2021 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election: Part 1
Preview Part 1: Past results and the state of politics in Tokyo now!
Hello! Welcome to this special post in my NIHONPOLITICS newsletter about one of the most important elections of the year that will take place in just a few days in Japan: the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly on the 4th of July.
In order to help you navigate through this election, I have been working on two different pieces to be published just in time so you can know better the political situation of Tokyo and the importance of the coming election.
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This is the first of two posts about the election for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly「東京都議会選挙」. On the first one, I will preview the election and present the state of politics in Tokyo now, analyzing the results of the last national election that took place, the 2019 House of Councillors Election.
In the second post, which will be published in the coming days, I will present the keys to understanding the race and I will make a final prediction of the possible results (for fun!).
You can follow the election on my Twitter and in this thread:
On the Fourth of July of 2021, the election for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly「東京都議会」, the legislative body of the Tokyo Metropolis「東京都」, will take place.
In order to understand the race of 2021, I’d like to go back in time, just a little, to the two previous races for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly in 2013 and 2017. Both gave us radical changes in the composition of the Assembly. These swings, not uncommon, were caused by several reasons that we could find again in 2021.
The district structure of the Assembly, which changes according to the population, uses a 中選挙区制 system in which several members are elected in each district, excepting the 7 Single-Member Districts in existence.
The electoral system of First-Past-the-Post plus single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) allows for wild swings as the political parties form tacit alliances in the absence of a straight two-party system.
The timing of each election in a nationalized environment:
In 2009, it advanced the later wave of the DPJ which gave Japan the second Opposition government in the country’s post-war history.
In 2013, it was a ripple after the comeback of PM Abe the year before, following the demise of the DPJ.
In 2017, amid her national ambitions, it was the wave of Yuriko Koike.
Let’s analyze the election of 2013 & 2017 now.
Background: The Election of 2013 and the return of the LDP
In the wave election of 2009, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan lost control of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly for the first time in half a century. However, the short-lived Opposition government in Japan collapsed as quickly as it was built, allowing PM Abe to return triumphantly to the Kantei in the year 2012.
One year later, in 2013, the LDP, managed to become once again the largest party in Tokyo’s Assembly as the Democratic Party of Japan started an agonizing decline that bottomed out in 2017.
In 2013, the LDP & Komeito won 82 seats combined, gaining control of the Assembly with a majority of 18.
2013 Election Results (Comparison to 2009)
LDP 59 (+20)
Komeito 23 (=)
DPJ 15 (-28)
JCP 17 (+9)
Minna no Tou 7 (+6)
Seikatsu Network 3 (+1)
Ishin no Kai 2 (-1)
🔴The LDP’s comeback was extraordinary: all of its candidates, 59, won seats in the election. The party showed its strength once again in the Tokyo Wards, winning 39 out of 89 seats (43.8%) in them.
☸️Komeito, for the sixth election in a row, maintained 23 seats in the Assembly, 20 of them in the Tokyo Wards.
🔵With a loss of 28 seats, the Democratic Party was decimated. Overstretched after the 2009 wave, the party was overpassed by the Japanese Communist Party in the number of seats (two more) even though the DPJ won 74k more votes. Minshuto「民主党」 virtually disappeared from the Tokyo Wards, winning its few (15) seats in its strongholds to the west of central Tokyo: in fact, they only won 6 seats in the Wards. They were left without representation in two pivotal wards for the center-left opposition in Tokyo such as Setagaya and Suginami.
🟣On the other hand, the JCP benefited partially from the collapse of the DPJ, winning 9 seats more and creating a bedrock of seats, around 20, that they have maintained since. After 2017, when they increased their seats in one, 2021 will be the first time in more than a decade that the JCP has competition on the left by a bigger, established party like the CDPJ.
In opposition to the DPJ, the main support for the JCP is found within Tokyo wards where they won 15 of its 17 seats in 2013.
🟡2013 was the first year when another right-wing party had candidates for the Tokyo Assembly: it was Ishin no Kai, whose underwhelming presence since has confirmed the difficulty of winning seats under its electoral system and the existing districts. In that year, the party only managed to pick up 2 seats:
One seat in Ota Ward, where the party has found, since, a stable niche of support.
In Minami Tama District, with a former long-term mayor of Inagi City, Ishikawa Ryouichi「石川良一」, as its candidate.
Not surprisingly, in 2021 the party is expected to struggle to go beyond that, again.
Currently, the party has no incumbents. For instance, after 2017, Ishikawa is running now as part of Tomin First. Ishin no Kai does have a chance in Ota Ward to take back a seat there because it’s one of the most populated districts. A share of the vote around 9% or 10% leaves a lot of Ishin no Kai candidates on the line, not enough to win seats unless:
a) they are recognizable politicians,
b) they run in districts with lots of seats, where it’s relatively easy to sneak in a seat.
🟨Minna no Tou, the eclectic party that absorbed politicians left and right created in 2009, won 7 seats in 2013. Of them, three continue in the Assembly as part of the CDPJ & Tomin and two are now in the House of Councillors (from Ishin no Kai and the CDPJ).
👭The feminist Seiktsu Network Party won 3 seats, in Setagaya, Suginami and in the District 2 of Kita-Tama, formed by the cities of Kubunji and Kunitachi, the party’s stronghold and where they first won a seat in 1985.
In spite of the inflated majority formed by the LDP and Komeito, the rising criticism of then Prime minister Abe and the growing popularity of Governor Koike, caused a historical repudiation of the Liberal Democratic Party in Tokyo in 2017.
Background: The Election of 2017 and the Rise of Koike
If 2013 was the year of the LDP comeback, 2017 was the year of Yuriko Koike’s Wave that gave the worst result ever for the LDP
🟢In the year 2016, Yuriko Koike, a former Minister and a member of the Lower House in the Diet who represented Toshima Ward, left the LDP and ran for the governorship of Tokyo.
Her large victory created a political earthquake in Japan that led several members of the local LDP to form a new political group under her leadership called “Tokyoites First”「都民ファースト」for the election on the following year. The group ended up including politicians even from the Opposition, some of who jumped from the sinking ship of the Democratic Party「民進党」.
In the map below, you can see the share of the vote the Tomin First candidates won in each district in the last election (2017) to the Assembly. Their dominance was focused in western Tokyo where a lot of its incumbents are at risk now despite their powerful victories in 2017.
Propelled by the popularity of Koike, Tomin First ended up winning 55 seats, 39 of which were new candidates and 11 incumbents that had defected from other political parties.
The Tomin First wave essentially wiped out the LDP from central Tokyo: among the Tokyo wards with districts of fewer than 3 seats, the LDP only won in Minato (1), Bunkyo (1) & Sumida (1). It managed, though, to maintain some seats in districts with a lot of seats available, where the threshold for a seat is lower.
The gains of Tomin First did not only occur in central Tokyo. The party was especially dominant, as I said, in western Tokyo:
In the progressive heartland of Tokyo (west of Shibuya and Shinjuku), where it captured Opposition votes.
In the semirural areas at the feet of the Tama mountains.
This overstretched presence is set to be significantly reduced in 2021.
According to the polls, the decrease in the number of votes and share of the vote for Tomin First is already baked in, the question left is how much it collapses. It may make the difference especially in districts with 3 and 4 seats between a big victory by the LDP🔴 or a really good night for the Opposition:
For example, the case of Koto Ward (4 seats):
If we agree that the LDP, Komeito and JPC incumbents are favoured, we’re left with a fight for the fourth seat between the Tomin incumbent + another LDP candidate + and the CDPJ candidate. Depending on who wins we're left with three scenarios: big victory for the LDP taking 2 seats in Koto, Tomin survives, or the Opposition goes back to normal (winning 2 out of 4) after some difficult years.
Nevertheless, we should not underestimate the staying power of Tomin Frist. Perhaps, as polls are already showing they might not be as weak as it had been expected just months ago.
☸️In 2017 Komeito allied itself with Tomin First, after notoriously breaking up with the conservative LDP, in order to support the reformist agenda Governor Koike had proposed. And, for the fifth time in a row, it managed to hold on its 23 seats: The party has been winning 23 seats since the election of 2001. However, that stability is at risk now, in 2021.
🟣With 19 seats won, in 2017 the Japanese Communist Party became the Opposition’s main party in the Assembly and had its best result since 1997, when it had won 26 seats. Now, in 2021, the party seeks to maintain or even slightly increase the number of seats, even though it has competition on the side of the Opposition with the CDPJ.
In 2017, the party’s predecessor, the DPJ touched the bottom winning only 5 seats and losing close to half of the vote the Democratic Party🔵 had won in 2013. It was the end of an era.
It marked the final demise of the Democratic Party of Japan. Its presence in the Assembly was reduced to places with core support like Setagaya Ward or Mikata City. This time around, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is set to expand and it even could quadruple the number of seats they currently have.
👭In 2017, Seikatsu Network allied itself with Koike’s Tomin First. However, the alliance didn’t work out. In fact, they lost two of its three seats. In 2021, the party is cooperating with the CDPJ and it could crawl back to 2 or 3 seats in districts along the Tama river, its stronghold.
🟡 Ishin no Kai, which lost a lot of support in 2017 to Tomin First, wants to consolidate its presence as a national party with a decent footing in the Assembly of Tokyo. However, we cannot expect it to win more than one or two seats.
2017 Election Results: NHK Website
STATE OF POLITICS IN TOKYO: PARTY STRENGTH
Once, I have presented the previous two elections to the Toko Metropolitan Assembly, I would like to present now the last results of a national election, the 2019 House of Councillors Election, in order to understand the state of each political party in the prefecture of Tokyo and give you an idea of their strength in the territory.
LDP「自民党」
In 2019 (House of Councillors Election) the LDP won 32.6% and 1.878.316 votes in Tokyo Prefecture:
From 2014: An increase of +0.5% and 33.330 more votes.
In the map below, you can see the strength of the LDP by municipality in Tokyo:
The party only reached 40% of the vote in two wards, Chiyoda and Chuo, while in neighbouring Minato it won 39%: The Imperial Palace, Tokyo Station, Ginza, Roppongi and Kasumigaseki/Nagatacho are LDP land. The strength of the party also extends to the areas of Shitamachi like Taito & Sumida to the East; in the west towards Meguro & Setagaya. Here, the share of the vote is barely above 32%, the prefecture-wide average.
The party finds another pocket of support in the semirural and rural areas of western Tokyo, in towns deep in the mountains like Hinode or Okutama. In the rest of the prefecture, the LDP hovers around 30% or even below.
Even though the LDP and Komeito are coalition partners, there’s a significant negative correlation between both, as they cater to different electorates in Tokyo Prefecture: -0.304.
The difference in support can be clearly seen in the heat maps too.
KOMEITO「公明党」
In 2019 (House of Councillors Election), Komeito won 11.5% and 665.106 votes in Tokyo Prefecture:
From 2014: A decrease of -0.6% and 35.021 fewer votes.
Komeito, the Buddhist party, has two different pockets of support in Tokyo:
One is the working class belt of Adachi, Katsushika & Edogawa, the most humble wards of Tokyo located along the eastern border of Tokyo between the rivers Arakawa and Edogawa. The party has consisted managed to win between 15% and 17% of the vote there, a position which allows it to win a lot of seats in the Tokyo Assembly from these popular wards (the party now has 4 out of 15 seats in these three wards).
The other one is located on the curved border with Saitama Prefecture in the north: from the protuberance of Kiyose City to the semi-rural communities of the western edge. Here, Komeito reaches 20% of the vote (!!), an outsized strength found in few other places in Japan.
On the other hand, Komeito traditionally has very weak results in the progressive suburban areas of Tokyo like the wards of Setagaya & Shibuya, or the cities of Musashino and Kodaira. In fact, the LDP’s best ward, Chiyoda, was Komeito’s weakest (44.1% - 4.9% in 2019:
Given that we had seen the correlation with the LDP before, I looked into it with the Japanese Communist Party, and it came out positive: 0.330. It perhaps says something about the age and socioeconomic background of both parties’ supporters.
CDP「立憲民主党」
In 2019 (House of Councillors Election), the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan won 17.7% of the vote and 1.020.185 votes in Tokyo Prefecture:
From 2014 (in comparison to the Democratic Party): An increase 1.4% and 80.390 more votes (the increase in the share of the vote is 6.1% if we include the small DPFP).
The election of 2017 to the Tokyo Assembly was the last for the Democratic Party before its dissolution. Since then, through two national elections (2017 for the HoR & 2019 for the HoC), the CDPJ has consolidated its space as a centre-left establishment party with strong support in the traditional progressive areas of Tokyo, which you can easily delineate in the map below:
From the wards of Nakano and Suginami, from the west of Shinjuku, along the Chuo train line [中央線」to the cities of Kodaira and Tachikawa, with stops in Mitaka or Musashino.
The party is also strong further south in the areas along the Tama River and the border with Kanagawa (another good prefecture for them) in cities like Hino, Tama or Chofu, and the accommodated communities of Setagaya.
The CDPJ and the Japanese Communist Party sometimes team up but they find support in very different communities. I did a correlation and it came out negative, as I expected it: -0.374
A simple map comparison shows it too.
JCP「共産党」
In 2019 (House of Councillors Election), the Japanese Communist Party won 11.3% of the vote and 651.338 votes in Tokyo Prefecture:
From 2014: A decrease of -4.1% and 234.5898 fewer votes, a sizable drop.
In comparison to the rest of the prefecture, JCP is stronger in a stretch of land that borders Saitama Prefecture in the north. From the ward of Katsushika in the eastern edge, through Arakawa, Kita and Itabashi wards, towards the peninsula of Kiyose and the neighbouring municipalities that touch upon the Sayama Lake「狭山湖」 where the party gets close to 15% of the vote.
In the last 15 years, the party has been in a slow decline, in raw votes and in the share of the vote. That slide has been especially noticeable in those districts where the CDPJ has become dominant: the progressive, suburban areas to the west of Shibuya and Shinjuku.
In searching for a radical negative correlation, I found one between LDP & the JCP: -0.6100
DPFP「国民民主党」
In 2019 (House of Councillors Election), the Democratic Party for the People won 4.7% of the vote and 272.990 votes in Tokyo Prefecture:
A direct comparison is not possible because the DPFP, the official and legal successor of the Democratic Party, did not exist before 2019.
This small party formed by centrist and right-of-centre Opposition politicians that decided not to join the CDPJ, out of the remnants of the DP, found its best results in 2019 in areas of western Tokyo where Yuriko Koike’s Party Hope had been especially powerful, like Hamura, Ome, Chofu or Kashima in national and regional elections. It’s in these cities where, in the current election, Koike’s Tomin First candidates are playing defence against the LDP.
The DPFP itself, a priori, does not stand a chance of winning a single seat in the Tokyo Assembly.
ISHIN NO KAI「維新の会」
In 2019 (House of Councillors Election), Ishin no Kai won 8.3% of the vote and 479.908 fewer votes in Tokyo Prefecture:
From 2014: A decrease of -5.9% and 336.139 fewer votes.
In the case of Ishin, the comparison is difficult because in 2014 the party, which was born in Osaka, had expanded to Ishin no To「維新の党」, a national party which then included right-wing elements and defections from the LDP like the former Governor of Tokyo Ishihara Shintaro. A few months later, they split up and the party went back to Osaka. Now, Ishin no Kai is in its second national expansion now.
Anyways. The support for Ishin no Kai has been steadily growing, however, its support is reduced to Tokyo Bay and the wards that run along the Keihin-Tohoku Line「京浜東北線」 from Chiyoda to Ota Ward through Minato and Shinagawa.
It’s in these wards where the party expects to pick up some seats in the current election.
The ward of Kita is also in its sights for reasons I will explain in Part 2 of the preview, coming up in the next few days!
REIWA「れいわ新選組」
In 2019 (House of Councillors Election), Reiwa won 7.9% of the vote and 458.151 votes in Tokyo Prefecture.
The party, which was formed for that election, had some impressive results, in particular, in the progressive heartland of Tokyo, where the CDPJ dominates: Setagaya, Musashino or Mitaka, to name some.
It had its best results in Shibuya, with more than 12% of the vote.
Nevertheless, it’s going to be very difficult for Reiwa to win a seat, even though it’s only running candidates in some of the most populated districts, like Setagaya (in cases like this, with 8 seats up for grabs, you can win some rather easily with less than 10% of the vote…).
In Tokyo as a whole, the correlation between Reiwa and the CDPJ was very weak. However, if I limited it to the *Tokyo Wards*「特別区」, it came out positive, very strongly: 0.848.
These are the political and electoral conditions in which the different parties arrive at the election on the 4th of July, next Sunday. Although there are several assumptions that seem unassailable, we’ll have to wait for the final results in order to weigh whether the collapse of Tomin First or the victory of the LDP developed as it had been predicted. The final reading of the results in two weeks likely will not be as straightforward as we think now.
However, whatever happens, it’s undeniable it’ll leave a mark in the state of politics in Japan, just a few months away from the general election.
Thank you so much for reading PART 1 of the preview for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election.
In just a few days, I’ll post the second and final part. SIGN UP below if you don't wanna miss it right in your inbox.
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