Edano himself and his party.
However, the party might be concerned about the proportional vote in the end. Given the increased presence of CDPJ candidates in single-member districts, the decrease of communist ones might push progressive voters to choose a “CDPJ candidate in the district and a JCP vote in the proportional ballot”, a line that probably worries the leadership of the party. In fact, it’s expected that the JCP improves its proportional vote nationwide this time.
Komeito ☸️
Incredibly stable thanks to a loyal voting base from the Buddhist group of Soka Gakkai「創価学会」, Komeito has been winning around 30 seats for the last twenty years, becoming an integral part for the government of the LDP even though the LDP did not need them for a simple majority for most of the time (the last hung parliament took place in 2003. Will 2021 be a return to that? It’s likely).
The 29 seats it won in 217 were the worst result since the DPJ election wave of 2009.
In 2021, however, Komeito might become essential for the government of Prime Minister Kishida if the LDP falls below the threshold of 233 seats needed for an outright, simple majority in the Diet.
The stability in the number of seats won by Kometio and in the vote share, however, shouldn’t hide a reality: in 2017 the party won the fewest votes ever, or at least since 1998, a worrying trend that doesn’t scape party leaders. A lack of mobilization of young followers as well as dwindling numbers among its supporters, has made the decline unavoidable. Nevertheless, Komeito officials have floated the number of “8 million” as a possible but difficult target for 2021. In fact, it’d be the best result since 2009.
Election experts see Komeito maintaining its strength, in terms of seats in the election. In the race for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly last summer, Komeito defied expectations; many predicted its demise and in the end, it kept its 33 seats in the metropolitan assembly. Never underestimate them. We’ll see if they can avoid a record-low number of votes in 2021, holding the floor of 6.5 million votes.
Will Komeito save the LDP’s a**, as they did, sort of, in the election for the Assembly of Tokyo? (it was for naught because they didn’t even reach a majority together).
Ishin no Kai (Ishin🏯)
The center-right, Osaka-based Ishin no Kai, arrives at the election with the clear goal of doubling the number of seats it has now, to between “20 and 30”, in what will be its second foray into national politics after a bad electoral result in 2017. The history of Ishin no Kai is long and difficult to explain here, but the current party Ishin no Kai arrives almost anew in 2021. A lot has happened in Japanese politics since 2017, including in Osaka, where the party has consolidated its strength as the dominant party. Now, it aims to widen its presence in other parts of Japan, especially in the Kanto Region, focused in Tokyo. The basic, minimum goal of Ishin no Kai is winning 21 seats, in order to have the right to independently introduce bill proposals in the Diet, a threshold it should easily surpass.
The party has already signaled it wants to contribute to the LDP losing its majority, and it’ll do its part in Osaka, where plenty of districts held by LDP incumbents are at risk of flipping.
The LDP really is at risk of being wiped out of Osaka, a loss of seats that would contribute to a possible bad result nationwide.
Beyond Osaka, Ishin no Kai is unlikely to win any single-member districts, and the party is focusing instead on winning votes for its regional proportional lists, to win seats this way in places like Tokyo, Hokkaido or Minami-Kanto (besides the Kinki block in Kansai).
The Japanese Communist Party (JCP🟣)
This is a peculiar election for the Japanese Communist Party. Along with the CDP, the JCP has been immersed in a difficult process of unification of candidates in the 289 single-member districts of the country. The party’s long history of grassroots strength allowed it to run a lot of candidates in districts around the country. This year, however, the JCP will field the lowest number ever (since the electoral system changed in the 1990s) after agreeing to unify with the CDP in more than 200 districts, a double-edged sword. It was a tough choice, but in the end, the party agreed to drop many of its candidates in order to bolster the CDP candidates, seen as mainstream and “more electable”, without the label of “communist” in front. At the same time, the party is in front of a historic opportunity of forming with the other opposition parties (CDP, SDP & Reiwa) unified candidacies that ease the fight hand-to-hand against the LDP.
After years of weakness, during the heydays of the old Democratic Party, the JCP is back to over 10% of the vote in national elections. This time, the JCP wants to consolidate that position:
The lack of JCP candidates in many districts might hamper the share of the vote of the party in precisely those districts (if no JCP candidate is found in the district, that may directly decrease the share of the vote the party wins in that place).
Given that diminished slate of candidates in SMDs, the party is emphasizing voting for the party in the regional proportional lists [比例代表」regardles of the candidate, which might provide the party with historical gains if opposition voters decide to fill the name of the party in the proportional ballot.
In terms of votes, the JCP looks stable with over 4 million votes in the last years. Winning 5 million votes would be a fantastic result for the party, which approaches the election hopeful and excited over the cooperation achieved with the other opposition parties, but anxious about its own state given the sacrifices made.
In spite of the record low number of SMD candidates in 2021, the party arrives at the election with some difficult but clear opportunities to win districts, a rare occurrence for the JCP. Mainly:
To keep its lone SMD in Okinawa District 1.
To pick up an open seat in Kyoto District One, the heart of Japan’s old imperial capital after the retirement of its previous LDP incumbent. Kyoto is a communist stronghold.
To pick up two seats in Nagano District 3区 and Tokyo District 20区 where the races appear close.
The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP🟡)
The DPFP arrives at the election in a delicate position. This DPFP is not the same that won 7% of the vote in the Hosue of Councillors Election of 2019, but a diminished one. The current DPFP led by Tamaki Yuuichiro is formed by the remnants of those MPs that in 2020 chose not to merge with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan; MPs to the right of the CDPJ that chose to stay in a small party that is now fighting for relevance in 2021.
The goals are not very ambitious:
First, the party wants to maintain its incumbents in Nagasaki, Kagawa, Kyoto, Wakayama and Aichi (5), likely adding more in Shiga, Ibaraki or Saitama
Beyond the candidates on SMDS, the aim must be to contain a possible decline in the number of votes for the proportional representation.
Criticized by many (and praised by others who seek a “centrist way in Japanese politics for non-LDP and non-JCP supporters”) for its reluctance to fully integrate into the cooperation with other opposition parties (mainly for its “communist allergy”), Tamaki has been working hard to carve out a small space for himself and his dozen colleagues. Small but probably there exists such a place in Japanese politics (if voters decide so in the voting ballot). The real strength of the party is however in the Upper House, and next year’s election will be the real test for the viability of the party.
Reiwa Shinsengumi (Reiwa🌸)
Even though this election could have been key for the reaffirmation of Reiwa Shinsengumi as an established political party in Japan, after it was born in 2019 and took two proportional seats in that year's election, last-minute developments have complicated a lot the race for Yamamoto Taro and his party. The party started the year with the goal of fielding a lot of candidates in SMDs around Japan, aiming even to turn them into the unified Opposition candidate in said districts. In the end, the unification process and pressure from the CDP and left-wing voters pushed Reiwa to lower the number of candidates to only 12 seats, and only two of them in Tokyo.
The decline was symbolized in the brouhaha caused by Yamamoto himself when he announced he'd run in Tokyo District 8 even though the CDP already had a strong candidate in the race. In the end, he bowed out.
At this moment, Reiwa is on the line: Yamamoto Taro finally chose to be candidate #1 in the PR list from Tokyo and the odds aren't low of him being the lone candidate elected from Reiwa in 2021.
Anything beyond winning a single seat, would be a victory for Reiwa. A humble one though.
Social-Democratic Party (SDPJ🌹)
The history of the Social-Democratic Party of Japan in the last twenty years is one of decline. Precipitous decline. Is 2021 the last gasp of the party successor of the old Socialist Party of Japan that fought the LDP in the post-war decades?
The SDPJ arrives at the election at a very delicate point. Last year, a large part of the party chose to merge and integrate with the CDP, in a process that left its current leader Fukushima Mizuho, a central and enthusiastic figure of the Opposition in Japan, almost “alone” within the party. Survival is at stake.
Thus, this year the goals are narrow:
First, the party wants to hold the Okinawa District Two区 whose SDPJ incumbent is retiring. It’s been the lone SMD held by the party for years.
Second, the SDP wants to retain the lone seat they won in the regional proportional list in Kyushu Island, which at the moment is not guaranteed.
If the SDP achieves those two goals (winning 2 seats) and manages to win over 1 million votes, a line they have only once fallen below (precisely in the previous HoR election), they shall be relieved, given the circumstances, the party has been through in the last 12 months. It’s a tough hurdle to overcome though.
Anti-NHK (NHK📺)
Finally, the populist anti-NHK party.
This party makes no sense. Don’t try to find it.
Its leader Tachibana Takashi won a seat in the Upper House in 2019in the PR, after his party took over 840k votes.
This time, we should not expect much difference. Probably a decline in votes?
House of Representatives Election in Japan: How it works? 🗾
In the Election for the House of Representatives of Japan, there are two sets of candidates to be elected. 465 members of the Diet elected in two different ballots:
176 members elected proportionally in regional blocks.
289 members elected in single-member districts around Japan.
Regional Proportional lists: the voters have to write the name of the ‘party’ whose votes are distributed to the list candidates in order.
Single Member Districts: the voters have to write the name of the candidate in the ballot.
JAPAN: 47 PREFECTURES & 289 districts
This is the map of Japan and its 47 prefectures:
HOKKAIDO — 12 seats
In Japan's northernmost island of Hokkaido, the main opposition party of the country, the CDP, looks to solidify its presence in the prefecture building on the traditional support the center-left parties have found here.
Both sides currently split their seats in half
5 LDP seats
1 Komeito seat
6 CDP seats
The CDP is on the offensive, looking to snatch 2 or 3 seats from the LDP, thanks to the complete unification of candidates it has achieved with the Communist Party, which in the last days chose to retire their representatives in some of the most competitive districts. At the same time though the CDP has to hold on to two open seats produced by veteran incumbents that chose to retire (one of them, 6区, is especially vulnerable for local circumstances I think, and might produce an LDP pickup on election night).
Komeito holds a district in Hokkaido's western coast (Hokkaido District 10区) but it’s probably the party’s weakest SMD incumbent in the whole country. In 2017 Komeito's Inatsu Hisashi held the seat by only 513 votes (!). There’ll be a rematch in 2021 against CDP Kamiya Hiroshi. Pure tossup.
The possible final results are plentiful, but these might be some of the main scenarios for the CDP:
Winning 9/12 seats: holding its 6 seats + winning 2 districts where the JCP has unified behind the CDP candidates + dislodging the 1 Komeito incumbent.
7/12: holding only 5 of 6 seats + 2 unified districts.
5/12: + not picking up any seats + losing the controversial 6区.
AOMORI — 3 seats
In the northern prefecture of Aomori, the LDP will try to keep its three seats:
3 LDP seats
From Aomori District 2区 in the east (Pacific sea), the current chairman of the House of Representatives Oshima Tadamori is retiring after 12 terms in office. A member of the LDP, he had held the leading post in the chamber since 2015. This one is the most conservative district of the three and we can’t expect changes here.
However, the other two districts could be competitive although not in the main scenario:
The other two districts, in the center and the west of Aomori, might eventually be competitive. In fact, in 2017 neither of the LDP incumbents from these two (Aomori District 1区 & Aomori District 3区) took more than 50% of the vote. However, the Opposition has not unified candidates in two of them
AKITA — 3 seats
In Akita Prefecture, the LDP looks to hold on to its three districts, a situation repeated since 2009. However, despite the strength of the party, the three districts might be eventually competitive:
3 LDP seats
On paper, none of the districts is overwhelmingly safe for the LDP. In fact, in two of them (1区 & 2区) the LDP incumbent won reelection in 2017 with less than 50% of the vote.
District 1区: After a hiatus in 2017, Terata Manabu, heir to a historical political family in Akita, returns to challenge the LDP incumbent in Akita City (center of the prefecture), to take back a seat he last held in 2009. In 2017 incumbent Togasi Hiroyuki won reelection with only 47% of the vote
District 2区: In northern Akita, LDPer Kaneda Katsuyoshi seeks a fifth term in a rematch versus CDP Midorikawa Takashi, who this time, unlike 2017, will be the lone Opposition candidate. What happened then? Well, Kaneda won 46% against 54% combined between Modorikawa and a communist candidate. Without a JCP member in the race, it explains why it might be competitive this time.
All the district candidates have been unified between the CDP and the JCP. That’s a reason it should not be a big surprise if they manage to pick up at least one seat, even though they probably are not in the first line of clearly winnable seats, mainly because of the strength of the LDP in the prefecture (in the proportional vote it took 38.2% in HoR17 & 44.5% in HoC19).
The first polls show the Opposition stronger than expected here.
IWATE — 3 seats
A rare Opposition-friendly prefecture1, it was in the HoC19 one of the only 4 prefectures in Japan where the Opposition parties bested the government coalition (46.8% vs 42%). In fact, it’s fertile ground for the CDP which holds two of its three seats:
1 LDP seats
2 CDP seats
These two districts have never been held by the LDP.
We shouldn’t expect changes in the composition of the prefecture, in spite of the existing enmity between the two CDP incumbents, who have been fighting over a question of party funds for months already: Shina Takeshi in Iwate District 1区 (central district covering Morioka City) & Ozawa Ichiro, a former LDP Shadow Shogun who after leaving the party years ago became a central figure in Opposition politics, from Iwate District 3区 to the Southwest.
In Iwate District 2区, PM Kishida’s new Minister of Finance, Suzuki Shunichi, will seek a 10th term in office.
YAMAGATA — 3 seats
Lately, Yamagata Prefecture has been giving the Opposition some sweet victories, like the race for Governor in January who saw Yoshimura Reiko overwhelmingly reelected or the race in 2019 for the Upper House that saw an Opposition-linked independent bring down an LDP incumbent. In 2021, we’ll see if that late power can be translated to the Lower House of the Diet too.
3 LDP seats
In the last weeks, the Opposition parties unified candidates, giving a district to each party: the CDP, JCP and the DPFP. On paper, analysts think that the LDP should be able to keep all of them. However, much will depend on the presence of Governor Yoshimura in the campaign, and she’s already signaled she will publicly support “non-LDP” candidates in each district. Might that be enough to close the gap?
I’d probably keep an eye on Yamagata District 2区 (southwest) in a match between LDP incumbent Suzuki Norikazu and DPFP candidate Kato Kenichi:
In the last three elections, Suzuki won with only 51% (2017), 49% (2014) & 46% (2012) of the vote.
MIYAGI — 6 districts
In Miyagi prefecture, the Opposition parties are looking to pick up one or two seats, in the urban area of Sendai.
5 LDP seats
1 CDP seata
In Miyagi District 1区 there will be a rematch between LDPer Doi Tooru and CDP candidate Okamoto Akiko, who lost in 2017 by 10 points. This time she’ll benefit from being the lone center-left candidate in the race. However, the presence of a candidate from Ishin no Kai (Shundo Sayaka) makes the race unpredictable.
The other pickup opportunity is more straightforward I think for the Constitutional DemcoraticParty of Japan. In Miyagi District 2区 CDP Kamata Sayuri seeks a rematch, after losing in 2017 by only 1316 votes (49.7%-50.3%) against LDP incumbent Akiba Kenya.
If the CDP manages to pick up any of these two seats, they should be happy; counting that they hold Azumi Jun’s seat in Miyagi District 5区, which everyone expects him to do, given the experience of Azumi representing this picturesque coastal area of Miyagi since the district was created in 1996 as well as his stature in the party.
FUKUSHIMA — 5 districts
When the votes are counted, Fukushima might be the only prefecture in the region of Tohoku, besides Iwate, where the Opposition controls a majority of seats in the delegation:
3 LDP seats
2 CDP seats
In 2021, the CDP is targeting one district: Fukushima District 4区 in the western part of the prefecture (located in Aizu-Wakamatsu). This year, the Opposition has unified behind Oguma Shinji, who won the seat in 2014 to lose it in 2017 by only 1206 votes. In that year, there were competing JCP and SDPJ candidates, which allowed LDPer Kanke Ichiro to win.
This year, it’s a straight match between both CDP-LDP candidates.
After long negotiations, CDP and JCP agreed to drop candidates from each party, which leaves a map in which all the districts have been unified for hand-to-hand battles between the LDP and the Opposition. However, we should not expect further changes here, I think.
IBARAKI — 7 districts
The political situation of Ibaraki resembles that of Fukushima, which provides ample chances of picking up seats for the Opposition that might even give them control of the delegation in a prefecture where the Government coalition is very strong.
6 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
In the 2019 Upper House election, the latest national election held in Japan, the government coalition took 54% of the vote (LDP 39% & Komeito 15%) for only 35% for the Opposition parties, the lowest number east of Toyama prefecture.
Besides holding the seat of Nakamura Kishiro, a known maverick and a former member of the LDP (just like Ozawa Ichiro from Iwate who’s become a central figure in the fight versus the LDP), the Opposition could pick up other 3 seats from the LDP. Let’s see them:
In 2017 LDP newcomer Kunimitsu Ayano won Ibaraki District 6区 by only 5833 votes. This time, without a JCP candidate in the race (who in 2017 took more than enough to make up the difference), Aoyama Yamato seeks a straight match against Kunimitsu, to bring her down.
Ibaraki District 1区 also brings, finally, a straight race against an LDP incumbent: first elected in 2012, LDP member Tadokoro Yoshinori seeks a 4th term against Fukushima Nobuyuki, a former member of the defunct Democratic Party who’s running this time as an independent「無所属」, but liked still to the Opposition. We’ll have to keep an eye on the vote transfer for the JCP, with no candidate this year, to Fukushima, whose votes he needs to win a seat he held only in 2009-2012.
In spite of the LDP-tilt of Ibaraki, there’s a third district where the Opposition has a chance:
Tamaki Yuichiro, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, is betting on the Ibaraki District Five to pick up a seat in an election that will be difficult for them. A few days ago, the JCP confirmed they wouldn’t cooperate with the DFP and eliminate their candidate. Thus DPFP Asano Satoshi will try to bring down LDP incumbent Ishiakwa Akimasa on its own (against whom he lost by 5352 votes in 2017) with a JCP candidate also in the race (the JCP candidate in 2017 took 10k votes).
TOCHIGI — 5 districts
In spite of a similar political profile to Ibaraki and Gunma (as right-leaning prefectures at the edges and exurbs of Tokyo, Saitama and Chiba) the Opposition sees a chance to advance in neither Tochigi nor Gunma (next).
4 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
Fukuda Akio will seek a 3rd term in the rural west of Tochigi, including the famous place of Nikko, in Tochigi District 2区.
GUNMA — 5 districts
In the 2019 Upper House Election, the Opposition parties won here the highest share of the vote (39%) among the prefectures of Ibaraki and Tochigi. However, it’s here in Gunma where they lack representation and they see difficult to see a suitable district to pick up.
It’s a prefecture with a long history of LDP politicians. Check out the slate of LDP candidates, which is certainly interesting:
In all but one district, the LDP candidates in 2017 took more than 55% of the vote. That leaves Gunma District 1区 to the north, in Maebashi City, as a possible target even though it’s the communist party the one with a candidate (Tanahashi Tetsuko). In 2017, its newcomer incumbent Omi Asako won with 48%. Now, another legacy politician Nakasone Yasutaka (grandson of PM Nakasone) seeks a term in office to replace her party colleague ere.
5 LDP seats
SAITAMA --15 districts
Located north of Tokyo, and part of its suburbs, Saitama presents a great opportunity for the Opposition parties to pick up seats and maybe even quadruple their current number thanks to a very advanced unification process.
It’s also the home turf of Edano Yukio, the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, who has represented Saitama District 5区 since 2000, and is putting special emphasis on campaigning there.
13 LDP seats
2 CDP seats
Even though the unification is not complete, in the tossup districts where change may happen it has been achieved (loosely translated as those where the LDP candidate has recently won with less than 50% of the vote). At the end of the night, the CDP might end up with 8 seats (from 2).
On its part, the Democratic Party for the People is fighting for two seats, with Saitama District 4区 especially on its sight (the other one is Saitama District 14区)
The problem in both is that there’re JCP candidates with which the parties have not unified. It’s not clear though how strong the transfer of vote from the JCP to the DPFP would have been. Furthermore, an independent linked to the Opposition, Onozuka Masatoshi, has a chance to unseat veteran Shibayama Masahiko in Saitama District 8区. It won’t be easy though. Both have been battling in the district since 2009, the only time Onozuka won it.
In the 2019 Upper House Election, this was the partisan split:
Government coalition 46%
Opposition 43% (CDP 21%)
CHIBA — 13 districts
In comparison to the other four urban areas of Tokyo, Saitama and Kanagawa, Chiba is the one that leans more towards the LDP and the weakest for the Opposition parties: 50.5% for the Government to 39.8% of the Opposition parties.
Currently, the CDP holds a lonely seat, Chiba District 4区 by former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko. In 2021, the party seeks to grow that number to perhaps four or five, as I show in the map below. The chances grew last week once Reiwa Shinseugnimo dropped some of its candidates. In fact, of all the competitive districts have been unified except Chiba District 1区.
12 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
The Opposition, mainly the CDP, is looking for a sizable increase in seats in a prefecture where for several elections already the LDP has enjoyed almost universal control.
KANAGAWA — 18 DISTRICTS
Plentiful are the opportunities for the Opposition and the CDP to snatch seats away from the LDP, in a prefecture where heavyweights from the LDP have their seats like former PM Suga (Kanagawa District 2区), Kono Taro (Kanagawa District 15区) or new LDP Secretary-General Amari Akira (Kanagawa District 13区)
The CDP is ready, thanks to the unification of candidates, to almost double its seats, for example in districts like Kanagawa District 14区, where CDP Nagatomo Yoshihiro is challenging LDP 4-term incumbent Akama Jiro, who was reelected in the last three elections with less than 47% of the vote.
12 LDP seats
1 Independent seat
5 CDP seats
YAMANASHI — 2 districts
In the prefecture of Yamanashi, neither of the seats enjoy strong incumbents so they could go either way.
1 LDP seat
1 CDP seat
TOKYO — 25 districts
With its 25 seats, Tokyo is going to be one of the main electoral prizes of the election night, with a lot of competitive districts.
The unification of candidates plus the strength of the opposition here, in Japan’s main urban area, could allow the CDP to triple its seats from 4 to 12.
21 LDP seats
4 CDP seats
We expect one of the marquee races in Tokyo District 8区 between LDP Ishihara Nobuteru and CDP Yoshida Harumi, who in the last minute became the sole, unified opposition candidate. This district of Tokyo resembles others in western Tokyo where LDP incumbents have been winning for years without (or barely) crossing the 50% of the voting line, thanks solely to the division of the opposition. This time, in 2021, the unification of candidates is almost complete.
Another case in point is Tokyo District 19区, where the CDP candidate Suematsu Yoshinori has a great pick-up opportunity against a weak LDP incumbent like Matsumoto Youhei, who in the last two races barely won 40%.
These are the kind of seats the CDP needs to win in 2021.
NIIGATA — 6 districts
In Niigata, the snow country prefecture where the LDP and the CDP divide equally the number of seats, it appears that the CDP is on the offense and could pick up some seats.
Niigata is a specially strong prefecture for the CDP, it won 20% in the 2019 election for the Upper House.
3 LDP seats
3 CDP seats
NAGANO — 5 districts
Nagano is one of the four Opposition-leaning prefectures of Japan (at least, when they won in the 2019 HoC election with 49% of the vote). As such, the CDP is on the offense, as it looks to win even 4 out of 5 seats. In the holdout district the LDP faces a candidate from the communist party.
ISHIKAWA — 3 districts
In spite of the conservative tilt of Ishikawa, there’s a real battle in Ishikawa Disrcti 3区:
3 LDP seats
Kondo Kazuya is challenging LDP member Nishida Shouji, who took the seat in 207 with only 49% of the vote.
TOYAMA — 3 districts
We can’t see changes in Toyama and its three very LDP-leaning prefectures.
3 LDP seats
It’s going to be interesting what share of the vote Ishin no Kai can win here. Toyama has been in the last years the party’s best prefecture outside of the Kansai region (14.5% in the 2019 HoC Election).
FUKUI — 2 districts
In a prefecture as conservative as Fukui, we shouldn’t expect changes in the composition of these two seats even though the Opposition has unified behind CDP candidates in both districts.
2 LDP seats
Even so, despite old information that recently resurfaced about the LDP MP from the westernmost district of Fukui. And it’s not pretty…
GIFU — 5 districts
A priori, the LDP should be able to hold all 5 districts in Gifu. However, Gifu District 4区 in the rural part of the prefecture Kaneko Shunpei, who was first elected in 2017 might be vulnerable, given she won the seat, succeeding her father, with barely 49% of the vote. This year the Opposition has coalesced behind Imai Masato as a single candidate.
4 LDP seats
SHIZUOKA — 8 districts
Before the general election, there is a special election in Shizuoka Prefecture for the Upper House, which the latest polls show to be competitive even though the Opposition has not unified behind a single candidate.
If the LDP candidate came to lose, it could change the race here and increase the number of competitive seats.
6 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
1 Independent LDP-linked
AICHI — 15 districts
Aichi prefecture, and the city of Nagoya, is one of the big battlegrounds of 2021.
A historically favorable prefecture for the Opposition and the old Democratic Party, the CDP is looking at ample opportunities.
Take the case of Aichi District 8区
8 LDP seats
4 CDP seats
2 DPFP seats
1 Independent Opposition-linked
MIE — 4 districts
In Mie, perfect division of seats between the LDP and the CDP.
2 CDP seats
2 LDP seats
SHIGA — 4 districts
In Shiga, the Opposition parties should have been competitive in all districts, and they’re looking at picking up 1 or 2, including Shiga District 1区 between DPFP candidate Saito Areks and the conservative incumbent Oooka Toshitaka, who won in 2017 with 47% of the vote.
4 LDP seats
KYOTO — 6 districts
Thanks to the retirement of two LDP incumbents, the Opposition parties have a great chance of taking control of the delegation from Kyoto, doubling their number of seats from 2 to 4:
4 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
1 DPFP seat
Two Opposition heavyweights are favored to win reelection: in the northeast of Kyoto City, DPFP Maehara (Kyoto District 2区) & to the southwest, CDP Azumi Kenta from Kyoto District 3区.
Then the two big opportunities:
In the southernmost district of Kyoto, which includes the beautiful city of Uji, the retirement of LDP Ando Hiroshi leaves the door open for CDP to take back a seat he had held from 2003 until 2017 (when he lost it by only 1639 votes) in Kyoto District 6区.
The other pick-up opportunity is special, as I covered in a Twitter thread: Kyoto District 1区 in central Kyoto could be won by a member of the Japanese Communist Party.
It’d be a monumental result for the party, but it’s an uphill climb. Even though Kokuta Kenji, the JCP candidate is the lone Opposition candidate in the race, it’s difficult to see the totality of Opposition supporters throwing their support behind a man from the JCP, in enough numbers to win an SMD. It’s nonetheless one of the marquee races of the day.
OSAKA — 19 districts
Ishin no Kai’s foundational ground and its kingdom, the party seeks to kneecap the Liberal Democratic Party, after months of bad electoral results in local races for the party of Prime Minister Kishida. The LDP is in real danger of ending up really damaged as several districts are pure tossups which Ishin no Kai, strengthened since 2017, could flip.
9 LDP seats
4 Komeito seats
3 Ishin no Kai seats
2 CDP seats
1 anti-NHK seat
Ishin no Kai wants to extend its dominance in southern Osaka winning two seats: first taking back Osaka District 19区, which they won in 2017 but whose representative the yhad to expel last year over controversial remarks he, Maruyama Hodaka made about war with Russia. Then Osaka District 15区 (seen as a white spot in the South) after the retirement of LDP incumbent Takemoto Naokazu, infamous former IT Minister who didn’t have computer skills (or computer even).
Besides those two open seats, Ishin no Kai has plenty of LDP incumbents on its sight, ready to bring them down. PM Kishida’s party is indeed in a perilous position in Osaka, after years of dominance of Ishin, and this election will be the first chance of Ishin no Kai, consolidated already, to battle for at least half of the seats.
The incumbents from Komeito, in working-class areas of Osaka, and from the CDP in the well-off suburbs near Kyoto, are probably safe in their seats.
NARA — 3 districts
Even though the Opposition parties had struggled for months to accommodate their candidates in Nara District 1区, in the end, the Communist Party will leave the road clean for CDP Mabuchi Sumio, a veteran of Opposition politics and a member of the DP government in the early 2010s, to take back a district he had held continuously since 2003 until 2017, when he lost it by only 2476 votes.
2 LDP seats
1 Independent (former LDP) seat
The other two districts are probably safe for its incumbents in the conservative Nara Plain, including Tanose Taido in Nara District 3区 expulsed from the LDP last year. What are the odds that, if he’s reelected, he’s allowed back into the party after the election? 80%? 90%?
HYOGO — 12 districts
In spite of the growing presence of Ishin no Kai in Hyogo, influenced by Osaka nearby, the LDP and Komeito maintain a monopoly of representation here.
Both Ishin no Kai and the Opposition parties look to pick up at least a single seat from Hyogo, especially in the urban area of Kobe and its suburbs at the border with Osaka.
10 LDP seats
2 Komeito seats
At the heart of Kob3, in Hyogo District 1区 the CDP has a chance to win its first seat ever in Hyogo. Isaka Nobihiko wants to take back a seat he last held from 2014 to 2017 as part of the old Ishin party. He faces the LDP incumbent Moriyama Masahito and Ishin no Kai Ichitani Yuuichiro (furthermore, there’re several independent candidates that could play the role of a spoiler). It’s a wild district where no candidate has even won more than 50% of the vote.
To the East of Kobe, at the Osaka border, in Hyogo District 6区 the CDP has got an even more clear chance of winning, I think. A seat that was held by the current Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike from 1996 to 2003, CDP Sakurai Shuu will try to bring down LDP Ogushi Masahiko, the 3-term incumbent. It won’t be easy.
The Opposition parties, and the CDP, have no easy race either in Hyogo or in Osaka. It’s hostile land but good coordination of candidates might provide fruitful (in small quantity though).
WAKAYAMA — 3 districts
Wakayama is one of the most LDP-friendly prefectures of Japan, and the last real stronghold of the party in the region of Kansai. In one of the seats, in the rural south of Wakayama District 3区, the now-former LDP Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro will seek a 13th term in office.😮
2 LDP seats
1 DPFP seat
The small DPFP seeks to mantain its seat located in Wakayama City by Kishimoto Shuuhei, who’s held Wakayama District 1区 since 2009.
TOTTORI — 2 districts
One of the top Government-leaning prefectures of Japan, the LDP should easily hold onto its two seats in Tottori, one of them held by Ishiba Shigeru (Tottori District 1区), who supported Kono Taro in the race for LDP president last month.
2 LDP seats
SHIMANE — 2 districts
We find the same situation in Shimane, a neighboring prefecture that is even more favorable to the LDP and the government.
2 LDP seats
OKAYAMA — 5 districts
Since 2009, no candidate belonging to the Opposition has been able to win a single district in Okayama. However, two of its districts in the south might eventually be competitive even though they’re probably not in the first line of ripe opportunities.
5 LDP seats
In Okayama District 2区, Tsumura Keisuke, who already held the seat between 2005 and 2009, will try to get it back from the current LDP incumbent Yamashita Takashi. In 2017, Yamashita won with 51% of the vote.
The second competitive seat is Okayama District 4区. Hashimoto Gaku, from the LDP, seeks a 4th term in a district that was previously held by his father, former PM Hashimoto (1996-98). It’s a straight rematch against CDP Yunoki Michiyoshi.
The main reason these two seats might be competitive is that both CDP candidates do not have to contend with other opposition candidates, after unifying behind them.
HIROSHIMA — 7 districts
This year, Hiroshima prefecture, the home of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is set to become an important electoral battleground, with two districts the Constitutional Democratic Party could pick up on election night.
In the western border of the prefecture, Hiroshima District 2区 became at the last minute a one-on-one race between the member of the LDP Hiraguchi Hiroshi and CDP Ooi Akai, after the Communist Party retired its candidate. It isn’t an easy race despite Hiraguchi being reelected with only 48% in 2017.
6 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
The real race everyone is paying attention to is found in Hiroshima District 3区, a vacant seat after its previous member from the LDP, Kawai Katsuyiki, was involved in her wife’s corruption and vote-buying scandal, after which she, Kawai Anri, resigned too from her post in the Upper House. This recent scandal threatens a seat the LDP had held since 2012. Finally, the LDP won’t have a candidate, allowing Komeito, after a long internal struggle, to run a candidate here instead.
It’s a race between Komeito Saito Tetsuo versus CDP Rian Mayumi.
YAMAGUCHI — 4 districts
In the election of 2019 (for the Upper House), Yamaguchi was the top prefecture for the government coalition, where they won 66% of the vote, with the LDP winning over half of the vote by itself. These numbers show the strength of the party and its four incumbents in the prefecture, which, by the way, include former Prime minister Shinzo Abe and his brother and current Minister Defense Kishi Nobuo.
4 LDP seats
Even though the Opposition parties have unified behind a single candidates in all the districts, it’s difficult to see them making any advance here.
TOKUSHIMA — 2 districts
In Tokushima, the Liberal Democratic Party seeks to reelect its incumbents for another term.
2 LDP seats
Marginally, Tokushima District 1区 in Tokushima city could be competitive between the LDP incumbent Gotoda Masazumi and an independent linked to the Opposition who’s challenging him, Niki Hirobumi (who lost to Gotoda in the last two elections).
KAGAWA — 3 districts
On election night we should pay attention to the race in Kawaga District 1区, once again. We can expect it to be a close battle for a second time in a row between a young CDP politician and a veteran of Kagawa politics.
Kagawa is also the prefecture the leader of the DPFP Tamaki Yuichiro represents, in Kagawa District 2区, who shouldn’t have a problem winning a 5th term in office.
2 LDP seats
1 DPFP seat
KOCHI — 2 districts
In Kochi we are likely looking at stability. However, the first polls point to the possible weakness of the CDP incumbent Hirota Hajime, who was reelected rather easily his first election in 2017 in Kochi District 2区
EHIME — 4 districts
Few changes are possible in Ehime Prefecture in 2021, polls say.
3 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
FUKUOKA — 10 districts
The most populated prefecture of the island of Kyushu, it went all red in 2017. Now in 2021, the Opposition parties have unified in competitive districts to give a chance to the CDP candidates.
Indeed, we are looking at a range of 1 or 4 pick-ups for them.
For example, Fukuoka District 2区
Or, Fukuoka District 10区 in Kitakyushu city:
These are the most straightforward cases, but there are other opportunities.
10 LDP seats
OITA — 3 districts
Oita is a very interesting prefecture, where the Opposition has been historically powerful, thanks to the strength of the old socialist party and now the social-democrats.
All three districts are susceptible of changing hands in favor of the Opposition.
3 LDP seats
MIYAZAKI — 3 districts
We are probably not looking at changes, in normal circumstances, in Miyazaki. It’s true though that the LDP member from Miyazaki District 1区 might be vulnerable.
3 LDP seats
KAGOSHIMA — 4 districts
We’ve almost arrived at the end.
In Kagoshima, the CDP is defending one seat in Kagoshima city (Kagoshima District 1区) and playing offense in a straight race against LDPer Ozato Yasuhiro in Kagoshima District 3区 with Noma Takeshi, who held the seat since 2012.
3 LDP seats
1 CDP seat
Pay attention too to Kagoshima District 2区 where former independent Governor Mitazono is making the LDP incumbent Kaneko Masuo sweat.
SAGA — 2 districts
Saga must be one of the most interesting prefectures for the whole country. Conservative and LDP-leaning (43% in the 2019 HoC election), its two districts are held by members of the CDP and both are favored for reelection in 2021.
2 CDP seats
These two seats are part of the only 3 the party currently enjoys on the island of Kyushu. Edano’s party is looking however in 2021 to increase its presence in other prefectures.
NAGASAKI — 4 districts
In a conservative land as Nagasaki, the DPFP has an uphill climb in trying to hold the lone opposition seat here. In 2017 Nishioka Hideko won Nagasaki District 1区 by 10k votes in spite of the presence of a JCP candidate, a similar situation this year. The leader of the party Tamaki Yuichiro has already hit the ground for her.
The other LDP districts appear safe, even though initial polls point to some weakness. It’d be shocking result to see.
3 LDP seats
1 DPFP sat
KUMAMOTO — 4 seats
Kumamoto is the more stable prefecture of Kyushu. No non-LDP candidate has won a district here since 2009. Can we expect changes? Difficult to say.
4 LDP seats
OKINAWA — 4 districts
At last, Okinawa, which is Japan’s most Opposition-friendly prefecture. In the 2019 election for the Upper House, the Opposition parties took 51% for only 40% of the Opposition, which includes a weak LDP (26%). This year, the Opposition parties seek to maintain their dominance, even though different events and negative election results have shaken the alliance under which the Opposition unifies there: “All Okinawa”「オール沖縄」.
Each f the main opposition parties holds a seat in Okinawa:
1 CDP seat
1 JCP seat
1 SDPJ seat
1 LDP seat
In the election thread I started in September, I presented the four districts. Check them out:
Okinawa District 1区 is special
Okinawa District 2区 is an open seat which the Social Democratic Party wants to retain, as the lone district held by the party in the whole country.
Okinawa District 3区 held by the CDP
The first polls about the election are being published and they show a very fluid situation:
The CDP and the Opposition, in general, are competitive in enough districts to scare the LDP, and threaten its majority of 233 seats in the Diet: It’s amazing that the LDP losing its simple majority in the Lower House has become not a worst-case scenario but a very possible one!
Exciting days ahead.
Don’t forget to follow the election with me on Twiter @NihonPolitics in this thread:
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In the 2019 House of Councillors Election, the sum of the Opposition parties (CDP, DPFP, JCP, SDP & Reiwa) only surpassed the government coalition in four prefectures: Hokkaido, Iwate, Nagano & Okinawa