An Election With No Winners (When Reality Defies Expectations)
Analysis of the results of the 2021 Tokyo Assembly Election
“It was an Election with No Winners”「勝者ぬき選挙」That’s is how the Japanese media is accurately describing the election that took place last Sunday for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. It was an exciting night to live, even from afar.
It was an election widely seen as a preliminary fight before the general election that is set to take place in the fall. In the end, nobody seemed satisfied with the results they had. There are though a few conclusions to extract from it, but a lot of cards were left on the table, opening a volatile scenario just months before the 49th Election to the Lower House of the Diet.
Hello and welcome to the NIHONPOLITICS newsletter, a newsletter about Japan and Japanese politics I started just a few months ago. During this time, I have been able to slowly grow the audience of the newsletter. I’m so grateful.
Last Sunday was a very important night for me: it was the biggest election I have covered yet and it paved the way for future coverage of other elections and events in Japan, despite not being able of being in Japan to do it. Since then, the growth of followers both on Twitter (@NihonPolitics) and in the newsletter has been tremendous. THANK YOU.
You can read the two previous I wrote here about this election: 1 & 2
Today I bring a piece about the election and its results. I hope you like it.
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Let’s go into the analysis of the results of the main 6 political parties which won seats on Sunday: No party or coalition managed to get a majority in the 127-seat Assembly.
LDP「自民党」
After four years in the wilderness, the LDP reclaimed the title of the first party of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, but it was a pyrrhic victory that hides worrying numbers for the conservative party in Tokyo, a prefecture where the party has been slowly declining, in a limited way, in comparison to the results it had 20 years ago. Nevertheless, the situation of the LDP in Tokyo is stable, but the results it had last Sunday, were some of the worst in the party’s history pointing to a deteriorating position that worries the leadership of the party under the unpopularity of Prime minister Suga in Japan’s largest city.
On Sunday the LDP won 33 seats, 10 more than 2017. In general, the party won barely over 1 million votes (1.192.796) and only 25.7% of the vote. Bad numbers.
Over the weeks, the LDP had built an expectation that pushed them towards winning from 50 to 60 seats, benefiting from a forewarned, supposed, “collapse of Tomin First”:
The predicted but not materialized collapse theory rested on the idea that: a) the surge of Tomin First seats won in 2017 was built on shallow ground, b) the popularity of her leader Governor Koike, overwhelmingly re-elected last year, would not be enough.
That collapse didn’t happen. And the LDP was left with 33 seats, the second-worst result ever in the party’s history in Tokyo. I wholeheartedly agree with this thread by the great Corey Wallace (these results do not necessarily reflect what will happen in the future general election), but at the same time, I think we should not forget that these results are just another piece in a disastrous year1 for the LDP.
It appears that the last-minute appearance of Governor Koike on the stump after a full week hospitalized for “severe fatigue” in support of some of her party’s candidates changed the game to the LDP, who was confident on winning big until last Saturday.
The results from last Sunday show a continuous decline since 2001 in both the number of total votes and the share of the vote the party has been winning:
The party increased +3.16 points but it lost 67.305 votes (!) to its worst numeral result.
There is no reason to celebrate at the party HQ, despite the improvement in the number of seats which was bound to happen as much as Tomin First fell.
The unpopularity of Prime minister Suga in Tokyo likely played a role in bringing down many of the LDP candidates that already saw themselves winning. In general, the LDP appears to have a problem in the election for the Tokyo Assembly: the decline has been steady, from 1.8 million votes to barely 1.2
It’s certainly a paradox to see the LDP winning seats while losing votes. But that’s exactly what happened.
In the following gif I made, you can see the different seats the party has been winning in the last three elections. Enjoy!
Shocking to see the LDP winning fewer seats than 2009, in the DPJ wave. Checking the result, we find that the improvement was marginal, with some shocking results that we should not disregard:
It was left with only 1 seat in Ota Ward one of the most populated wards of Tokyo (8 seats).
It lost its seat in Bunkyo Ward (2 seats).
It only took back one Single-member seat (Chuo) for a total of 2 (Tokyo Islands) out of 7. Tomin First held its ground in the SMDs of Tokyo while the Opposition picked up two. See it below:
I wouldn’t fall for a spin of the LDP results as remotely acceptable…
Tomin First 「都民ファースト」
Electoral analysis and polls had been forecasting a steep decline in the number of seats for Tomin First after the wave in 2017. However, in the last week of the race, when the campaign *officially* started, the polls picked up something different: the party was at 15% of the vote, if not higher.
At first, the widespread impression was that the party might even fall below 10 seats, from the 47 they won in 2017. As the campaign advanced though, the mood changed, in spite of the lack of Yuriko Koike in the campaign, who was hospitalized for severe fatigue. The campaign of Tomin First, which looked upbeat in the last days, reached it its climax on Saturday when Governor Koike stamped for some of its candidates on the ground. It was the last push they needed.
When the polls were open and the votes counted, such predicted collapse *did not* materialize. The part did lose votes, seats, and share of the vote; however, in comparison with what it could have been, the results have not been seen as a disaster. Indeed, they were bracing themselves for it:
It lost 24 seats to 31 (from 55)
It lost a lot of votes: 849.251, almost 45% of all they won in 2017 (!!)
It decreased 11.4 points (from 32.7% to 22.3%)
With these numbers, it’s amazing how they have managed to spin their defeat into something sort of acceptable. Why? Because they (and all of us, to be frank) were betting on something much, much worse. 😬
In the chart above, you can see the different results for five elections where either the party or Koike were involved. It traces the history of the centrist movement she launched in 2016, which started as an offshoot of the LDP and has become a full-fledged regional party in Tokyo which is set to live for another four years:
2016 Tokyo Governor Election: Koike leaves the LDP and becomes the first female governor of Tokyo and the 7th in Japan’s history.
2017 Tokyo Assembly Election: Koike wave delivers the worst result ever for the LDP
2017 House of Representatives Election: Disappointing result for Koike’s new Party of Hope
2020 Tokyo Governor Election: Yuriko Koike is reelected in a new wave election
2021 Tokyo Assembly Election: Koike’s Tomin First survives the destruction
Last Sunday, Tomin first clung on seats in a lot of districts. They were especially meaningful for those with less than 3 seats, like Chiyoda Ward or Ome City, where the LDP is strong but could not bring down Koike’s footprint. In larger districts, naturally, the steep descend in vote brought down a lot of incumbents. Tomin First only managed to maintain its full representation (2 seats out of 7) in Nerima Ward, Yuriko Koike’s home.
In the gif below, you can see their presence thin out:
With 312 seats won, Tomin is left close behind the LDP which won 33. I don’t know if they would like to attempt it, but there are several members that were previously part of Tomin, who in 2021 ran and won as independents and might be tempted to come back to the fold and give Tomin the first position in the Assembly (or tie at 33 seats)🤔:
Morisawa Kyouko in Shinagawa Ward: 22,413 votes (15.8%)
Ueda Reiko in Edogawa Ward: 27,509 votes (12.8%）
Koyama Kunihio in Fuchu City: 41,037 votes (51.5%）
KOMEITO「公明党」
Komeito arrived at the election with all the alarm lights flashing: the COVID pandemic had damaged the outreach operations made by the party, and behind them by Soka Gakkai (publicly thanked by the party leadership😉 for its efforts) the Buddhist cult that forms the backbone of the party, to turnout and mobilizes voters. As the election day arrived, party members and even the official newspaper yelled desperate cries of help, warning about the “real risk”, they assured, of losing seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly for the first time since 2001. Let’s remember that Komeito has managed to maintain *23*seats in every election since then!
Several incumbents from Wards like Meguro, Toshima or Nakano had to receive the late push from party leader Yamaguchi Natsuo (who, by the way, represents Tokyo in the Upper House) with mass rallies on the election night. In 2017, Komeito had been in alliance with Tomin First, Koike’s group. In 2021, the part returned to the fold with the LDP.
In the end, in a vote count that stretched into the night, Komeito managed to push all its candidates across the finish line!
For the eighth election in a row, Komeito won 23 seats in the Tokyo Assembly: 17 incumbents & 6 new candidates.
That stability is reflected in the gif below, which shows few changes in the party’s composition in the Assembly since 2013: in 2017 (continued in 2021) the party won a seat in Kita-Tama 3 「北多摩３」with a previous incumbent from Setagaya named 中嶋義雄, a ward that’s been left with a lone Komeito representative after this exchange of constituencies took place 4 years ago. No more changes in the last three years.
The steadiness in the number of seats masks a slow but continuous decline in the last decades though:
Since 2017, the party lost 103.887 votes & 0.45 points (14% of its total vote)
The 630.810 votes won in 2021 is the lowest number since at least 2001
Holding on 233 seats, just like the LDP winning 10 more, risks obscuring us from a deeper analysis that does not reflect a rosy picture of Komeito4. Check out the chart below:
The decline in both *share of the vote* and *total votes* was widespread for Komeito around Tokyo, with special significance in places like:
Setagaya Ward with a reduction of 10.008 votes and a 23.7%
Kita Ward, with 6.921 fewer votes and a cut of 20%
In the end, maintaining ts 23 seats can be seen as a relief for Komeito. The more than 100k vote was lost to compensate for a fantastic operation that left the party for the eighth election in a row with the same strength in the Assembly. If Komeito had lost seats, falling even below 20 as some polls predicted, it could have provoked an open crisis within the party, which is already one thin line with problems of mobilization and an aged membership.
JCP「共産党」
In 2013, the Japanese Communist Party became the main opposition party in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly. In 2017, with the collapse of the Democrats, it consolidated that position which in 2021 the party sought and was able to maintain. Without explicit coordination with the new Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan but with an obvious tacit agreement, the JCP held on its 19 seats, a very good result.
Since 2017 the JCP lost 0.26 points and 143.565 votes.
In the last two decades, the trajectory of the JCP is close to that of Komeito’s, in terms of the decline in the number of votes and in the share of the vote won since 2001: The decline in the number of votes since then has not damaged the party’s capabilities of winning seats in the Assembly; to the contrary, the 19 seats won in 2021 are the best result since 1997 when the party won an impressive won 26 seats (!).
After the election wave of the DP of 2009 that left the communist with 8 seats (for 54 of the Democrats), their subsequent collapse allowed the JCP to consolidate a space in the left as the main Opposition party to the LDP and Komeito, building incumbency among its members.
In 2021, the JCP's main strength was found again among the Tokyo wards, where it collected some impressive victories.
The JCP won two new seats, one in Hino City and the other in Bunkyo Ward, which were two of the most shocking5 results of the night (in both places, the LDP incumbent lost allowing the JCP and Tomin to capture the seats). On the same night though, its incumbent Hoshimi Teiko lost her seat by only six (6) votes in Meguro to a new CDPJ candidate! At the same time, the lack of coordination with the CDPJ left them without a seat in Kita-Tama 3, a winnable one.
Historically, the JCP has followed a similar trajectory to that of Komeito, specifically in terms of votes, whose decline has not resulted in a reduction in seats thanks to the organization both parties「組織」have on the ground: They get out the vote and they do it very efficiently, surgically targeting the seats they want to win.
As you can see in the chart above, the JCP follows a very stable line of votes (in a slight decline) along with Komeito while other parties fluctuate. For the third election in a row, the party was left at the border of 14% of the vote.
By the way, 14 of its 19 winners are women, becoming the party with the most women members in the Assembly! ♀️♀️
CDP「立憲民主党」
2021 was the first year when the Constitutional Democratic of Japan had candidates to the Tokyo Assembly, as the party had not been created in time for the election of 2017. In fact, the party group in the Assembly had been formed until this election with former members of the disappeared DP, whose disastrous results in 2017 allowed the CDP this year to boast about being the lone party to grow and to increase the number of votes and the share of the vote. In spite of the lower turnout:
The CDP won 187.334 more votes than the DP did in 2017.
It won 10 seats, to 15 (up from 5).
Its share of the vote increased to 12.34% (+5.44 points).
After the limited results of the DP in 2017, the CDP managed to expand to areas where the party belongs, in the progressive lands to the west of Shinjuku, like:
It won two seats in Setagaya Ward, one of them a newcomer.
It took the lone seat from Musashino City, Tokyo’s most Opposition-friendly city, for the first time since 2009.
It won the top seat in Shibuya Ward, coalescing the Opposition vote here.
It won a seat in a competitive city like Hachioji (what leaves the Opposition with 2 out of 5 seats there).
The historical results though are difficult to analyze for two reasons: a) The CDPJ did not exist prior to 2021 (in terms of the Tokyo Assembly Election, and b) the DPJ wave of 2009 was so big that it distorts a coherent analysis of the party and its successor, creating since then an evident decline.
However, despite being the lone party that increased the number of votes, there was no celebration atmosphere among the CDPJ supporters. In the end, It won 15 seats, four behind the Japanese Communist Party. They really believed they could reach at least 20 seats this time or at least equal the results from 2013 (when it won 15 seats too but 117.537 more votes).
Analyzing the results, there were arguably two places where possible CDPJ seats were left on the table because of a lack of coordination with the JCP6:
Minami-Tama, where the incumbent Saito Reina (who had won as part of Tomin First in 2017) split the vote with a JCP candidate.
Nishi Tokyo, where Ishige Shigeru did not win a 5th term after a JCP candidate spoiled a race he should have won handily.
One of the main conclusions of the night was that the JCP and the CDP need to reinforce their coordination and cooperation: it has to be complete and thorough as they cannot afford to lose what are likely wins.
ISHIN NO KAI「維新の会」
For the second election in a row, Ishin no Kai was left with winning only 1 seat, once again in Ota Ward, its stronghold in Tokyo Prefecture. The history of the party is young. It started in 2013 when the party won two seats:
Ishikawa Ryouichi in Minami-Tama
Yanagase Hirofumi in Ota Ward
While Ishikawa has been reelected in both 2017 and 2021 as part, now, of Tomin First, Yanagase won again in 2017 and his seat was replaced this year by Matsuda Ryusuke: Matsuda who received the support of all the party heavyweights placed second in大田区 and won 29,701 votes (11.4%), an increase of 8.241 over Yanagase’s result four years ago. Very good.
Ishin Kai has found a niche of support in Ota Ward that allows it to win a seat very comfortably. However, that’s proven to be difficult to replicate anywhere else.
In comparison to national elections, the party suffers from strepitous declines when it comes to the regional races to the Assembly of Tokyo. Let’s see:
2013 election: 374.109 (8.25%)
2017 election: 54.016 (0.97%)
2021 election: 165.850 (3.57%)
After the good showing in the 2019 House of Councillors Election (the last national election to take place) when the party closed in on the 10% of the vote mark, it was a severe disappointment for them not to win more than 1 seat beyond Ota Ward.
The party ultimately failed in a seat they had in their sights in Kita-Ward. Why?
Kita Ward is the home ground of Otokita Shun, a young rising star from the party. First elected in 2013 to the Assembly and reelected in 2017 as part of Tomin First, he left the party and the assembly to become in 2019 member of Ishin no Kai in the Hosue of Councillors.
They expected to ride his coattails to victory but they fell short with Sato Kouto despite running a spirited campaign. See the historical results of Ihsin no Kia and ts candidates in Kita Ward here:
2013 Tokyo Assembly—Otokita Shun results (Minna no To): 13,296 votes (11.1%)
2017 Tokyo Assembly—Otokita Shun results (Tomin): 56,376 votes (35.5%)
2019 HoC Otokita Shun results (Ishin): 26.687 votes (17%)
2019 HoC Ishin party results: 10.001 votes (9%)
2020 Tokyo Assembly (Special Election)—Sato results (Ishin): 33.903 votes (23.3%)
2021 Tokyo Assembly Sato results (Ishin): 23.323 votes (17.7%)
Not even the visit of the leadership of Ishin no Kai from Osaka like Governor Yoshimura Hirofumi & Osaka Mayor Matsui Ichiro was enough.
With these numbers achieved in Kita, Ishin no Kai would win a set in any other district. The problem for them is that Kita Ward only has 3 seats: 1 for the JCP which unites the Opposition, another for the LDP and the third one, closely fought, for Komeito.
SEIKTASU NETWORK「生活・ネットワーク」
Seikatsu Network, a centrist and feminist political regional party from Tokyo, arrived at the election with the clear goal of increasing the number of seats it achieved in 2017: only 1. That year, it entered into an alliance with Tmin Fist that did not work. In fact, despite the high turnout of the 2017 election, SN:
It lost 24.310 votes and 0.83 points (26% of the vote).
Its seats were reduced from 3 to 1
In 2021, the party allied itself with the Constitutional Democratic Party, in what’s a natural alliance of two progressive parties with an ample base in the center-left heartland of Tokyo. The party targeted the three traditional places where it had seats before 2017:
Setagaya Ward
Suginami Ward
Kitama-Tama 2
In the end, the party failed to increase the number of seats, beyond Kita-Tama 2, the party’s original land. The cities of Kokubunji and Kunitachi, which form the district of Kita-Tama 2, are at the origin of this grassroots party:
In Kita-Tama 2, Iwanage Yasuya easily held onto the seat Yamauchi Reiko had held previously. In fact, she improved over her in 3032 more votes (+8.5 points) despite the lower turnout.
In Setagaya Ward, Sekiguchi Eriko was short 2965 from the last candidate that won (LDP). For the Opposition, taking 4 seats in the 8-seat Setagaya Ward is doable, the last time it happened was in 2009. However, there can be no spoiler candidates and this year there were from Reiwa & the DPFP.
In Suginami Ward, Komatsu Hisako fell short by 6236 votes. It was not close. Suginami is another favorable ward for the Opposition, where winning 3 out of 6 seats should be doable. However, in 2021 there was another candidate from Reiwa, too.
In 2021, SN barely improved its share of the vote, stuck at 1.5% and continued losing votes: 8.859 votes since 2017. Not auspicious.
TURNOUT in the 2021 Tokyo Assembly Election「投票率」
In the election, last Sunday, general turnout plunged by almost 9 points to 42.4%, the second-lowest turnout ever in an election for the Tokyo Assembly.
In the map below, you can see turnout by each city and ward. The best turnout was seen in Bunkyo Ward (48.7%) & Musashino City (47.6%)
On the other end, the lowest turnout was found in Minato Ward (33.8%) and in the rural district of Nishi-Tima (35.8%) ⬇️
During the last weeks, I had several districts on my radar. Let’s see now how they played out:
Chiyoda Ward (1 seat)🟢 Constituents: 52,921 Turnout: 44.19%
The results from Chiyoda, which were very early on projected by the Asahi Shinbun, were extremely disappointing for the LDP and exciting for Tomin First. Chiyoda plays an important role for both parties.
The LDP failed on taking back a seat they lost in 2017. Its candidate, Uchida Naoyuki is the son-in-law of a former LDP boss that represented Chiyoda for decades until 2013; nevertheless, that name recognition was not enough. At all. In fact, Uchida lost 316 votes in comparison to the 2017 LDP candidate!
Tomin First showed its strength in the heart of Tokyo winning 37% of the vote in Chiyoda Ward. Taira, its candidate, was an incumbent that had won in 2017 in Itabashi Ward, not in Chiyoda. However, He succeeded here Higuchi Takaki, who left his seat in 2020 to run for and win the race for Mayor of the ward! That result already showed cracks in the LDP’s grip on Chiyoda, and they materialized on Sunday.
Minato Ward (2 seats)🔴🟢 Constituents: 199.689 Turnout: 33.78%
In a district that had the possibilities of shaping up to be competitive, in the end, it was not. Both incumbents, from the LDP and Tomin First were rather easily reelected in Minato (Roppongi Hills, Shinagawa etc).
In 2-seat districts like this, the presence of separate Opposition candidates makes winning impossible, however, unification might have not been enough here. In comparison to 2017:
Kanno Kouichi (LDP): he gained +3.691 votes and 10 points
Irie Nobuko (Tomin): she lost a lot of votes, more than 17k and 14 points after her large victory in 2017
The CDP & JCP failed candidates also lost votes and share of the vote in comparison to 2017 (the JCP candidates were different).
Minato Ward was of the few districts with less than 3 seats where the Opposition failed to win a seat…
Shinjuku Ward (4 seats)🟣☸️🟢🔴 Constituents: 269.909 Turnout: 41.89%
In Shinjuku, all the political parties held onto the seats they had won in 2017, despite the good fight put up by the CDP candidate Mikumo Takamasa who did not win a seat by 917 behind an LDP newcomer.
On top, the longest-tenured member of the Tokyo Assembly, the irreducible communist Oyama Tomoko who won her 8th term! In comparison to 2017, she lost 4.859 votes:
Kojou Masao (Komeito) won a second term, losing just 949 votes in an 8 point lower turnout.
Moriguchi Tsukasa (Tomin) survived a brutal drop of 26.412 votes and 18.7 points!
The LDP maintains its seat with a new candidate, Yoshizumi Haruo, who surpassed the party’s veteran incumbent Akita Ichiro by 2435 votes.
It was doable, but a difficult feat to achieve. The last time two different opposition parties won a seat each in 4-seat Shinjuku was in 2009.
Bunkyo Ward (2 seats)🟣🟢 Constituents: 180.945 Turnout: 48.66%
In Bunkyo, (one of my favorite wards of Tokyo!) we had one of the biggest upsets of the night. The final result was simply jaw-dropping.
The three candidates running were a rematch of 2017, when the LDP and Tomin First won a seat each. In 2021, the Communist Party won back a seat they had lost in 2013 leaving the LDP without representation here:
Fukute Yuko (JCP), who ran a phenomenal campaign, became the top vote-getter and won 4033 more votes than in 2017 (+8 points despite a 78 lower turnout). Damn, What an impressive candidate. 💪
Masuko Hiroki (Tomin), who received the enthusiastic support of the Rengo Union, held onto his seat easily, despite losing 12.108 votes & 9 points. Masuko had previously been part of the Democratic Party.
The loss of Nagaya Fumitaka was a shock all over the place. A 4-term incumbent, he only lost 1900 votes and even increase the share of the vote by one point. It wasn’t enough.
Brutal result for the LDP in a district where the party doesn’t have much of a fallback support from Komeito to come to the rescue: in the 2019 Upper House election, Bunkyo was the LDP’s fourth-highest ward for the party’s contribution to the overall coalition vote share7. Check out the footnote to see what I mean.
Musashino City (1 seat)🔵 Constituents: 122.844 Turnout: 47.62%
Early on the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan had one of its most significant pickups of the night: Igarashi Eri, an inspiring candidate, easily won the sole seat to represent the city of Musashino, Tokyo’s most favorable city to the Opposition. It’s the first time since 2009 that an Opposition politician represents Musashino, a city in which they won in the last national election (2019 HoC) 51% of the vote.
The CDPJ seems to be tailor-made for these cities in western Tokyo, the progressive heartland of Japan.
The Tomin First incumbent Suzuki Kunikazu lost 12.764 votes, incapable of stopping the union of center-left voters behind Igarashi.
Koganei City (1 seat)🔵 Constituents: 102.093 Turnout: 41.26%
The Opposition parties had another of its great victories of the night in Koganei, a neighboring city to the west of Musashino, where they won almost 49% of the vote in the 2019 Upper House Election.
After failing to win in 2017 by only 2.508 votes, this time around Kando Akiko finally managed to win the sole seat from Koganei! An independent affiliated to the Green Pary and supported by all the Opposition parties, she won by double digits in a race that was thought to be tighter.
The Tomin First incumbent Tsujino Eisaku lost 50% of the vote and he was defeated rather easily. The LDP candidate Hirose Maki, who received the support of party heavyweights, even won raw votes: 2804 votes and grew 10 points.
Minami-Tama District (2 seats)🟢🔴 Constituents: 198.888 Turnout: 43.96%
In the district of Minami-Tama, formed by the cities of Tama and Inagi, a hard-fought battle took place, in one of the few places where the lack of coordination and unification of a single Opposition candidate left a winnable seat on the table, despite the presence of the two strong candidates that ended up winning.
Ishikawa Ryouchi, a former longer mayor of Inagi City, proved to be a strong incumbent from Tomin First (in 2013 he had won as part of Ishin no Kai) and won reelected for a third term losing only 36 votes.
From the LDP, veteran member Koiso Akira, who lost his seat in 2017m took it back in 2021 winning a sixth term. He increased in 1661 votes.
The Opposition parties ran two different candidates:
Saito Reina won the election in 2017 as part of Tomin First but changed parties to CDP
Uesugi Tadashi was the JCP candidate
Between both candidates, they had more than enough votes to pick up the two seats. However, their different candidatures divided the vote (as it was to be expected) leaving them without representation for the third election in a row.
Shinagawa Ward (4 seats)☸️👤🟣🔵 Constituents: 333.647 Turnout: 43.19%
For the second election in a row, the Liberal Democratic Party failed to win a single seat in the ward of Shinagawa, despite the possibilities being a 4-seat district provides. It is likely the LDP was betting here, like in many other districts, on a total collapse of Tomin First that would allow them to sneak in at least one of the two candidates it had in Shinagawa. But they failed miserably.
Shinagawa-Ku was of the bright results for the Opposition, which managed to win two out of four sets for the first time since 2009:
Shiraishi Tamio (JCP) was re-elected for a second term after losing 2624 votes but only 0.3 points
Abe Yumiko, from the CDPJ, won a seat after falling short in 2017, after winning 2475 more votes and growing 3.4 points.
Morisawa Kyoko was reelected this time as an independent after being part of Tomin First in 2017. We’ll see if she rejoins the group in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, she lost 9848 votes and 4 points.
Without much trouble, Komeito held on its seat with Ito Kouichi 2.996 votes and 0.4 points.
In the end, it was a surprising failure by the LDP to run two different candidates. In 2013, the party managed to win 2 out of 4 seats.
You can check all the races on the NHK website and the NHK Exit Polls too.
I have been following Japanese Politics for one year and a half, probably, and it’s been quite a ride. Last Sunday, it was the most exciting election I've ever experienced, even though I was not able to live it in situ, following the election in Japan (Fu** Off Covid!🥺).
There was a lot of expectation about what could happen:
While the Japanese political world entered into the night expecting a collapse of Tomin First and a powerful burst of support for the LDP, those feelings changed to dread for Komeito which was apparently on the cliff, about to lose seats for the first time since 2001. However, as the night advanced, we came to realize that the LDP was not having the night they had envisioned…
Never forget this kids: “Politics is an expectations game”
Next week, I intend to come back with a regular entry of the newsletter, including information about the vaccination process. By then, 30% of the Japanese population will have at least one dose! 💉
Thank you for reading this loooong piece. I hope it was helped you understand Japan and its politics. That’s the goal of my newsletter. To make Japanese politics accessible to anyone who doesn’t have the knowledge or confidence for doing it in Japanese.
If you liked it, you can help me continue at Ko-fi! 😊😊
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Even though Tomin First won 31 seats, they’re left with 30 already: Kinoshita Fumiko, who won a second term in Itabashi Ward (29,767 votes & 15.6%) was in the last hours kicked out of the party after she was caught in a traffic accident with her driving license suspended.
The votes won in 2021 are only 8350 fewer than in 2017. It may work as a consolation for the party, but it’s the second election where the total number of votes consolidates below 700k and 14% of the vote (in 2017 the party shot back to 734.697 votes).
Perhaps, the lost votes (and seats ) by the LDP, which were not expected prior to the election night, helped save Komeito incumbent across the board
Four JCP candidates were the top vote-getter in their districts, a feat: Hara Norikofor her second term in Kita-Tama 4, Oyama Tomoko for her eighth term in Shinjuku, newcomer Fukute Yuko in Bunkyo and Fujita Ryoko in her second term in Ota Ward. Only in the case of Shinjuku and Ota they were not the lone Opposition candidates present.
At the same time, there is a place where the presence of the CDP blocked the communists from winning a seat: Kita Tama 3, where Tanaka Tomoko failed after the CDPJ split the vote almost by half.
If we analyze the results of the LDP & Komeito coalition, the parties’ contribution changes by place. In Bunkyo Ward, in the 2019 House of Councillors election, the LDP won 34.8% and Komeito 6.1%: thus, the LDP’s contribution to the coalition share is of 85%, the fourth-highest among 東京特別区.
The LDP and conservative commentators cling to the LDP becoming once again the largest party in the Assembly as a reason for the LDP to be happy about the result. However, I do not think they can boast much. It’s just another difficult result for the party in ay ear full of them: Yamagata Governor race (loss), Chiba Governor race (loss), Hokkaido District 2 special election (no candidate), Nagano Upper House Special Election (loss), Hiroshima Special Election (loss), Shizuoka Governor race (loss), and now Tokyo.
Even though Tomin First won 31 seats, they’re left with 30 already: Kinoshita Fumiko, who won a second term in Itabashi Ward (29,767 votes & 15.6%) was in the last hours kicked out of the party after she was caught in a traffic accident with her driving license suspended.
Perhaps, the lost votes (and seats ) by the LDP, which were not expected prior to the election night, helped save Komeito incumbent across the board.
The votes won in 2021 are only 8350 fewer than in 2017. It may work as a consolation for the party, but it’s the second election where the total number of votes consolidates below 700k and 14% of the vote (in 2017 the party shot back to 734.697 votes).
Four JCP candidates were the top vote-getter in their districts, a feat: Hara Norikofor her second term in Kita-Tama 4, Oyama Tomoko for her eighth term in Shinjuku, newcomer Fukute Yuko in Bunkyo and Fujita Ryoko in her second term in Ota Ward. Only in the case of Shinjuku and Ota they were not the lone Opposition candidates present.
At the same time, there is a place where the presence of the CDP blocked the communists from winning a seat: Kita Tama 3, where Tanaka Tomoko failed after the CDPJ split the vote almost by half.
If we analyze the results of the LDP & Komeito coalition, the parties’ contribution changes by place. In Bunkyo Ward, in the 2019 House of Councillors election, the LDP won 34.8% and Komeito 6.1%: thus, the LDP’s contribution to the coalition share is of 85%, the fourth-highest among 東京特別区.