I am back! (Plus the 2024 Tokyo Gubernatorial Election)
After several years, I'm back writing the NihonPolitics newsletter with news and analysis about Japan and its politics
Friends,
It's difficult to believe, but just looking at the front page of my newsletter, I realized that it has been almost three years (OMG) since I stopped writing new posts.
A lot has changed and happened in my life that led me to take a break. Since then, I have tried to steer my student and professional life in new directions. Finally, this summer of 2024, I feel I have reached a point where I can take writing the newsletter seriously, with a commitment to delivering regular, accurate, and interesting information for all of you. Yay.
It's crazy to think that we now have almost 600 subscribers to the NihonPolitics Newsletter and over 8,000 followers (9k latest update) on my Twitter account. I still can't fathom what we have achieved. THANK YOU SO MUCH TO ALL OF YOU
Recently, I was in Japan for a family trip. It was my third time there, and I loved Tokyo as much as the first time. I even had the opportunity to observe the electoral campaign for the past Tokyo Governor Election.
It's precisely about the Tokyo Governor Election that I'd like to talk a little about in this welcome back post. It was a significant race, and there's a lot to discuss.
Stay tuned for detailed analyses and updates on the candidates, their platforms, and what this election means for Tokyo and Japan as a whole.
Thank you once again for your continued support. I'm excited to embark on this journey with you all over again!!!
2024 Tokyo Governor Race Results
If you have been following me on Twitter, you know that this past Sunday, July 7th, Tokyo went to the polls to elect their new governor in what were arguably the most important elections in Japan this year (unless PM Kishida decides to dissolve the House of Representatives by the fall...).
As always, the race attracted a lot of national attention, as Tokyo is Japan’s capital and economic engine, with more than 11 million voters called to the polls.
A few headlines:
Yuriko Koike secured her re-election with a significant margin, emphasizing that she was not unpopular enough to lose the race (an incumbent Governor of Tokyo has never lost a re-election race).
Renho, the opposition candidate, underperformed significantly, not being able to coalesce even the left-wing vote.
Ishimaru, the upstart candidate, captured a very noteworthy share of the vote, jumping to second place and shocking Tokyo with a wonderful performance that might lead the young man from Hiroshima to higher paths in his political career.
Other smaller candidates, including those considered jokes, did not even reach 3% between the dozens of them. Good.
The election turnout was higher than expected, reaching 60%! Great news for Japanese democracy when we see a high turnout.
Now, I’d like to dive into an analysis of each candidate their finals results and their geographical strength.
Let’s go to the post👇
Yuriko Koike (71): four more years for the Empress
On Sunday, Yuriko Koike, the two-term governor of Tokyo, was easily re-elected for a third term as governor of Japan's most populous prefecture, cementing her legacy as Japan’s most important female politician in history.
It was a weakened performance in comparison to her thumping victory in 2020 that reverted back to her first victory in 2016. Nevertheless, her popularity and the lack of a single, attractive alternative will allow her to lead Tokyo for four more years.
Yuriko Koike1, extremely popular among women and young families, earned a wide range of support that ranged from the LDP and Komeito, who had supported her externally (Komeito's vote machine has been essential from the beginning for Koike’s political success), to voters on the left from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and even the Japanese Communist Party.
An incumbent governor of Tokyo has never lost a re-election race. And Koike was not unpopular enough to lose. That’s an easy analysis we can make.
During the campaign, Koike made efforts to localize the race by distancing herself from the support of the LDP, which has been embroiled in corruption scandals affecting both the party and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for months. While she relied on the votes of LDP supporters, she was careful not to be perceived as too closely aligned with them. It worked.
Yuriko Koike: 2,918,015（42.8%）
A first simple map of her results shows how she did best in the rural areas of western Tokyo where she once again managed to cross the 60% vote share threshold. These are the most conservative areas of the prefecture, as expected.
Yuriko Koike's 5 Best Districts:
奥多摩町 (Okutama Town): 68.03%
檜原村 (Hinohara Village): 61.43%
瑞穂町 (Mizuho Town): 55.90%
日の出町 (Hinode Town): 55.48%
青梅市 (Ome City): 51.91%
This green color gradient doesn't capture the nuances of the result, so I created a new map for better clarity.
Now we can better appreciate her results. We see that she dipped BELOW 50% in many wards in central Tokyo. Particularly striking is the result in Shibuya, where she barely reached 36%. Yuriko Koike's 5 worst districts were in traditionally center-left leaning areas of Tokyo, where she didn’t even manage to exceed 40%.
Yuriko Koike's 5 Worst Districts:
渋谷区 (Shibuya Ward): 35.11%
目黒区 (Meguro Ward): 36.43%
杉並区 (Suginami Ward): 37.77%
中野区 (Nakano Ward): 38.49%
三鷹市 (Mitaka City): 39.23%
After her exceptional results in 2020, I thought it would be interesting to create a map to see where Koike’s vote share declined the most compared to that election. Surprisingly, I found that her sharpest drops were in traditionally more conservative areas, such as the outer wards of Edogawa and Katsushika in eastern Tokyo, which have sizable Komeito supporters, while her support was sutained better in those cities where she did worse this time around.
In spite of a 60% turnout (5 points higher than in 2020), Yuriko Koike suffered a significant decrease in her share of the vote. While a drop was anticipated, the magnitude was larger than expected. Ultimately, she secured just 42.8% of the vote, which is even lower than the 44% she garnered in 2016. This decline could be attributed to a combination of factors: a drop in support from LDP/Komeito supporters (possibly due to the perceived certainty of the race), and a shift of voters, particularly young and male, to Ishimaru Shinji.
As a result, Koike lost 743,356 votes compared to 2020, despite the increased turnout. This is not exactly a popular endorsement of her administration (it's true, though, that her 2020 figures were exceptionally high, with the second most votes ever received in a Tokyo gubernatorial election, so a decline was expected). The 2020 election, which took place amid the COVID-19 pandemic, saw Koike gain a lot of popularity (and even national name-recognition) for spearheading the fight against the disease.
An eye-opening outcome, indeed…
Ishimaru Shinji (41): the young mayor stuns Tokyo
Ishimaru Shinji emerged as the sensation of the race, rising from his role as a one-term mayor of Akitakata city in Hiroshima. His outspoken statements about local government issues propelled him to national prominence last year. His bold stance against city council members who opposed his reforms established him as a dynamic young leader challenging entrenched interests, which significantly expanded his social media following among young supporters.
His presence of social media has been seen as key to his ultimate success in Tokyo.
Ishimaru Shinji ran a surprisingly strong race. I have to acknowledge I didn’t see it coming. With 1,658,363 votes (24.3%), he certainly caught the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan by surprise and probably exceeded his own expectations.
Quite a lot had been unwritten about the relationship between Ishimaru Shinji and Ishin no Kai before the election. When he decided to run for Governor, Ishimaru lacked a strong base supported by a party. Ishimaru and his party were close to a deal to cooperate with Ishin no Kai in the election, but ultimately, It fell through as their interests were not completely aligned. Nevertheless, I wanted to investigate if there's any correlation between his support and the votes Ishin no Kai received in the last Lower House election in 2021.
Among the 23 special wards of Tokyo, the correlation appears positive (0.5), suggesting that Ishin no Kai voters, lacking a candidate, largely supported Ishimaru. This provided an essential foundation for the young mayor, although it wasn't solely responsible for his impressive results, which surpassed 1.6 million votes (while Ishin no Kai received around 800,000 votes in the last Lower House election in 2021).
Therefore, we need to look elsewhere to account for Ishimaru’s votes to achieve such a historic result.
The question now is, what’s next for Ishimaru? He appears to be looking for his next target. On the same night of the election, he hinted at a possible challenge against PM Kishida in his district of Hiroshima 1 (downtown Hiroshima). Good luck with that, though. In the last election for the lower House in 2021, Kishida, the man himself, secured 80% of the vote…
Renho (56): fails to deliver high expectations
It was a lengthy process before the Japanese opposition decided to support Renho, an experienced member of the Upper House of the Japanese Diet (Parliament) before she entered the race by surprise. She was likely the best available option for the left to make a significant challenge in the Tokyo governor race, a prefecture where they hold relevant support (as an urban region) in national elections but have recently struggled to achieve strong results in gubernatorial races.
Renho is highly popular among the base of the Japanese Communist Party, the Social Democrats, and the left wing of her own Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ). She is a formidable politician. Her historic achievement of winning the highest share of votes and the most votes ever recorded in Tokyo's at-large district in the Upper House during her reelection in 2010 underscores her substantial support base in Tokyo.
However, her campaign bombed. In a big way.
I certainly misread that race. I remember talking in the weeks before with some friends on Twitter, and we thought it was a 10-points race. In fact, leaked polls showed that the race started that way, close. But then something happened in mid-campaign and things went south. It was an epic failure.
During my trip to Tokyo, I visited a rally for Renho in front of Ikebukuro Station, the area Yuriko Koike herself used to represent in the Lower House years ago. It was big, raucous, and exciting despite the heavy rain. Renho ran a very spirited campaign: she managed big rallies and the leadership of her party, as well as those from the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democrats, were excited.
However, in Tokyo, you don’t win elections pandering (only) to the left. You need independent, floating voters, a lot of whom exist in Tokyo. According to exit polls, Renho ended up losing them even to Ishimaru Shinji, after Koike
In the end, Renho only received 18.8% and 1,283,262 votes.
As expected, Renho's campaign put up its best numbers in the core leftist areas of Tokyo, starting with the cities of Musashino, Mitaka, and Suginami Ward. However, in those three places, she even placed third behind Shinji! It was a very bad night. Perhaps, the expectations were too high…
Nobody, certainly not me, thought that Renho could win this race against Koike. I did expect it to be more competitive, even though Ishimaru Shinji’s entry into the race certainly did eat into the CDPJ’s base of young professionals in western Tokyo and wards like Shibuya or Meguro. Could the opposition have done better without Renho? I don’t think so. She was probably the best they could offer, against both Koike and a newcomer like Ishimaru.
Her 1.2 million votes are even fewer than the 1.5 million votes won, combined, in 2020 by Utsunomiya Kenji and Yamamoto Taro (the leader of Reiwa Shinsengumi)2 who did not get involved in this race, and whose supporters scattered between Renho and Ishimaru, among others.
As expected, Renho improved over Utsunomiya Kenji of 2020, the candidate from the core left. It wasn't too difficult after his abysmal result that year. Nevertheless, a closer look at a comparative map shows how Renho absolutely failed to substantially increase her support in central Tokyo to just a few percentage points (over what was already a very low baseline). Renho did manage to grow the vote in rural western Tokyo, though.
For comparison’s sake:
2020 Utsunomiya Kenji: 844,151（13.8%）
2024 Renho: 1,283,262（18.8%）
A comparison map made by the Sankei Shinbun shows how Renho only won in 7 cities of the Tokyo Prefecture (without counting the islands) while placing third behind Ishimaru Shinji in the rest of them. The difference, as seen previously, was stark in the more LDP-leaning wards of central Tokyo, like Chuo (Ginza); Chiyoda (Imperial Palace) or Minato (Tokyo Tower).
The vote coalitions of both Ishiamru Shinji and Koike overlapped but wehre different, as this mal made by the Mainichi Shinbun shows.
So, where did Renho and Ishiamru garner their votes? Together, they secured 43.1% of the vote, edging out Koike who received 42.85%. This amounted to 23,610 more votes than Koike. A heatmap illustrates that the combined vote share of Renho and Ishiamru was particularly strong in areas traditionally aligned with the opposition and with large numbers of independent voters.
In two places, they even managed to hit 50% (combined): Setagaya Ward and Musashino City.
There is certainly a lot to discuss in the future about Ishimaru Shinji’s base of support and the way he achieved those fantastic results. Nevertheless, I think we can infer that Ishimaru (and Renho, of course) was likely supported by a significant number of opposition and independent floating voters, whereas LDP supporters only marginally leaned towards Ishimaru. For example, exit polls indicate how Ishimaru managed to surpass Renho among voters critical of the government and the LDP's financial issues, as depicted on the map—a cohort of voters that Renho should have been able to coalesce around her candidacy.
In the end, it appears that the anti-LDP, non-Koike coalition Renho attempted to build at the outset of her campaign ended up splitting between herself and Ishimaru Shinji. Ishimaru's relative obscurity, social-media-savvy campaign, and focus on an economic message gave him the upper hand. In contrast, Renho's campaign, which her critics say was largely negative, focused on criticizing incumbent governor Koike, only resonated with a minority of the electorate, which wasn't enough to unseat her.
Tamogami Toshio(75): former Japan Air Force Chief of Staff
After a strong showing in 2014, when the nationalist candidate managed to secure 610,865 votes (12.55%), this time around he absolutely failed, achieving a meager result of 267,699 votes (3.9%).
Tamagomi managed to break 4% in all but four of the 23 special wards of central Tokyo (Katsushika, Adachi, Nerima, and Setagaya). His best results were in Minato (5%) and Chiyoda (4.98%), traditional LDP-leaning strongholds in downtown Tokyo.
The lack of an LDP candidate was not enough to lift up Tamogami, who couldn't find neither breathing space in the camapign nor traction in a polarized race between Koike (who received the support of the LDP) and the anti-Koike candidates, split between Renho (on the left) and Ishimaru (in the center). According to some exit polls, not even a tenth of LDP supporters cast ballots for Tamogami.
What about the special elections for Tokyo’s Metropolitan Assembly?
On Sunday, some voters in Tokyo had a second ballot to vote in several special elections due to vacancies in 9 districts for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. More than the gubernatorial race itself, where Koike was a heavy favorite, analysts saw these races as a better barometer of the national mood since the LDP had candidates in 8 of those 9 races, some of them against Japan's second-largest party, the CDPJ.
In the end, the LDP had a bad night, while Koike’s own local party, "Tomin First," ended triumphant.
Let's take a closer look at how the night unfolded:
Koto Ward: Both the LDP and the JCP had candidates in the district which came just months after the CDPJ won a special election here (Tokyo-15) for the Lower Houseof the Diet in April. In the end, an independent candidate, critical of Governor Kike, Sanohe Aya won the race.
Shinagawa Ward: Independent Shinohara Rika, a former staffer of the current Ward Mayor, won the election by 3,000 votes against both an LDP and a CDPJ candidate. In this district, Renho underperformed the CDPJ candidate by about 2,000 votes...
Nakano Ward: A marquee race of the night, it concluded with Araki Chiara, a close aide to Governor Koike, easily reclaiming her seat after she resigned in 2020, defeating both an LDP and Communist candidate.
Kita Ward: In this district, another member of Koike’s Tomin First won, marking the second of three victories they would ultimately achieve last Sunday. Komazaki Miki easily surpassed both a Communist Party and an LDP candidate.
Itabashi Ward: Here, the LDP won one of the two districts they managed to take on Sunday night. Remember that the LDP had incumbents in EVERY ONE of the districts that went to the polls...
Here, Takeuchi Ai, the candidate from the Japanese Communist Party, outperformed Renho by about 13,000 votes. A very impressive feat for a member of the JCP.
Adachi Ward: A Komeito stronghold, the special election race in the Metropolitan Assembly pitted the only direct LDP vs CDPJ contest of the night, and it ended with a narrow victory for Ginkawa Yuiko, the CDPJ candidate (a popular politician who had placed first in the last election for the Adachi local assembly).
Renho, the opposition candidate for governor, underperformed Ginkawa by... wait for it... 90 thousand votes! To be honest, this has to be seen as more of an overperformance by Ginkawa.
Hachioji City: It was the most painful defeat for the LDP of the entire night. Hachioji is a stronghold for Komeito and a populous city in the west of Tokyo that typically provides a substantial number of votes for the LDP in every election. It's also the fiefdom of Hagiuda Koichi, the chief of the Tokyo LDP, a controversial figure linked to the Unification Church, and involved in a slush-fund scandal that has plagued the LDP over the past year.
Their candidate suffered a decisive loss against Takita Yasuhiko, who is affiliated with the opposition and Governor Koike.
Fuchu City: Here, the LDP managed to snatch its second and final win of the night against two independent candidates.
Minami-Tama: This district is formed by two different cities, Tama and Inagi, in southwest Tokyo. Tomin First won their third district of the night against the CPJ, marking a painful loss for Japan's second-largest party in what ultimately was a very tough night.
Since these races occurred on the same day as the gubernatorial election, I created a chart3 comparing the votes for Tomin First or CDPJ candidates against those of Koike and Renho. It’s very clarifying.
It leads to some conclusions:
As a candidate for Governor, Renho barely outperformed candidates from the CDPJ/JCP in its districts; in fact, she underperformed in four of them.
Renho underperformed a candidate from her party, CDPJ, in Shinagawa, Adachi, and Minamitama; in Itabashi, she underperformed a Communist candidate.
As a candidate for Governor, Yuriko Koike outperformed her candidates for the assembly in all four districts (among the 6 analyzed).
It shows how weak of a candidate Renho was, barely improving (or directly underperforming) compared to generic candidates from the Constitutional Democratic Party or the Japanese Communist Party. She likely reached the left’s ceiling in Tokyo, failing to capture votes beyond that core support.
That way, is imposible to win an election in Tokyo today…
CONCLUSION
After all these years, I am glad to be back on my newsletter, writing posts about Japan and its politics. The recent Tokyo gubernatorial election was a fantastic occasion to restart this endeavor now that I have the time and the motivation to commit to something like this.
As always, thank you so much for reading. GET READY FOR MORE.
Regarding the election itself, I don't think it will allow us to learn much about the state of Japanese politics today. Nobody emerged very happy from the contest. Only Koike, re-elected for a third term on her own, can be pleased with the result.
The LDP might be satisfied that it avoided a humiliating defeat by supporting Koike behind the scenes, but their results in the special elections for the Metropolitan Assembly continue to paint a bleak picture for the party in a historically unpopular situation.
For the opposition, the results are worse. Renho failed to deliver on her campaign promise to challenge Koike one-on-one, and her brand might be fatally damaged. Now, the question is whether she'll try to return to her old post in the upper house (through a special election in 2025 concurrent with the seats up for grabs that year) or switch to the lower house, searching for a district around Shibuya or her hometown of Meguro.
Certainly, besides Koike, Ishimaru Shinji is the only other person happy with these results. They were extraordinary and lend credence to the idea that he might have something promising for the near future, even though he'll need more than a personal brand and social media to make it work.
Twitter: @Nihonpolitics
Substack Newsletter:
Just before this election, I finished reading the single most important biography ever written about Koike: “The Empress” by Ishii Takeo, where she paints a pretty negative view of Koike. Nevertheless, as I said on Twitter, the book left me deeply unsatisfied. I was not able to muster a coherent opinion about Yurkik oKoiek, She’s is personally mysterious, ambitious. Ruthless. Liar. Hard-working. Cunning. 100% recommended reading
In this comparison, I am not including the results of Yamamoto Taro, who received more than half a million votes back in 2020. Renho's results this year were 5.7% lower and 218,166 fewer votes than the combined total of Tsunomiya and Yamamoto Taro in 2020.
Of the 9 special elections, only 6 featured either a Constitutional Democratic candidate or one from Tomin First.
Thank you for the excellent insight.