2021 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election: Part 2
Preview Part 2: The Election of 2021 (with One Day to Go) & a Prediction!
Hello everyone, thank you for visiting my newsletter NIHONPOLITICS on this special edition. I’m so happy you all liked part one, which you can READ HERE again. 有難いです.
This is PART 2 of the preview of Tokyo’s Metropolitan Assembly Election, which will take place tomorrw (4th of July)). In the first part, published on Wednesday I presented the state of politics and the strength of the different political parties in Tokyo as well as the election results from 2013 and 2017.
Now, in PART 2, I want to focus on the election of 2021, present the stage and do some predictions「予想」of what could happen in just hours!
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On the Fourth of July of 2021, the people of Tokyo will go to the polls to elect the member of its 127-member Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly「東京都議会」.
In the coming post, I would like to do a preview of this election, the most important one left before the summer. The race is set to become a preliminary fight just months before the general election takes place (at the latest, in October) in which the LDP and Prime Minister will have to defend the control of the Diet.
First of all, let’s check out the following maps and keep them in hand:
In the previous post HERE, I analyzed the results in the two previous elections.
2013 Election Results: ASAHI SHINBUN👇👇
2017 Election Results: NHK👇👇
This Year’s Election: Keys to the Race
There are several keys to understanding the election and the moment in which the different political parties arrive at this election:
The presence of Tomin First:
Tomin First, which dominated the election of 2017, arrives at this election weakened in comparison and ready to lose a lot of seats. Anything short of that would be a big surprise. In fact, it is widely expected they lose control of the Assembly as well as its position as the largest party. During the last years, several defections as well as the debilitated links with Governor Yuriko Koike, leave them in a precarious position. The fast growth of Tomin in 2017, which was helped by the inclusion of a large number of former Democratic Party members, and even some from the LDP, might bring their demise: some of them are running again for reelection under the Tomin banner, however, others are back, for example, in the CDPJ fold.
In 2017, Tomin candidates won the crazy number of 1.8 million votes. If Tomin collapses across the board, that should provide the LDP and even the CDPJ dozens of seats. It’ll depend on:
a) the level of participation in the campaign supporting the candidates by Governor Koike,
b) the seniority and local strength of each Tomin incumbent, with a radical difference been 2017 newbies and the members that had won as LDP or DP members before 2017.
Nevertheless, the latest polls show a somewhat larger than expected support for Tomin First, which might hold above double digits in the share of the vote, despite the non-presence of Governor Yuriko Koike which has been hospitalized for days for “severe fatigue”…
Coordination of the Opposition:
The two main opposition parties arrive at the election with the goal and expectation to growing considerably in comparison to 2017 when the moribund Minshintou「民進党」finally collapsed. In fact, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan did not exist before, so this is the first election for them: from 5 seats won by the DP, the CDPJ is set to quadruple its seats to a total of between 20-25, consolidating a political space in the center-left of the political spectrum in an urban prefecture like Tokyo that’s favorable to them. At the same time, the Japanese Communist Party, in its stronghold of Tokyo, would like to retain its 19 seats or even grow a little despite the competition with the CDPJ.
We should expect both parties to win between 35-45 seats, a considerable comeback from 2017 and an improvement over 2013.
The revamped alliance between LDP & Komeito:
After their ties were broken in 2017, Komeito and the Liberal Democratic Party are back together in the search of jointly controlling the Tokyo Assembly: they need 64 seats. Komeito wants to maintain its 23 seats in the Assembly, while the LDP seeks to cross the barrier of 40 seats. In 2017, Komeito broke publicly with the local LDP, unpopular at the time, and formed an alliance with Yuriko Koike’s Tomon First, managing to take control of the Assembly during the last four years.
In 2021, however, the LDP does not arrive at the election in a favorable moment either, damaged by the high disapproval numbers, especially among Tokyoites, of the national government of PM Suga. In spite of it, we can expect a fairly significant number of pickups by the party, if only because of the electoral dynamics of the districts, where a possible collapse of Tomin First, inflated in seats after 2017, would provide them that windfall of seats.
Komeito, on the other hand, comes to the election ready to keep the seats they have, even though several incumbents are not running for reelection and there are a lot of doubts about the outreach operations of the party and the Buddhist sect behind it Soka Gakkai in times of pandemic restrictions: the party is already bracing itself to lose seats:
I wonder if after the votes are in, the story of the night won’t be the collapse of Tomin First but Komeito’s…
As the Tokyo Shinbun remembers, the Election for the Tokyo Assembly plays a pivotal role in Komeito, a party that was born in Tokyo. It’s central to the party’s existence and strength. In fact, since 1989, Komeito has managed to win an awfully consistent number of seats (23-26), and since 2000 it has won 23 seats in *every election*.
In 2021, that might be in danger.⚠️
Reiwa & DPFP struggle; the Social Democrats give up:
The Opposition parties Reiwa Shinsengumi and the Democratic Party for the People are struggling to gain seats in the election. Even though Tokyo is the home ground of his leader Yamamoto Taro, it’ll be very difficult for Reiwa to win even a single seat. They are running a few candidates in big districts like Setagaya, where just a few thousand of votes can give you a seat, however, the presence of JCP & CDPJ makes it unlikely.
The DPFP, very weakened nationally, is in an even more precarious position, as its centrist supporters are likely to vote for Tomin First OR the CDPJ.
The Social Democratic Party of Japan, by the way, is not running any candidate his year.
Ishin no Kai looks to grow:
In the last years, Ishin no Kai has been getting stronger in Tokyo, winning close to 10% of the vote in 2019. In this election, the party will seek to create its own caucus, winning seats in districts like Ota, Kita and Shinagawa, its strongholds in Tokyo. They already won one seat in Ota Ward in 2017. Not they have chances to win 1 or 2 seats, not more.
There are several questions to resolve once the votes are counted on the night of the 4th of July. Their answer will tell us a lot about how to read the night results we are expecting on Sunday night!
Will the LDP get to 50 seats?
The party currently has 23, a record-low.
Will Komeito maintain its 23 seats for the 5th election in a row?
There’re a lot of doubts within Komeito. They’re specially worried about Tohsima, Meguro, Nakano and KitaTama 3.
Will Tomin First fall below 10 seats?
In 2017, Tomin won 55 eats, of which it currently has 46 in the Assembly. The latest polls assure the party close to 15 seats.
Will the JCP improve over its 19 seats won in 2017?
The 19 seats won in 2017 were its best result since 1997, when they won 26.
Will the CDPJ get more than 20 seats, quadrupling its current incumbents?
It’s the party’s first election to the Tokyo Assembly.
Will Ishin no Kai be able to win a seat outside of Ota Ward?
Its main chances are in Ota, Setagaya, Nerima and Suginami, all of them districts with more than 6 seats.
Will Seikastu Network improve over its worst result ever 1 seat in 2017?
Besides maintaining its seat in KitaTama 2, it has possibilities in Setagaya and Suginami (the party has only 3 candidates)
Will Reiwa & DPFP manage to win at least one seat each?
Set of Candidates and projections
There are 42 different districts (check them all out here) in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, which range from single-member districts, like Chiyoda Ward, to other with 8 seats like Ota Ward, the most populated ones. All in all,
127 seats are up for grabs.
64 seats needed to win a majority
In the coming section, I would like to present the state「情勢」 of each district and the candidates for the election in order to make a projection/prediction「予想」. Let’s go!
Signs to follow by color: Political parties
Tomin First=🟢
LDP=🔴
Komeito=☸️
JCP=🟣
CDPJ=🔵
Ishin no Kai=🟡
Seikatsu Network=👭🏼
Chances of taking a seat (予想):
UP=⬆️ ; FIGHT=🔛 ; DOWN=⬇️
(The number of ⬆️ cannot surpass the number of seats in each district)
These are final predictions. At the risk of getting it wrong, I want to play!
Chiyoda Ward・千代田区 (1 seat) 🟢 (pop. 58k)
In 2017 the seat was won by Tomin First candidate Higuchi Takaaki (樋口高顕) who in January of this year became Mayor of the Ward, leaving, thus, the seat currently vacant.
⬆️Uchida Naoyuki/内田 直之 (LDP)
🔛Inc. Taira Keishou/平 慶翔 (Tomin)1
⬇️Tomita Naoki/冨田 なおき (JCP)
⬇️Hamamori Kaori/はまもり かおり (Indp)
Uchida Naoyuki, the LDP candidate, is the son-in-law of Uchida Shigeru/内田茂, a powerful LDP member of the Tokyo Assembly who had represented Chiyoda itself in the Tokyo Assembly since 1989 until he retired in 20172. However, divisions and bad blood existing now within the LDP towards Shigeru might end up impacting his son-in-low now.
Chuo Ward・中央区 (1 seat) 🟢 (pop: 141k)
Incumbent Saigo Ayumi (西郷歩美) won as Tomin First in 2017 and became part of Ishin no Kai later, but she isn’t running for reelection.
⬆️Ishijima Hideki/石島 ひでき (LDP)
⬇️Ikebe Ai/いけべ 愛 (Tomin)
⬇️Kishino Tomoyasu/岸野 ともやす (Ishin)
⬇️Matsuda Tomoko/松田 朝子 (CDPJ)
⬇️Kashima Kouin/鹿島 公胤 (Indp)
Ishijima Hideki, a long-term member of the Chuo Ward Council, already was the LDP candidate in 2017, but he lost by 7.8k votes. In 2013, he had run under the みんなの党 banner. Third time’s the charm?
Musashino City・武蔵野市 (1 seat) 🟢 (pop: 144k)
In the last four national elections, the city of Musashino, to the west of Shinjuku, was the place where the Opposition parties found their best results in the whole Tokyo Metropolis: averaging between 45% and 50% of the vote (51% in the HoC election of 2019).
⬆️Igarashi Eri/五十嵐 えり (CDPJ)
🔛Inc. Suzuki Kunikazu/鈴木 邦和 (Tomin)
🔛Tsuchiya Yuuko/土屋 ゆう子 (LDP)
⬇️Endo Fumiaki/遠藤 ふみあき (Indp)
Igarashi Eri seeks to represent the city as part of an Opposition party for the first time since 2009.
Ome City・青梅市 (1 seat) 🟢 (pop: 137k)
In 2017, Ome was one of the only 8 cities in Tokyo Metropolis where Yuriko Koike’s 希望の党 won more than 20% in that year’s national election. A few months before, in the Assembly election, the current incumbent Morimura won a very healthy 55% of the vote. Will he maintain that in a face-to-face battle against an LDP candidate now?
🔛Inc. Morimura Takayuki/森村 たかゆき (Tomin)
⬆️Yamazaki Masaru/山﨑 勝 (LDP)
Akishima City・昭島市 (1 seat) 🟢 (pop: 111k)
Politically speaking, Akishima is very similar to Ome City, where another strong incumbent, who won 57% in 2017, seeks reelection from Tomin First:
🔛Inc. Uchiyama Shingo/内山 真吾 (Tomin)
⬆️Anbo Mitsuru/安保 みつる (LDP)
⬇️Nagamoto Kyouko/永元 きょう子 (JCP)
Koganei City・小金井市 (1 seat) 🟢 (pop: 121k)
In the Upper House Election of 2019, Koganei was the fifth-best city for the Opposition parties in the Tokyo Metropolis (they won 48.8% of the vote). As such, the candidacy of a popular woman like Kando Akiko, linked to the Green Party, should provide a pick-up opportunity for them here (the presence of a JCP candidate in 2017 made her lose by just 2.5k votes).
⬇️Inc. Tsujino Eisaku/つじの 栄作 (Tomin)
🔛Hirose Maki/広瀬 まき (LDP)
⬆️Kando Akiko/漢人 あきこ (Opposition)
Tokyo Islands・東京島部 (1 seat) 🔴
This district is formed by 9 different islands part of the Tokyo Prefecture. Miyake Masahiko (三宅正彦) seeks a 4th term:
⬆️Inc. Miyake Masahiko/三宅正彦 (LDP)
⬇️Kenji/梅木 けんじ (JCP)
Minato Ward・港区 (2 seats) 🟢🔴 (pop: 243k)
Although Minato is a very strong ward for the LDP (39% in 2019), the Opposition could have a chance to snag a seat with Otsuka Takaaki, who lost his seat back in 2009. However, the presence of a communist candidate could play the role of a spoiler…
🔛Inc. Irie Nobuko/入江伸子 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc Kanno Koichi/菅野弘 (LDP)
⬆️Otsuka Takaaki/大塚 たかあき (CDPJ)
⬇️Noguchi Hiroki/野口 ひろき (JCP)
⬇️Tamaki Shinri/玉木 真理 (Indp)
Bunkyo Ward ・文京区 (2 seats) 🟢🔴 (pop: 219k)
The hills of Bunkyo it make one of the best wards in Tokyo for the Japanese Communist Party. In the last national elections, they won a range of 12%-17% of the vote. This time around, Fukute Yuuko should be able to win a seat, being now the lone Opposition candidate. In fact, in 2017, she fell just 200 votes short!
🔛Inc. Masuko Hiroki/増子博樹 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Nakaya Fumitaka/中屋文孝 (LDP)
⬆️Fukute Yuuko/福手裕子 (JCP)
Taito Ward・台東区 (2 seats) 🟢🟢 (pop: 198k)
In 2017, Tomin First managed to win both seats in Taito, a difficult feat to repeat. Nakayama is now a Tomin candidate. He ran as an independent in 2017 after being part of the Democratic Party of Japan (previously Hosaka had been part of the LDP).
🔛Inc. Hosaka Masahiro/保坂真宏 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Nakayama Hiroyuki/中山寛進 (Tomin)
⬆️Suzuki Jun/鈴木 純 (LDP)
⬇️Koyanagi Shigeru/小柳 茂 (JCP)
Shibuya Ward・渋谷区 (2 seats) 🟢🟢 (pop: 224k)
Tomin First also managed to win both seats in Shibuya3 in 2017. It’ll be extremely difficult to repeat that.
🔛Inc. Ryuuen Airi/龍円愛梨 (Tomin)
🔛Inc. Ootsu Hiroko/大津 ひろ子 (Tomin)
⬆️Maeda Kazushige/前田 和茂 (LDP)
⬆️Takada Takashi/中田 たかし (CDPJ)
Arakawa Ward・荒川区 (2 seats) ☸️🟢 (pop: 212k)
Despite the large numbers of candidates for a 2-seats district, the LDP & Komeito are favored here.
⬆️Inc. Keino Shinichi/慶野信一 (Komeito)
🔛Inc. Takiguchi Gaku/滝口学 (Tomin)
⬆️Sasayama Chisou/さきやま 知尚 (LDP)
⬇️Suzuki Kenichi/鈴木 けんいち (JCP)
⬇️Yamamoto Gou/山本 ごう (Indp)
⬇️Yamakawa Yuuna/山川 ゆうな (Indp)
Tachikawa City・立川市 (2 seats) 🟢🔴 (pop: 176k)
In Tachikawa, Incumbent Mazuda Ichiro「増田一郎」who won in 2017 as a Tomin First candidate, is not running for reelection. Sakai Daishi, a previous DP incumbent who lost in 2017, will seek to regain his seat, and it should be doable: in 2019 he lost the race for Mayor of the city by only 200 votes!
⬆️Inc. Shimizu Kouji/清水孝治 (LDP)
⬆️Sakai Daishi/酒井 大史 (CDPJ)
⬇️Ishitobi Kaori/石飛 香織 (Tomin)
Mitaka City・三鷹市 (2 seats) 🟢🔵 (pop: 186k)
Located to the south of Musashino, Mitaka is the third best city for the Opposition parties. In 2019, they won 49% of the vote here.
🔛Inc. Yamada Hitoshi/山田浩史 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Nakamura Hiroshi/中村洋 (CDPJ)
⬆️Kato Koji/加藤 こうじ (LDP)
Fuchu City・府中市 (2 seats) 🟢🟢 (pop: 260k)
Tomin First made a clean sweep in the city, winning its two seats in 2017. However, only one of them is running for reelection here, but as an independent. The other one will seek a seat in Machida City.
⬆️Inc. Koyama Kunihiko/小山有彦 (Independent)
⬆️Suzuki Kinji/鈴木 錦治 (LDP)
🔛Karasawa Chihei/からさわ 地平 (JCP)
Koyama Kunihiko until 2017 had been a DP incumbent. That should make him a favorite for reelection. I don’t think the JCP has the strength to take a seat in Fuchu by itself alone…
Kodaira City・小平市 (2 seats) 🟢🔴 (pop: 190k)
In Kodaira City, none of the incumbents is running for reelection: Sano Ikuo (佐野郁夫), from Tomin First and LDP’s Takahashi Nobuhiro (高橋信博).
⬆️Isoyama Ryo/磯山亮 (LDP)
⬆️Takei Youko/竹井ようこ (CDPJ)
Because there are only two candidates, both have already been declared winners! A pick-up by the CDPJ in a city very favorable to them, as it was shown in April’s race for Mayor. The LDP keeps a seat.
Hino City・日野市 (2 seats) 🟢🔴 (pop: 186k)
Sugawara Naoshi (菅原直志) is running for a second term as a Tomin First candidate. The LDP candidate is Nishino Masahito (西野正人) who replaced the previous LDP incumbent (who had died) after winning a special election in 2020. In that special election, JCP’s Shimizu ran and lost to Nishino by 16k votes.
🔛Inc. Sugawara Naoshi/菅原 直志 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Nishino Masahito/西野 正人 (LDP)
⬆️Shimizu Toshiko/清水 とし子 (JCP)
Nishi-Tokyo City・西東京市 (2 seats) 🟢🔵
In 2017, Tomin First won both seats, even though just one of them is running for the election in the same party, Kiriyama Hitomi (桐山ひとみ). The other one, Ishige Shigeru (石毛茂) is running as a CDPJ candidate now.
🔛Inc. Kiriyama Hitomi/桐山 ひとみ (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Ishige Shigeru/石毛 しげる (CDPJ)
⬆️Hamanaka Norikata/浜中 のりかた (LDP)
⬇️Ideshige Mitsuko/いでしげ 美津子 (JCP)
Nishi-Tama (Fussa-Hamura-Akiruno-Mizuho-Hinode-Hinohara-Okutama)・西多摩「福生市-羽村市-あきる野市-瑞穂市-日の出町-檜原村-奥多摩町」(2 seats) 🟢🔴 (pop: 271k)
All these villages in the western range of Tokyo form a single district. The candidacy of a single Opposition candidate might make them win a seat.
🔛Inc. Shimizu Yasuko/清水康子 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Tamura Toshimitsu/田村利光 (LDP)
⬆️Miyazaki Tarou/宮﨑 太朗 (CDPJ)
Minami-Tama (Tama City & Inagi City)・南多摩「多摩市-稲城市」(2 seats) 🟢🟢 (pop: 233k)
In this district formed by the cities of Tama & Inagi, the current CDPJ candidate seeking reelection was elected as Tomin First in 2017. It’s going to be a fierce battle to win both seats, especially because of the presence of a strong incumbent like Ishikawa Ryouichi, a former Mayor of Inagi.
🔛Inc. Saitou Reina/斉藤 れいな (CDPJ)
⬆️Inc. Ishikawa Ryouichi/石川 良一 (Tomin)
⬆️Koiso Akira/小礒 明 (LDP)
⬇️Uesugi Tadashi/上杉 ただし (JCP)
Kita-Tama 2 (Kokubunji-Kunitachi)・北多摩2「国分寺市-国立市」(2 seats) 🟢👭🏼 (pop: 202k)
The cities of Kokubunji & Kunitachi are the origin of Sekatsu Network「生活・ネットワーク」a centrist, feminist and local grassroots party, where they won their first seat in 1985. Their only current incumbent in the Assembly since 2017, Yamauchi Reiko (山内玲子), is retiring.
🔛Inc. Okamoto Tooki/岡本光樹 (Tomin)
⬆️Mothashi Takumi/本橋 たくみ (LDP)
⬆️Iwanaga Yasuyo/岩永 やす代 (Seikatsu)
🔛Okitsu Hidenori/おきつ 秀憲 (DPFP)
Kita-Tama 4 (Kiyose-Higashikurume)・北多摩4「清瀬市-東久留米市」(2 seats) 🟢🟣 (pop: 190k)
Hara Noriko is likely to hold her seat in a JCP stronghold.
🔛Inc. Hosoya Shouko/細谷祥子 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Hara Noriko/原紀子 (JCP)
⬆️Shibuya Nobuyuki/渋谷 のぶゆき (LDP)
Sumida Ward・墨田区 (3 seats) 🟢☸️🔴 (pop: 256k)
As the fifth most favorable ward of Tokyo towards the LDP and Komeito, which is strong here, we should expect a sweep of two LDP and one Komeito candidate winning this year. The Opposition should not have the strength, at all, here to sneak in a win, with only three seats at play…
⬆️Inc. Narikiyo Risako/成清梨沙子 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Kato Masayuki/加藤雅之 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Kawamatsu Shinichiro/川松真一朗 (LDP)
🔛Sakurai Hiroyuki/桜井 ひろゆき (LDP)
⬇️Oozawa Noboru/大沢 昇 (DPFP)
⬇️Itou Daiki/伊藤 大気 (JCP)
Meguro Ward・目黒区 (3 seats) 🟢☸️🟣 (pop: 277k)
Meguro is set to become a food fight, with ominous implications for the Opposition and the LDP (its two candidates lost their seats in 2017). Both are running candidates that could end up dividing their overall vote. Taking that very real risk into account, the CDPJ is probably betting on its superior strength in Meguro (in 2019: CDPJ 19 %; JCP 9.7%) to take the third seat over the communists, which are not strong here despite Hoshimi Teiko winning a seat in 2017. Risky situation. It’s the same for the LDP to have 2 candidates in a 3-seat district…
🔛Inc. Ito Yu/伊藤悠 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Saito Yasuhiro/斉藤泰宏 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Hoshimi Teiko/星見定子 (JCP)
🔛Nishizaki Tsubasa/西崎 つばさ (CDPJ)
⬆️Suzuki Takamichi/鈴木 隆道 (LDP)
🔛Kuriyama Yoshiji/栗山 よしじ (LDP)
Nakano Ward・中野区 (3 seats) 🟢☸️🔵 (pop: 328k)
Komeito has been sounding alarms all week about this seat and its incumbent Takakura…
⬆️Inc. Ariki Chiharo/荒木千陽 (Tomin)
🔛Inc. Takakura Ryosei/高倉良生 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Nishizawa Keita/西沢圭太 (CDPJ)
⬆️Idei Ryousuke/いでい 良輔 (LDP)
Toshima Ward・豊島区 (3 seats) 🟢☸️🟣 (pop: 291k)
Same situation as Nakano: Komeito seat at risk?
🔛Inc. Motohashi Hirotaka/本橋弘隆 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Nagahashi Keiichi/長橋桂一 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Yonekura Haruna/米倉春奈 (JCP)
⬆️Hori Koudou/堀 宏道 (LDP)
Kita Ward・北区 (3 seats) ☸️🟣🔴 (pop: 341k)
Even though Tomin First took a seat in 2017, its member Otokita Shun changed seats to the House of Councilors of the Diet in 2019 becoming part of Ishin no Kai then. Thus, a special election took place in 2020 in which the LDP’s Yamada Kanako (やまだ 加奈子) won. She is running again but this time without support from Komeito, who has its own in the race.
As the home ground of Otokita Shun, Ishin no Kai has a real chance of picking up a seat here. At least, It’ll be competitive for sure.
⬆️Inc. Omatsu Akira/大松成 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Sone Hajime/曽根肇 (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Yamada Kanako/やまだ 加奈子 (LDP
🔛Sato Koto/佐藤 こと (Ishin)
⬇️Hayashimoto Maki/林元 まき (Tomin)
Kita-Tama 1 (Higashimurayama-Higashiyamato-Musashimurayama)・北多摩1「東村山市-東大和市-武蔵村山市」 (3 seats) 🟢☸️🟣 (pop: 304k)
These three cities to the south of Sayama Lake, on the border with the Prefecture of Saitama, are among the best in Tokyo for two parties: an average of 17.3% for Komeito and 14.3% for the JCP.
The presence of a new candidate by the CDPJ might put at risk the seat won by the JCP in the last two elections though.
⬇️Inc. Sekino Takanari/関野杜成 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Tanimura Takahiko/谷村孝彦 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Ozaki Ayako/尾崎あや子 (JCP)
🔛Suzuki Emiko/鈴木 えみこ (CDPJ)
⬆️Kitakubo Masamichi/北久保 まさみち (LDP)
Kita-Tama 3 (Chofu-Komae)・北多摩3「調布市-狛江市」(3 seats) 🟢☸️🔴 (pop: 324k)
The third seat in 2017 was won by a JCP candidate, Ibi Masatoshi (井樋匡利). However, he had to resign later after his son was caught in a sexual scandal. Thus, the newly elected incumbent, LDP’s Hayasi Akihiro (林あきひろ) will seek a new term.
⬆️Inc. Nakajima Yoshio/中嶋義雄 (Komeito)
🔛Inc. Ozaki Daisuke/尾崎大介 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Hayasi Akihiro/林あきひろ (LDP)
⬇️Onodera Tooro/小野寺 とおる (Indp)
🔛Kato Yoshiya/加藤 良哉 (CDPJ)
⬆️Tanaka Tomoko/田中 とも子 (JCP)
Shinjuku Ward・新宿区 (4 seats) 🟢🟣☸️🔴 (pop: 333k)
A lot of candidates for the 4 seats of Shinjuku.
🔛Inc. Moriguchi Tsukasa/森口つかさ (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Ooyama Tomoko/大山とも子 (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Kojou Masao/古城将夫 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Akita Ichirou/秋田 一郎 (LDP)
🔛Yoshizumi Haruo/吉住 はるお (LDP)
🔛Mikumo Takamasa/みくも たかまさ (CDPJ)
⬇️Iida Yoshihiro/いいだ 佳宏 (indp)
⬇️Saotome Tomoko/さおとめ 智子 (Indp)
⬇️Uetsuka Tetsuji/上塚 てつじ (Ishin)
Koto Ward・江東区 (4 seats) 🟢🔴☸️🟣 (pop: 498k)
Fight between the JCP incumbent and the CDP candidate for one seat in Koto Ward.
🔛Inc. Shirato Tarou/白戸太朗 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Yamazaki Ikki/山崎一輝 (LDP)
⬆️Inc. Hosoda Isamu/細田勇 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Azegami Miwako/畔上三和子 (JCP)
🔛Takahashi Megumi/高橋 めぐみ (LDP)
🔛Takano Hayato/高野 はやと (CDPJ)
⬇️Fujikawa Hiroaki/藤川 ひろあき (Indp)
Shinagawa Ward・品川区 (4 seats) 🟢🟢☸️🟣
Their performance in 2017 allowed Tomin First to win the top two seats in Shinagawa, however, neither of them is running again under the same banner. Morisawa Kyoko (森澤恭子) will run as an independent while Yamauchi Akira (山内晃) retires.
🔛Inc. Morisawa Kyoko/森澤恭子 (Indp)
⬆️Inc. Ito Koichi/伊藤興一 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Shiraishi Tamio/白石民男 (JCP)
⬆️Tanaka Takeshi/田中 たけし (LDP)
⬇️Tsutsui Yousuke/筒井 ようすけ (Tomin)
⬆️Abe Yumiko/あべ 祐美子 (CDPJ)
Katsushika Ward・葛飾区 (4 seats)🟢☸️🟣🔴 (pop: 442k)
Veteran 5-term member from Komeito Nogami Junko (野上純子) is retiring but his replacement should easily win too.
⬆️Inc. Yonekawa Daijirou/米川大二郎 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Izumi Naomi/和泉尚美 (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Funasaka Chikao/舟坂誓生 (LDP)
⬆️Kita Tsuyoshi/北口 つよし (Komeito)
⬇️Takahashi Junya/高橋 じゅんや (Indp)
🔛Hirata Mitsuyoshi/平田 みつよし (LDP)
⬇️Iwasaki Koutarou/いわさき 孝太郎 (CDPJ)
⬇️Kawai Yuusuke/河合 ゆうすけ (Indp)
Machida City・町田市 (4 seats) 🟢☸️🟣🔴 (pop: 432k)
In Machida City, a fierce fight is set to take place. Two of the incumbents are not running for reelection: Okuzawa Takahiro/奥沢高広 (Tomin) and LDP’s Yoshiwara Osamu/吉原修.
Furthermore, the Tomin candidate, Fujii Akira (藤井晃) won his 2017 his seat in another place, in Fuchu City.
🔛Inc. Ikegawa Yuuichi/池川友一 (JCP)
⬇️Inc. Fujii Akira/藤井晃 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Koiso Yoshihiko/小磯善彦 (Komeito)
⬆️Matsuoka Miyuki/松岡 みゆき (LDP)
⬇️Hoshi Daisuke/星 だいすけ (LDP)
⬇️Yoshida Tsutomu/吉田 つとむ (Indp)
⬇️Imamura Ruka/今村 路加 (Indp)
⬆️Suzuki Retsu/鈴木 烈 (CDPJ)
⬇️Furuta Makoto/古田 真 (Indp)
Itabashi Ward・板橋区 (5 seats) 🟢☸️🟢🟣🔵 (pop: 561k)
Komeito incumbent Tachibana Seigou (橘正剛) is retiring while Tomin’s Taira Keishou is running now in Chiyoda Ward.
🔛Inc. Kinoshita Fumiko/木下富美子 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Tokutome Michinobu/徳留道信 (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Miyase Eiji/宮瀬英治 (CDPJ)
⬆️Kouno Yuuki/河野 ゆうき(LDP)
⬆️Matsuda Yasumasa/松田 やすまさ (LDP)
⬆️Kamata Etsuko/かまた 悦子 (Komeito)
⬇️Hashimoto Kumi/橋本 久美(Indp)
🔛Maeda Junichiro/前田 順一郎 (Ishin)
⬇️Inoue Shinsuke/井上 慎介 (Indp)
Edogawa Ward・江戸川区 (5 seats)🟢☸️🟢🔴🟣 (pop: 681k)
Two previous incumbents are not running again: JCP’s Kouno Yurie (野百合恵), and Komeito’s Ueno Kazuhito (上野和彦).
⬆️Inc. Tomin’s Tanoue Ikuko/ 田之上郁子 (Tomin)
🔛Inc. Ueda Reiko 上田令子 (Indp) She was elected in 2017 as Tomin first candidate.
⬆️Inc. Udagawa Satoshi/宇田川聡史 (LDP)
🔛Maruyama Reiko/丸山 れいこ (Ishin)
🔛Oonishi Youhe/大西 洋平 (LDP)
⬆️Takehira Chiharu/竹平 ちはる (Komeito)
⬆️Hara Junko/原 純子 (JCP)
⬆️Yogi/よぎ (CDPJ)
Hachioji City・八王子市 (5 seats) ☸️🟢🟢🟣🔴 (pop: 577k)
One of the incumbents is not running for reelection: JCP’s Shimizu Hideko (清水秀子):
⬆️Inc. Higashimura Kunihiro/東村邦浩 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Morozumi Minoru (両角穣 (Tomin)
⬇️Inc. Takita Yasuhiko/滝田泰彦 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Itou Shoukou/伊藤祥広 (LDP)
⬆️Aoyagi Yukiko/アオヤギ 有希子 (JCP)
🔛Nishiyama Masaru/西山 まさる(LDP)
⬆️Sayama Takashi/須山 たかし (CDPJ)
⬇️Takizawa Keiichi/滝沢 景一 (Ishin)
Suginami Ward・杉並区 (6 seats) 🟢🟢🟣☸️🔴🔴 (pop: 563k)
In districts with more than 6 seats, the final result becomes unpredictable, even more with the presence of Tomin First, whose remaining strength we’ll have to take into account:
🔛Inc. Torii Kosuke/鳥居宏右 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Okanegakubo Kayoko/茜ヶ久保嘉代子 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Harada Akira/原田あきら (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Matsuba Tamiko/松葉多美子 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Hayasaka Yoshihiro/早坂義弘 (LDP)
⬆️Inc. Komiya Anri/小宮安里 (LDP)
🔛Komatsu Hisako/小松 久子 (Seikatsu)
⬆️Sekiguchi Kentarou/関口健太郎 (CDPJ)
🔛Yamana Kanako/山名 かなこ (Reiwa)
🔛Momose Tomoyuki/百瀬 智之 (Ishin)
Adachi Ward・足立区 (6 seats) 🟢🟣🔴☸️🟢☸️ (pop: 670k)
🔛Inc. Gotou Nami/後藤奈美 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Baba Nobuo/馬場信男 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Saito Mariko/斉藤真里子 (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Takashima Naoki/高島直樹 (LDP)
⬆️Inc. Usui Kouichi/薄井浩一 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Nakayama Nobuyuki/中山信行 (Komeito)
🔛Hocchi Yasutaka/ほっち 易隆 (LDP)
⬇️Matsumaru Kyouko/松丸 きょう子 (Indp)
⬇️Matsuura Katsuyuki/松浦 克行 (Indp)
⬇️Suetake Asunaru/末武 あすなろ (Reiwa)
⬆️Wada Aiko/和田 愛子 (CDPJ)
Nerima Ward・練馬区 (7 seats) 🟢🟢☸️🟣🔴🔵 (pop: 721k)
Nerima adds one seat to this election (6>7). From 2017, all the winners are running for a new term now. The LDP arrives damaged after the corruption scandal of Sugawara Isshu, a former METI, who has represented Nerima Ward in Tokyos’ 9th District in the Diet for years.
A long-term member of the Nerima City council, Ikejiri Seiji, is running as an independent even though he is supported by the Opposition parties.
⬆️Inc. Muramatsu Kazuki/村松一希 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Ojima Kouhei/尾島紘平 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Kobayashi Kenji/小林健二 (Komeito)
⬆️Inc. Toya Etsuko/戸谷英津子 (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Shibazaki Mikio/柴崎幹男 (LDP)
⬆️Inc. Fujii Tomonori/藤井 とものり (CDPJ)
⬆️Yamaka Akemi/やまか あけみ (LDP)
⬇️Matsuda Miki/松田 みき (Indp)
⬆️Ogawa Keiko/小川 けいこ (LDP)
🔛Wakatabi Keita/わかたび 啓太 (Ishin)
⬇️Ikejiri Seiji/池尻 成二 (Opposition)
⬇️Suzawa Hideto/すざわ ひでと (Indp)
Ota Ward・大田区 (8>7 seats) 🟢🟢☸️☸️🟣🔴🟡🔴 (pop: 717k)
Several incumbents are not running for reelection: Tomin’s Kurishita Zenkou/栗下善行, Komeito’s Fujii Hajime/藤井一 & Endo Mamoru/遠藤守, LDP’s Kamibayashi Shigeru/神林茂 and Ishin’s Yanagase Hirofumi/柳ヶ瀬裕文
⬆️Inc. Mori Ai/もり 愛 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Fujita Ryouko/藤田 綾子 (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Suzuki Akihiro/鈴木 あきひろ (LDP)
⬆️Inc. Suzuki Akimasa/鈴木 あきまさ (LDP)4
🔛Okumoto Yuri/おくもと ゆり (Tomin)
⬆️Matsuda Ryusuke/松田 りゅうすけ (Ishin)
⬆️Katsumata Satoshi/かつまた さとし (Komeito)
🔛Tamagawa Hidetoshi/玉川 ひでとし (Komeito)
⬇️Kataoka Masashi/片岡 将志 (Indp)
⬆️Saito Rie/斉藤 りえ (CDPJ)
⬇️Yamamori Hiroyuki/山森 ひろゆき(LDP)
⬇️Oka Takashi/岡 高志 (DPFP)
Setagaya Ward・世田谷区 (8 seats) 🟢🟢☸️🟣🔴🔵🔴🔴 (pop: 903k)
Komeito’s Kuribayashi Noriko/栗林のり子 is not running again.
⬆️Inc. Komatsu Daisuke/小松 ダイスケ (LDP)
🔛Inc. Fukushima Rieko/福島 りえこ (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Kimuta Motonari/木村 基成 (Tomin)
⬆️Inc. Satoyoshi Yumi/里吉 ゆみ (JCP)
⬆️Inc. Miyake Shigeki/三宅 しげき(LDP)
⬆️Inc. Yamaguchi Taku/山口 拓 (CDPJ)
🔛Inc. Ooba Yasunobu/大場 康宣 (Indp)
⬇️Sarusa Iwabuchi/サルサ 岩渕 (Indp)
⬇️Fuusawa Junko/ふうさわ 純子 (Reiwa)
⬆️Takaku Norio/たかく 則男 (Komeito)
🔛Tsuchiya Miawa/土屋 みわ (LDP)
⬆️Kazama Yutaka/風間 ゆたか (CDPJ)
⬆️🔛Sekiguchi Eriko/関口 江利子 (Seikatsu)
⬇️Sekiguchi Taichi/関口 太一 (DPFP)
⬇️Komiyama Hiroshi/込山 洋 (Indp)
🔛Okabayashi Hiroba/岡林 ひろか (Ishin)
I made the previous prediction based on the current information, polls and the political profile of each district. The trends are clear:
LDP to improve over 2017
Komeito is on the line to lose seats for the first time since 2001
JCP could improve marginally
CDP is set to win a lot of seats, improving over the DP’s results in 2013
Tomin First to lose seats and its position as the top party in the Assembly
Ishin no Kai struggle to win a second seat
Seikatsu Network could increase its seats by one or two
Reiwa & DPFP are far behind
The question is just how much these trends are exacerbated. It looks like a lot of races are so tight, a few votes might provoke big trend changes all over Tokyo.
You will be able to follow the results on Sunday on this NHK LINK
FINAL PREDICTION:
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Taira Keisho, who is running as the Tomin First candidate in Chiyoda Ward now, is one of two current incumbents from the party in Itabashi Ward, where he won 16% of the vote in 2017.
From 2009 to 2013 it was represented by DP member Kurushita Zenkou/栗下善行 who then in 2017 won a seat in Ota Ward.
In spite of it, it was in Shibuya where Governor Koike (Tomin First leader) received its lowest share of the vote in last year’s election victory, just 51.7%
LDP’S Suzuki Akimasa won his seat in a special election in 2020 to succeed Yanagase, a previous incumbent from Ishin that had become a member of the House of Councillors in 2019.